In this video we're going to take a look at the fortunes of Apple and whether its
share price is set to crumble further in 2019 hello I'm David Jones from capital
comm now 2018 ended up being a pretty volatile year for tech shares we saw
weakness in the likes of Facebook Netflix Google weighing on wider stock
markets and 2019 started with a shock announcement from Apple so I thought in
this video we'll take a look at the historical performance the longer term
and the short-term outlooks for the Apple its share price so let's get
started first of all let's take a look at what was that shock announcement at
the beginning of January 2019 and the impact it had on the share price so
let's take a look at what Apple actually announced so it downgraded its revenue
expectations how much in sales it was going to get for the three months to the
29th of December 2018 so previously it had said it was expecting to get 89
billion dollars it said now the number will be more like 84 billion dollars and
the blame it said for this was the economic slowdown in China and this this
has been I think a theme for stock markets in recent months worrying about
the contraction in the Chinese economy let's take a look at the impact this
announcement had on the Apple share price so here's the Apple share price
chart so you can see the beginning of this year January the second the share
price closed just below a hundred and fifty eight dollars a share we have that
announcement when the market was closed the next day you can see the gap the
market reacts to this what it saw as a shock announcement and the shares were
trading at 144 so a sizeable fall for Apple although it has at the time of
recording clawed back some of those losses so it wasn't really a profit
warning all Apple was saying was they expected sales to be maybe slightly
worse than they were initially forecasting but because we've got so
used to good news from Apple anything that is a little bit cautious we
saw this this negative knee-jerk reaction from investors but let's delve
into things a little bit deeper and we'll take a look at their historical
performance of Apple how it did over the last year and then bring ourselves up to
date some other really big levels to watch whether you're a trader or an
investor when it comes to the Apple share price let's just run through some
of the historical performances for Apple all of these numbers are up to the
fourth of January of 2019 so the last ten years rounded up you'd have seen a
1000% return if you'd invested in Apple at the beginning of January 2009 so the
share price has increased tenfold since then the last five years haven't been
bad either you'd have almost have doubled your
money over the last five years but let's take a look a bit shorter term over the
last 12 months so during 2018 we saw the Apple share
price drop by 15% and of course this fall for tech stocks really accelerated
in the last six months of 2018 so over the last quarter the Apple share price
has lost around about a third of its value so that is a sizeable slide let's
take a look at the charts so you can see here the size of the decline Apple
shares peaked in early October up above 230 dollars a share and when we had that
announcement slipped down pretty close to 140 dollars a share it's a massive
turnaround in the last few months but let's just zoom out and look at the
bigger picture I've picked up here on the trend for the last the last three
years so we're starting here off the lows in 2016 around about $90 a share
and you can see the sell-off has centres through that trendline it did try and
hold in November of last year but it's broken below let's just pick up on some
of the old support levels to watch because I think there are levels to keep
an eye on here let me just pick those up on the chart so we do have these these
old lows from April 2017 June 2017 where the share price was bumping around and
finding support so in there in the short to medium term
$140 a share that sort of area I think is a key one to watch for Apple it's
interesting that the slide did stop ahead of that level so I think if they
can hold anywhere that's the level to watch but for now at
least they are still in this downtrend this this sell-off from the highs has
dragged them down back towards this old support so I think it's going to be a
key area to watch if you see them slide below 140 then maybe the risk is for an
even deeper sell-off for the Apple share price in a very short term looking at
the indicators down here we have an RSI down here and a MACD you can see just
just how oversold the price has become the last time the RSI was this oversold
we're back to here February 2018 and we did see the price gradually recover the
MACD is even more of an extreme so it has moved to an extreme but you have to
be careful in strong trending markets oscillators like these will give extreme
readings but the trend can still continue but for me $140 a share is the
big support to watch so you can see 140 as it really has been a really important
historical level for Apple we did see the shares stop after that revenue
downgrade earlier in January so what next for the Apple share price and what
are the key numbers that we need to keep in mind over the next few months let's
take a look so what are the key the key things to look out for well in that
announcement Tim Cook the chief exec of Apple did say that he expected the
company's earnings per share to be at an all-time record again next time around
so even though this was overshadowed by that revenue downgrade you know it
wasn't all bad news but this was broadly speaking ignored by the wider market
because it was such a surprise but of course there are concerns that recent
phones have not had enough improvements we haven't seen enough of a change to
the iPhone to convince existing iPhone users to
upgrade there's a feeling there hasn't been the same progress in terms of
to make people change and not surprisingly after the announcement
plenty of investment banks downgraded their forecasts for the Apple share
price following that announcement it has to be said that most of them the targets
are still well above where the price is trading now but but because Apple moved
down on their revenue expectations plenty of analysts moved their targets
for the Apple share price down so to wrap things up what are the key numbers
we need to keep in mind when it comes to Apple first of all their next quarterly
update so the latest earnings statement is at the end of January 29th of January
after the markets closed so that's going to be closely watched to see if sales do
come in at the 84 billion dollar mark so we expect
I think plenty of volatility in the run-up to that and immediately after
that announcement is made so that expectation is narrow for 84 billion
dollars that's the number to keep in our minds and the lowest the share price is
traded after that recent earnings downgrade is a hundred and forty two but
let's call it a hundred and forty dollars that old support so I think
those are the key numbers to be thinking about when it comes to Apple over the
next few weeks so now we have it at the end of the month we will find out just
how Apple's last quarter has been so it's going to be a really important one
to keep an eye on and we'll do an update when those numbers come out and see how
investors have reacted to the latest earnings report
we'll start wrapping things up there but as usual if you have any questions or
comments or a different view on Apple leave us a message in those comments
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wherever you get your apps from but for this update in Apple after something of
a shock start to the year will start wrapping things up there so from me
David Jones and capital com good luck with your trading in the weeks
ahead