Launch!!! launch?! Or not?
My name is Felix, and I’m your host for today's episode of What about it.
Today is packed with incredible stuff.
We have SpaceX with a new Starship launch date estimate, a fascinating SpaceX Raptor engine Upgrade,
Falcon Heavy getting ready for another launch, and Stoke Space and their fascinating idea of the holy grail rocket!
Stay tuned, and let’s dive right in!
Starship Updates
A lot of interesting developments have happened at Starbase in the last few days.
Today it’s all about estimating what’s left to do.
And in the end, we’ll tackle the all engulfing question.
When will it finally fly?
Thanks for the name, Lunar Caveman!
Love it! Closely followed by Texas Hold’em and Hold down clam testing whachamacallit!
Always worth following me on Twitter if you want to know how these names came to be.
Whatever you want to call it, SALTY did its job.
I explained it in detail in the last episode.
The short version would be that this contraption is used to test the carrying capacity of the OLM support arms.
I’ll link the last episode all the way at the end of today’s video!
And SpaceX tested right away. The WAI Cam Chief footage you’re watching here is from January 5th.
Besides some impressive Chopstick testing in the background, you’ll also notice some subtle movement from SALTY, hanging under the OLM table.
This is exactly what we thought it would do.
Pulling up it puts at least 250 tons of weight on two of the clamps.
Then follows some thorough checking by the SpaceX work crew, and then it repeats the process with the next two.
Those tests are not done yet, but they mark a very important step on SpaceX’s way to a first orbital Starship launch.
Meanwhile, Ship 24 is still suspended under one of SpaceX’s large cranes at the launch site.
After being taken down from Suborbital Pad A, it’s been sitting here for a while.
Work is going on inside the engine section.
SpaceX might be preparing it for a full stack.
We'll know as soon as the ground handling hardpoints on top of the nose cone are taken down and the holes in the heat shield are filled in.
What points towards a full stack are a few official documents that have been released in the past few days.
This, for example, is a change of an existing road closure for yesterday, January 9th.
15 hours straight.
I don’t know, what SpaceX will do tomorrow, as I recorded this Episode on Sunday, but if anything interesting,
like a rollout or even a full stack, happens, I’ll show it right here.
If not, I’ll just use the time to talk about our new Merch design!
Becoming Multiplanetary. Design by the one and only Tony Bela, T-shirt from Champion!
Go check it out! I’m wearing it right now.
It’s amazing! A link to our merch store is in the description!
And give Tony a follow on Twitter @infographictony!
Tony, you rock!
Alright. Amazing T-shirt. The next interesting document to surface would be this one!
The latest Marine Safety Information Bulletin for Boca Chica.
Released by the US coast guard, these MSIBs are needed for any test activity that could involve over-pressure events.
For example, cryo tests and static fires.
This one includes January 10th, 12th, and January 13th, all from 8 am to 8 pm.
And to be on the safe side, it’s always worth checking the Cameron county SpaceX road closures for Highway 4.
And these currently show road closures for Yesterday and Wednesday to Friday.
Plenty of time for SpaceX to do more testing.
Again, if there was a Booster 7 rollout and a full stack, we’ll likely see more action this week.
Jumping to the production site, there have been some interesting developments as well.
Ship 25, for example, finally lost its payload capability.
The long-awaited lift of the payload door cover has happened the same way as it happened on Ship 24,
and workers will weld it in place in the next few days.
That’s it. No more payload for yet another Starship.
It’s still unclear why SpaceX is doing this, but there are two possible reasons.
Either SpaceX just decided against delivering payload on the first few orbital launch tests, or there’s something wrong with the current design.
There are other ideas out there.
Literally. At Starbase. This, for example, is a payload door pathfinder that’s been sitting at the Starbase production site for some time now.
It shows a large door on one side of the payload fairing, and it is a completely different approach compared to the slit-like PEZ dispenser design.
And the list of design changes goes on and on.
