A lethal Russian hardware seems to be heading towards the Ukraine border
as per some footage circulating in social media
It is the Buk-M1 air defense system that has the NATO reporting name SA-11 Gadfly.
Viewers may note that this is the same system that a Dutch-led joint investigation team concluded had
shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 by launching a missile from
pro-Russian separatist-controlled territory in Ukraine in July 2014.
This is concerning development for Ukraine as well as the West.
In this video Defense Updates analyzes how Russia is sending a message by deploying a notorious air
defense system near Ukraine's border? Let's get into the details.
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The videos in question were posted to the Russian Telegram messaging site and have been examined by
the Conflict Intelligence Team, or CIT which is an open-source information analysis group.
One clip, taken from the cab of a moving train, shows components associated with the Buk-M1
air defense system at Maslovka station in western Russia's Voronezh Oblast.
According to CIT, the presence of
9S18M1 Kupol acquisition radar indicates that a battalion-strength Buk-M1 system is present there.
This video was recorded on December 6, according to the
date on the train driver’s instrument panel.
While western intelligence has warned of the increasing presence of Russia’s heavy
armor and artillery, the positioning of a system like Buk-M1 can be seen as a major development.
The Buk air defense missile system was developed to replace the previous Kub.
Its industrial designation is 9K37.
Development of this system commenced in 1972 and was meant to be a successor to the Kub-M3.
It entered service with the Soviet Army in 1980.
The Buk has been exported to a number of countries.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, a number of air defense systems were passed
on to successor states. Currently, Russia operates around 350 of these systems.
This air defense system can defeat maneuvering aircraft
and helicopters flying at low or high altitudes.
Buk-M1 is an improved version of the original Buk.
It has better resistance to electronic countermeasures and anti-radiation missiles.
A standard Buk battalion consists of a command vehicle, target acquisition radar (TAR) vehicle,
six transporter erector launcher and radar (TELAR) vehicles and three transporter erector launcher
(TEL) vehicles. A Buk missile battery consists of two TELAR and one TEL vehicle.
The main sensor is 9S18M1 Kupol-M Snow Drift target acquisition radar which has a range
of 160 km or 100 miles and is supplemented by 9S35M1 Fire Dome target tracking radar which
operates in H/I band and has a range of 85 km or around 52 miles.
A Buk TELAR vehicle is fitted with radar, digital computer, missile erector and launcher, friend
or foe identification system. It is operated by a crew of four and carries four missiles.
Radar of the Buk TELAR vehicle searches for targets, tracks them and guides missiles on them.
So, if required each TELAR vehicle can operate autonomously.
The radar detects aircraft flying at altitude over 3 km or 1.8 miles at a range of 80 km or 50 miles.
The detection range is reduced to 40 km or 25 miles when aircraft
fly at 30-100 m above the ground. The Buk fires 9M38 missiles. It is a
single-stage and solid-fuel missile. It resembles US Tartar and Standard naval air defense missiles.
Each missile has a length of 5.5m, a wingspan of 860mm and a weight of 710 kg or 1565 lbs.
It can carry up to 70 kg or 155 lbs
high-explosive fragmentation warheads with radar proximity and contact fusing system.
It can engage targets at a range of 20 km or 1.25 miles at altitudes over 3 km or 1.8 miles
The 9M38 missile has a hit probability of 70-93%.
The reaction time of the system is 22 seconds from track to launch.
It takes 5 minutes to set up after arrival on-site;
5 minutes to depart in 'shoot and scoot' mode.
The system can engage six targets simultaneously, and guide 12 missiles
According to US intelligence, Moscow has deployed more than 100,000
troops in the areas around the Russian-Ukrainian border.
Some reports claim that Russia is preparing a large-scale infusion in Ukraine,
which according to preliminary intelligence reports will occur in early 2022.
Chief of the Defense Staff in the United Kingdom, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, has warned that a
full-scale invasion of Ukraine “would be on a scale not seen in Europe since World War Two.”
Russia already has a considerable airpower advantage over Ukraine.
The Buk-M1 system will provide a protective ‘umbrella’ that will make it almost impossible
for Ukraine to conduct any kind of meaningful air operations in a potential future conflict.
Since the system is highly mobile, it can pop up at different locations at different times
and it can't be taken out by a preemptive strike.
It is evident that the emergence of Buk-M1 is a worrying development for Ukraine and the West.