THANK YOU FOR THAT.
EDWARD LAWRENCE, VERY, VERY
MUCH.
WALL STREET HAVING A BETTER DAY
OF IT FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A
ROW.
WE HAVE MADE UP NOW ABOUT CLOSE
TO HALF THE GROUND WE WERE
LOSING, FOR EXAMPLE IN THE
S&P 500 OVER THOSE THREE PRIOR
SELL-OFF DAYS.
STILL A LOT OF VOLATILITY OUT
THERE.
I TEND TO FOCUS ON THE FEAR
GAUGE, THAT CBOE, VOLATILITY
INDEX.
IT HAD HIT CLOSE TO 40.
STILL GOING IN AND OUT OF THE
20s, WHICH IS STILL REASONABLY
HIGH, AT AROUND 19.53 RIGHT NOW.
KIND OF HEDGING THEIR BETS RIGHT
NOW.
LET’S GOCHARLES PAYNE, GET HIS
READ ON ALL OF THIS, THE
"MAKING MONEY" HOST,
BEST-SELLING AUTHOR.
CHARLES, HOW DO YOU READ THE
MARKETS THESE LAST TWO DAYS?
MORE INDICATIVE OF WHAT THEY
SHOULD BE DOING IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT OR THE THREE DAYS
PRIOR WHEN THEY WERE SELLING
LIKE CRAZY?
>> I THINK THIS IS A MARKET THAT
IS GETTING A GRIP ON THE TWO
MAJOR ISSUES.
ONE IS THE OMICRON VARIANT WHICH
YOU KNOW, YOU STARTED YOUR SHOW
POINTING OUT TRENDS IN SOUTH
AFRICA ARE VERY, GIVE US A LOT
OF OPTIMISM.
WE’VE HAD TWO STUDIES.
IN FACT THE HEADLINES THIS
MORNING, TWO STUDIES AROUND THE
WORLD THAT SORT OF CONFIRMED
THAT THIS IS A LOT LESS FATAL,
LESS HOSPITALIZATIONS AND THAT
IS WHEN THIS MARKET WAS WHICH
WAS EXTRAORDINARILY INDECISIVE
BEFORE THE OPEN AND RIGHT AFTER
THE OPEN, STARTED TO GET A BIG
HEAD OF STEAM TO THE UPSIDE.
I LIKED THE FACT YOU POINTED OUT
VOLATILITY, NEIL.
FOR A LOT OF INVESTORS THIS HAS
BEEN A TRANQUIL MARKET FOR A
LONG TIME.
THEY WILL HAVE TO GET USED TO
THIS.
SO FAR THIS DECEMBER THIS HAS
BEEN THE MOST VOLATILE MONTH OF
THE YEAR.
THIS DICE IS ABOUT 50% MORE
VOLATILE THAN ANY DECEMBER ON
AVERAGE GOING BACK TO 1953.
I SAY BUCKLE UP.
I DO LOVE THIS ACTION.
I DO LOVE THE FACT WE WERE
SMACKED DOWN ON THESE ANXIETIES
BETWEEN THE, YOU KNOW THE NEW
COVID STRAIN AND A NEW FEDERAL
RESERVE, POWELL, 3.0.
THE MARKET IS COMING TO GRIPS
WITH BOTH OF THEM.
WE HAVE TO LIVE WITH BOTH OF
THEM.
LOOKING BEYOND THAT.
THAT IS WHAT I LIKE ABOUT
MARKETS, THEY DO EVENTUALLY
ADJUST WHICH IS WHY I SPENT A
LOT OF MY TIME ASKING PEOPLE NOT
TO PANIC WHEN WE GO THROUGH
PERIODS LIKE WE’VE GONE THROUGH
HERE RECENTLY.
NEIL: YOU KNOW, A LOT OF THIS
REALLY, IN THE FUTURE DIRECTION
OF THE MARKETS WILL PROBABLY
RIDE ON HOW OMICRON IS RIDING
OUT HERE.
I’M NOT SO WORRIED ABOUT THE
VIRUS VARIANT AS MUCH AS I AM
MAYBE AN OVERREACTION TO IT.
WHEN I SEE A NUMBER OF COUNTRIES
ALL ABOUT SHUTTING DOWN, LOCKING
DOWN, CLOSING THEIR BORDERS,
WHEN I HEAR OF COMPANIES AND
OTHERS YOU KNOW, REALLY
SHELTERING THEIR WORKFORCE, YOU
KNOW, AGAIN OUT OF ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION, I GET THAT.
THEN BIG EVENTS THAT ARE PUT OFF
AT LEAST IN-PERSON EVENTS.