Ship 26, for example, still has no flaps or a heat shield.
This could be SpaceX trying to concentrate purely on payload delivery.
Starlink v2 needs to be deployed as soon as possible to continue the build-up of the Starlink network.
And Starlink v2 has been designed for Starships.
So, by leaving out any reentry capability, SpaceX could try to fast-track its first payload delivery.
Concentrate on a nonreusable Starship variant and start making money.
One thing is for sure. Starship development is not cheap at all, and at some point, money needs to start coming out of it.
That does not mean that heat shields are abandoned at all.
Looking inside Tent number 3 reveals a packed pipeline.
5 Nosecones in production.
And there’s more innovation in the engine department too.
These are several new Raptor v2 engines.
All the way up to 117. And at least two of them are equipped with the new electric thrust vector controls.
This will enable SpaceX to get rid of a large portion of its Booster hydraulics systems.
And the new design, a direct result of the new engine design, can already be seen on Booster 9. SpaceX is quick at implementing new ideas!
Here’s the difference side by side.
On Booster 7, you can see the box-like hydraulic pressure units attached to the engine section, and on booster 9,
it looks much cleaner with the HPUs missing.
A direct result of SpaceX’s fast innovation cycle.
Before we get to the most important question of when we can finally expect the first orbital test flight,
take a moment and hit the like button,
subscribe to the channel and become one of our awesome channel members or Patrons and get access to countless exclusive member posts almost on
a daily basis. Alright, here it is.
When can we expect that first orbital Starship launch?
It’s tough waiting for that orbital launch.
The implications of all this are just way too sweet.
The largest rocket ever. Fully and rapidly reusable.
Permanent bases on Moon and Mars.
That’s what makes it so difficult to wait for it.
If it works, it’s the holy grail of rockets.
And we all want to see it happen yesterday.
There are a few steps left, though.
Even though Ship 24 and Booster 7 are almost done with their test campaign leading up to the launch, there are a few crucial steps left.
Right now, I fully expect Booster 7 to be rolled back to the launch site by the time you watch this.
It will be stacked onto the orbital launch mount as soon as the clamp load testing is finished.
Then SpaceX has two important steps left to do.
A wet dress rehearsal and a full 33-engine static fire of the booster.
Wet Dress rehearsal stands for a test involving every step leading up to a launch except for the ignition.
So, stack both booster 7 and Ship 24 onto each other on the OLM.
We’ve seen this before, and SpaceX knows how to do it.
It hopefully won’t be a big problem.
Once that’s done, the wet dress rehearsal can commence.
Once that is done, SpaceX will need to do the final static fire test.
Incremental tests of up to 14 engines, as seen here on NASASpaceflights Starbase Live, have successfully been done.
What’s left is the big one.
Once that is done,
SpaceX will likely prepare the orbital launch mount for the big day and roll back Ship 24 and booster 7 to the production site for final checks.
Once that’s done, everything is clear for the big day.
Musk gave a new estimate on Sunday!
When confronted with a leaked Launch date of January 31st, Musk responded by saying, “We have a real shot at late February.
March launch attempt appears highly likely”.
Take this with a grain of salt.
Musk is not crazy, stating these estimates over and over again.
He’s just judging the situation as it is right now.
A failed test or an anomaly can shift these timelines further and further back.
That’s the big problem with prototyping.
You just don’t know what will happen next.
But as of right now, the end of February is the earliest we can expect a launch, and March seems very likely!
What do you think? As always, let me know in the comments, and follow me on Twitter for more insights!
Next up on the list of very important dates in space flight, we have Falcon Heavy!
USSF-67 is getting ready for its flight, and we’ll see the next Falcon Heavy just a little more than two months after the last launch!
B1064, B1065, and B1070 are already assembled in SpaceX’s hangar next to Pad39A, and as you can see in these pictures released by SpaceX,
the side cores are flight-proven.
Both flew already on the USSF-44 mission on November 1st, 2022.
