doctor Joel ROM is with us he's a senior fellow at the Center for American
Progress the founding editor of Climate Progress
is a a PhD a doctorate in physics from MIT
to the website Think Progress .org click on that little green tab at the top
there
says climate and you can get his is a regular blogs along with a a lot of
other good people who work with him
doctor on welcome back to program I thanks for having me
it's great to have you here with us this apiece I
we I P as you know the last couple days I've been ranting about this little
video that we just heard about
on how we may be facing a methane problem
and it's possible that when the planet's hit tipping points
close to being points can cause things to change in rapid
time periods and I noticed a few days ago he wrote this piece on the the
permian you seen thermal maxwell the PETM
art tell us about this well
arm a lot of scientific trying to figure out what
gonna happen today up with the increased and
a carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have what
back through the Paley or climate history
to find similar situation them in
in this case obviously we're humans are causing the emissions but
there are periods of time when there were rapid first
I love either carbon dioxide and methane
and one of those which is considered a pretty good analogy for today
is this this paley we have seen
thermal maximum PETM in which
a carbon dioxide levels arm
in the atmosphere doubled over a very short period of time
and fine-tooth thought at that period of time with 10,000 years arm
which obviously isn't so sure from our perspective but from a geologic
perspective it's pretty fast
right but this new study suggests that it actually happened
over a much shorter period of time like thirteen years
arm and that you know would be
applicable I live from a geologic standpoint the point is that when co2
levels doubled $55 million years ago
the temperature warming nine degrees fahrenheit in the ocean got very
acidified from all the carbon dioxide that that was it then went into the
ocean
we are in the process
I love a increased their doubling co2 emission
level ourselves arm
by probably shortly after mid century and and if we
goal up we could stop that I mean we could we could take action to reduce
carbon pollution
and and avoid that are we're actually headed towards a tripling or quadrupling
co2 level so there's a great great danger
that we are headed similarly towards you know
warming are the order nine degrees fahrenheit I
which would be you know arm disasters
destructive yeah to FC screaming disasters
on I the the analogy I i've been using and Justin people
say water in our oh well you know the the earth is that these five mass
extinctions
and the earth is also had minor extinctions like the p/e TM
I the and um but I
soul what makes you think that you know human activity is going to cause
something like this in a
the metaphor that I've used is that a a in the previous
mass extinctions the cross to the earth guy breached apparently four times by
tectonic activity click on its rearranging themselves are
mountains forming arm once by a giant meteorite to
relatively large meteorite hitting the earth and puncturing the earth and
that releases enough principally carbon dioxide also Florence and sulphides and
and as sulfates and
and other greenhouse gases that that it warms up the oceans
and the world enough that hit that in and of itself is an assault on
life forms on Earth on on me on land but then
also a typically triggers a methane
also methane releases methane clathrate begin to
to to melt basically go to the atmosphere
and then you have a secondary pulse of temperature and what we're doing now
incentive
the clumsy like you know a meteorite strike in years punching a hole
or the Siberian traps are up dinner or some giant volcanic activity
is we're doing it very sophisticated week we have searched the earth for all
these places where the carbon is
we found them in wide release all tiny holes into them and we extract this
carbon
and then consume in a way that throws up into the atmosphere
we think that is a metaphor and can you refund your thoughts on the process and
the parallels between now and
pastimes yeah well I mean I think the point
there's no it is absolutely right i mean you know
a a long time ago it is certainly true
that you know back in the in the a
in the PETM a when all this
carbon got released
before the the Arctic a
was actually arm
the you know 18 degrees
the fahrenheit warmer a then
than that the anyone expected like 74 degrees I mean the Arctic
so you know is the the the point is
that and eventually all over the vegetation and
such you know that a
plant matter got put in the ground and through pressure turn in the fossil
fuels
over appear to have billions of years we have we're now releasing all of that
carbon and
the grave likelihood is that is that if we do we're gonna go back
to a climate that we had long time ago but
you know human made you know
decisions about where to live setup agriculture
based on a climate that was pretty stable for the past
eleven thousand years really not much variation in temperature
maybe a few tenths of a degree fahrenheit
this way and that way so you know
a when you race attempted ties were going to
you were going to you note card large areas that we now grow crops on
into dust bowl and you're going to raise
sea level deadly higher and higher so obviously a great many people
around the world in this country live near the ocean so
you gonna have this situation where
many billion two people are going to basically be living in the wrong place
arm but you know whereas
a temperature changes may have been more gradual the past
or them real their work and you know human
her or you know there were other species they could migrate but now you can't
you can't the species can't migrate because there are human cities and
roads and and hit the way and humans are going to have a devil the time figuring
finding someplace else to live because people
live where they want to move to cell you know where
so that's going to lead to conflict and you know already we're seeing
a conflict in places that are drying out
because the climate change places like the middle east and
bacteria a has see the worst
trout a in in
in history there is simply no drought on record
are worse than the one theory is now experiencing
and he's been attributed in large part to
climate change and it has is what the underlying causes
not the only cause a why the underlying causes of all the
a you know the conflict there the cafeteria
I'm come curious it we have about two minutes left I nature just published I'm
guessing you saw these
millions to pieces I was reading this morning
elbow and one in particular said that good you just do the simple math
um given the rate that were burning carbon arm
and us assume even that levels of it but it's not
you know in some parts the world that by 12 that
to the year twenty 47 is going to be the new normal
and that new normal will be the E this same as the hottest year
in recorded history which was 2005 that that
that that's going to become the new baseline this shifting baselines
are you thoughts on yeah I mean I think people should realize
that that you know as you start to warm the planet
you are basically adding the energy
up global warming to existing weather system
and so we see extreme weather events
periodically that are kinda off the charts
whether it is that flood in Boulder Colorado
or the drought that has been slamming so much in the country or
hurricane sandy arm but eventually
it gets old warm that you know the
coldest I'll year
is harder is then the hottest your anyone's ever experienced in the past
century so
you know that a kinda scary
because it just means you have a completely different climate is
the extreme weather is just its you walk all the extreme weather anymore
that'll just be the normal climate so
yeah people should be very worried about the good news is that
the 20 47 is a long way away and
if we act you know now
the you know what we have some serious chance %uh
minimizing that but otherwise we're just gonna leave
our children and grandchildren a
you know a a utterly different climate like I said
one that the where they'll be nine billion people 2047
and half of them you know our basically gonna be living in the wrong place and I
just don't know where they're gonna
move to how they're gonna get booted its gotta be the great challenges
%uh managing yeah we need to leapfrog nineteenth and twentieth Century Club in
cycling fuel systems and right into the 21st century
those treated to renewal teams few
little up today the doctor Joel ROM Think Progress dot or
seemed finest progress but click that went off a check it out
doctor on thanks for being with us sure my pleasure we talked
will be