WHO KNOWS WHAT BILL DE BLASIO
WILL RULE ON SATURDAY ABOUT A
NEW YEAR’S EVE CELEBRATION IN
TIMES SQUARE, THAT IS THE KIND
OF STUFF I SUSPECT THE MARKETS
GET RATTLED ABOUT TOO, IF WE
OVERREACT.
WHAT DO YOU SEE OR THINK ABOUT
THAT?
>> YOU’RE RIGHT BUT THE MARKET
NOW STARTING TO DISCERN THAT
THERE ARE POCKETS OF PLACES LIKE
A NEW YORK CITY OR LOS ANGELES
WHICH ARE PRONE TO OVERREACT,
HAVE MORE DRACONIAN RULES, THAN
A PLACE LIKE NASHVILLE OR
FLORIDA WHERE THEY PROBABLY
WON’T.
I ACTUALLY FEEL REALLY BAD FOR
THOSE LOCAL POPULATIONS WHERE
RESTAURANTS HAVE ALREADY
SUFFERED, WHERE WORKERS ALREADY
SUFFERED.
IT IS NOT A COINCIDENCE THAT
THOSE ECONOMIES ARE COMING BACK
MUCH SLOWER, THEY HAVE FAR
GREATER UNEMPLOYMENT RATES THAN
OTHER PARTS OF COUNTRY WHICH
HAVE TAKEN A MORE PROACTIVE
APPROACH.
THERE IS ONE PLACE WE HAVE TO
WATCH CAREFULLY HOW THEY REACT.
THAT IS CHINA.
YOU STARTED OFF THE SHOW ABOUT
THE SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUE THIS IS
TALKING ABOUT CHINA, RIGHT?
EMPTY SHIPS GOING THERE AND
PREMIUM ON CONTAINERS, RATHER,
COME BACK FROM OVER THERE.
THAT IS WHY THEY’RE PAYING SO
MUCH MONEY.
ONE BORDER TOWN, 200,000 PEOPLE,
ONE PERSON GOT COVID.
THEY CLOSED DOWN.
IN PART THEY TOOK HAM-FISTED
DRACONIAN MEASURES.
THEY’RE NOT PREPARED.
WE’LL HEAR MORE ABOUT NATURAL
IMMUNITIES, ACQUIRED IMMUNITY IN
OUR COUNTRY AS IT BECOMES LESS
POLITICAL.
WE WILL FIND OUT IT HELPS US A
LOT AND GIVE AN ADVANTAGE OF
CHINA BUT OUR OVERRELIANCE ON
THEM CONTINUES TO BE A SERIOUS
PROBLEM.
I THINK THAT REFLECTS IN THE
MARKET FROM TIME TO TIME.
PRESIDENT BIDEN PROMISING
500 MILLION TESTS OR SOME WILD
NUMBER YESTERDAY, WE’LL NOT
CREATE THOSE IN AMERICA.
WHERE DO WE GET THEM FROM?
I HOPE THIS IS ALSO A LEARNING
OPPORTUNITY.
WHAT IS INTERESTING ONE OF THE
HOTTEST STOCKS IN THE LAST THREE
DAYS IS LIVE NATION.
THAT IS A CONCERT COMPANY,
RIGHT?
NEIL: RIGHT.
>> THE MARKET LOOKING OVER ALL
OF THIS BUT I THINK THE SUPPLY
CHAIN PART AND THE RELATIONSHIP
TOE COVID AND ANY NEW VARIANT IS
ALWAYS GOING TO BE A DARK CLOUD
UNTIL WE ACTUALLY START TO
PRODUCE MORE THINGS OURSELVES IN
THIS COUNTRY.
NEIL: YOU KNOW, I WAS THINKING
ABOUT YOU, CHARLIE, WHEN I WAS
WATCHING WHAT HAS BEEN DRIVING
SOME OF THE MAJOR AVERAGES.
A LOT OF IT IS JUST IN A FEW BIG
NAMES.
CERTAINLY S&P 500.
SAW "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL"
PIECE ABOUT IT.
IT IS REALLY DRIVEN BY FIVE
STOCKS, MICROSOFT, NVIDIA,
APPLE, ALPHABET, TESLA
ACCOUNTING FOR ABOUT HALF THAT
ROUGHLY 24, 25% GAIN.
>> YEAH.
NEIL: THAT IS NOT THE FIRST TIME
WE’VE SEEN NUMBERS LIKE THAT
WHERE THE FEW ARE LEADING THE
MANY BUT DOES THAT PART WORRY
YOU?
>> NEIL, I TALKED ABOUT THIS ON
MY SHOW FOR YEARS, RIGHT?
I ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS TALK
ABOUT THIS.
THIS IS WHY I GET FRUSTRATED.
I DON’T EVER SAY THAT THE DOW IS
THE MARKET.
I’M RELUCTANT TO SAY THE EVEN
THE S&P IS THE MARKET.