The center core B1070 is brand new and will not be recovered as its always been on Falcon Heavy flights.
It will use all of its propellant to accelerate the two classified payloads on January 12th launch.
The only time a SpaceX Falcon Heavy center core has ever managed to land was on the Arabsat-6A launch on April 11th, 2019.
But even though it managed to land on a SpaceX drone ship safely,
it did not manage to stay upright due to heavy seas and was lost on the way back.
Recovering the center core is very difficult and most of the time not even planned.
But we can prepare for an epic launch and a double booster landing back at LZ 1 and 2 at the cape, and I will be streaming the launch!
You heard me right. After a long hiatus from rocket launch streaming, I’ll be spending the evening of January 12th with all of you again,
and I honestly can’t wait for it!
So, get your popcorn ready, and let's watch a Falcon Heavy launch together!
If I can manage, even with live image from my front door!
Next up, we have Stoke Space with their unusual idea of a fully reusable rocket!
The holy grail of rockets. Fully and rapidly reusable.
That’s the new buzz term for many companies in the space industry since SpaceX started mentioning it a few years back.
That’s the new goal for young Space Startups, and rightfully so.
It promises to revolutionize the space industry, and so, with flashy videos and dubstep music in the background,
companies like Rocket lab or Relativity Space have been presenting their ideas of how to turn rapidly and fully reusable rockets into reality
for some time now.
"We are Stoke Space."
"We seed money to engine testing."
"We move faster than any rocket company in history."
"We are building the Holy Grail of rocketry ..."
It all feels like some flashy party!
The ideas couldn't be more creative.
Entirely 3D printed or even single stage to orbit with a James Bond-style fairing.
Everything seems possible, and the talents behind the ideas have the credentials to back up their bold claims too.
So they can be taken seriously.
With advisors like Hans Koenigsman from SpaceX, a team of experienced Aerospace engineers,
and funding of more than 100 million dollars from several funding rounds so far, all the elements are in place to turn an idea into reality.
After all, Musk started SpaceX with an initial funding of, you guessed it, around 100 million dollars out of his own pocket.
That money ran out quickly, though.
And what’s the idea? A tiny engine.
To be precise, many tiny engines.
30 on the second stage alone. This seems crazy at first but has a fundamental thought behind it.
Development and cost reduction.
This, for example, is a side-by-side comparison of SpaceX’s Merlin 1D, so the main engine of a Falcon 9 booster,
side by side with a Merlin MVac, which is the similarly named, but almost entirely different upper-stage engine.
By using an aerospike engine, the engine can be tiny and, most importantly, the same as in the first stage.
By using 30 engines in the upper stage alone, redundancy is extremely high, and scaling is made very easy.
Payload is being deployed from a clamp shell design fully reusable fairing.
On top of that, the inverted aerospike bell can be used as an actively cooled heat shield for reentry, avoiding fragile ceramic heat tiles.
And finally, a propulsive landing is the goal, similar to a Falcon 9 booster but without grid fins for guidance.
With the same engine design in the first and second stages, development time is cut significantly.
Testing is already underway, and Stoke Space seems very confident about its design approach.
Real Hardware, real results. That’s the slogan Stoke Space is mentioning at the end of their presentation.
Andy Lapsa, formerly a Blue Origin employee, is leading a team of 72 people,
and the goal is to have a rocket capable of sending 1.65 metric tons to low Earth orbit.
At the end of 2022, Stoke Space released a video containing their favorite 22 hot-fire tests of 22.
Get it? Engine tests are an important step, but they're only the first step of many.
Next up for the company are "hop" tests with a full-scale version of a second stage at their Moses Lake facility in Central Washington.
This prototype won't have a fairing as it would during launch, but it will still stand 19 feet or 5.8 meters tall.
There is no time window for the hop tests yet.
It might happen this year, though, and we’ll, of course, follow Stoke Space closely on their way to space!
Extremely exciting days to be a space fan!
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