Preventing the outbreak of violent conflict in the world and mitigating its harmful consequences
when it happens have long been primary goals of US foreign policy. Every year, CFR's Center
for Preventive Action surveys leading experts to rank plausible contingencies for their
potential impact on U.S. interests and their likelihood of occurring in the coming year.
According to the survey results and our analysis, these are some of the top preventive priorities
for the United States in 2013:
The intensification of Syria’s civil war including possible limited external intervention
was judged to have the highest priority. It was the only contingency on this year’s
survey to be considered both “likely” to happen and have a “high impact” on
U.S. interests. There are good reasons to worry that the ongoing conflict in Syria will
continue or come to a head in the next year. The rebels can now hit targets in Damscus,
which had been relatively isolated from the conflict to-date. The opposition’s much-troubled
Syrian National Council has been dropped for a new more-inclusive coalition that has earned
recognition from the U.S. and others. And even Russia and Iran, arguably Assad’s staunchest
supportors, have signaled that they are hedging their bets against the regime collapsing.
In addition to being concerned about the humanitarian consequences of the fighting, the United States
has a major interest in preventing the civil war in Syria spilling over into neighboring
Turkey—a NATO ally. There is also the potential spillover into neighboring Lebanon and Jordan,
which are already facing their own internal tensions. Perhaps the greatest concern for
the U.S., however, is the possibility that the regime in Syria could use or lose control
over its chemical weapons stockpile—a concern that President Obama has already expressed
in public warnings to the Syrian regime.
Another simmering crisis that could also come to a head in 2013 is the nuclear standoff
with Iran. Although attempts to reach a negotiated settlement of the dispute could reach fruition
in the coming months with a diplomatic agreement involving the P5 countries plus the European
Union and Iran on it’s right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes, respondents to the
survey still considered the possibility of an Israeli military strike to destroy Iran’s
nuclear facilities to be “plausible” in the coming year. Such an attack could have
a profound effect on stability in the region and embroil the United States in the conflict
that would likely ensue if Iran chooses to retaliate. This could include protecting Israel
from military attack to keeping the vital straits of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf open
to international shipping. The United States might also have to contend with a heightened
terrorist threat to the homeland.
A third preventive priority worth highlighting in 2013 is a major military incident involving
China and the United States or allied forces over various territorial disputes in East
Asia. While most respondents did not think such clashes to be likely, they did however
consider the risk to be “plausible.” The reason for this concern is straightforward.
Over the last year there has been a steady escalation in tensions in both the South China
Sea and East China Sea as China and other countries have pressed their claims to disputed
areas. Several dangerous incidents have already taken place and the potential for more clearly
exists in both areas which could directly harm U.S. interests. This applies in particular
to a potential Sino-Japanese clash over the disputed islands in the East China Sea. Public
antipathy on both sides is running high and is likely to continue. If there is an armed
clash, the United States would likely be drawn in because of its treaty obligations to Japan.
These are just three of the contingencies rated on this year’s survey. See our Preventive
Priorities Survey interactive for more information on its findings.