TO YOUR POINT WHEN FIVE NAMES OR
SIX NAMES CAN DRIVE THAT
MARKET -- I’VE SEEN DAYS
RECENTLY HAD ON THE NASDAQ 3,000
STOCKS DOWN, 900 UP AND NASDAQ
WAS UP.
THAT IS MISLEADING.
WE HAVE BEEN AN ACTUAL MARKET
IMPLOSION.
FOLKS COMPARED NOW TO LIKE THE
TECH BUBBLE.
GUESS WHAT?
OUR TECH BUBBLE BLEW UP THIS
YEAR, BENEATH THE SURFACE OUT OF
SITE.
IT HAS BEEN EXTREMELY PAINFUL.
SO IT DOES WORRY ME AND TWO
THINGS.
PEOPLE WHO GET STUCK IN SOME OF
THOSE NAMES HAVE TO MAKE MAJOR
DECISIONS.
DO YOU RIDE THEM OUT, DO YOU BUY
MORE, DO YOU SELL?
AND SO IT IS MISLEADING.
AND THAT IS WHY I THINK IT IS
ALWAYS BETTER TO SORT OF DELVE
INTO THE MARKET.
HOW MANY STOCKS WERE UP?
HOW MANY WERE DOWN?
HOW MANY NEW HIGHS?
HOW MANY NEW LOWS?
THE BIAS IS STRICTLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE.
EVEN WITH THIS REBOUND WE’RE GET
FAR MORE STOCKS HITTING NEW LOWS
AND NEW HIGHS.
THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE
TO CHANGE, IF THE BOOED MARKET
COMES BACK, THAT GIVES US
OPPORTUNITIES TO MAKE MORE MONEY
AND MORE SUSTAINABLE.
WE DON’T WANT EVERYTHING TO
HINGE ON HALF A DOZEN NAMES.
NEIL: FINALLY, CHARLES, WHILE I
HAVE YOU, DID YOU BUY
GOLDMAN SACHS WITH THAT ESTIMATE
OF PARING GDP GROWTH?
I THOUGHT IT WAS OUTLANDISH.
THE ONLY MAJOR FIRM HAD THAT
VIEW WITHOUT BUILD BACK ELDER
THE ECONOMY WILL CHURN OUT LESS
NEXT YEAR, TO MY KNOWLEDGE IT IS
THE ONLY PREMIER FIRM THAT HAS
STATED THAT.
>> YEAH.
NEIL: IT GOES AGAINST THE GRAIN
AND COMMON SENSE.
OBVIOUSLY THE PRESIDENT LEPT ON
THAT.
WHAT DID YOU MAKE OF IT?
>> I THOUGHT IT WAS POLITICAL.
I FEEL LIKE YOU KNOW WHAT?
THAT IS THE DONOR CLASS
SAYING -- I’VE ALWAYS SAID THIS
TO YOU, WALL STREET FIRMS, THE
GOLDMAN, THEY DON’T CARE.
FORGET ABOUT CONSEQUENCES, WHAT
HAPPENS TO OUR ECONOMY.
PUSH COME TO SHOVE WE WILL BAIL
THEM OUT, THE AMERICAN TAXPAYER.
SO YEAH, PUMP, PUMP, PUMP, KEEP
PUMPING, GO OVER THE CLIFF.
WE DON’T GIVE A DAMN WHERE THE
CLIFF IS, GO OVER IT, PUMP,
PUMP, PUMP, ESPECIALLY RIGHT
BEFORE BONUS TIME.
I THOUGHT WAS RIDICULOUS AND THE
AMOUNT THEY SAID IT WAS GOING TO
DECLINE.
HERE IS WHAT THEY DIDN’T SAY?
HOW MUCH WILL INFLATION DECLINE?
YOU REMEMBER OUR BUDDY JIM
ROGERS SAID GIVE ME A TRILLION
DOLLARS I WILL SHOW YOU A GOOD
TIME.
OF COURSE IF THEY POUR A
TRILLION DOLLARS INTO THE
ECONOMY IT THE GDP WILL BE
HIGHER.
WHAT WILL THE REAL GDP, WHAT IS
YOUR PURCHASING POWER GOING TO
BE IF YOU KEEP FANNING FLAMES OF
INFLATION.
IT DOESN’T MAKE SENSE IF I MAKE
A BUCK 10 AND COST ME A BUCK 20
TO LIVE.
NEIL: GOOD POINT.
PUT YOU DOWN AS MAYBE ON THAT
GOLDMAN FORECAST.
NOT TO MESS WITH YOU,.
>> I LIKE DISINGENUOUS NATURE OF
IT.
NEIL: I THOUGHT THE SAME THING.
ARE YOU KIDDING ME?
THAT WOULD BE LIKE SAYING EAT
ALL THE DESSERT YOU WANT, NEVER