in 2014 people were talking about accumulating 10 bitcoin because the price was only 200 you know
like it was it wasn't that inconceivable for an average person back then to get 10 bitcoin
and then in 2018 and 2019 everyone was talking about accumulating one bitcoin you know like
because it was i mean you know i mean one bitcoin was basically the equivalent of
accumulating 10 the cycle before so now we find ourselves now we're in 2022 and it seems like
all right welcome back everybody to altcoin daily today we are joined by the great the powerful
benjamin cowan into the cryptoverse on youtube a phd in engineering uh a really smart guy focuses
on the charts ben how are you doing today pretty good thanks for having me it was great to see you
guys in miami as well meet you guys for the first time great to see you irl in miami bitcoin miami
you threw a wonderful party um what are your thoughts on uh you know the community of of
bitcoin miami i was it was incredible i i it was my first conference you know so i wasn't really
sure what to expect but i it was crazy to see just like you know 20 000 people there all descending
on miami and seeing everyone building and everyone kind of coming together it was pretty cool
dude your community showed up in droves the ben cowan into the cryptoverse community huge
way way more passion huge than i ever imagined thank you anyways let's jump right into it i
want to talk to you about bitcoin we'll record a separate video on some of your favorite altcoins
um i guess just to start ben it is now april um getting into the summer months of 2022 bitcoin
still between 40 and 50 000 i believe what are your general thoughts on bitcoin today
yeah so you know we're sort of seeing again if you think about the last year a whole lot of nothing
with respect to bitcoin and and as you guys know i like to follow the logarithmic progression charts
for for bitcoin just kind of get an idea of where it is and i think the the best argument right now
for kind of where we are is we're like in no man's land you know like you there's there's definitely
the bullish case there's also the bearish case we're sitting at a at a pretty important level
right now on a lot of different charts where it shows that if we were to experience you know
something like a march 2020 capitulation or you know like a december 2018 capitulation that would
take you down to essentially what would be the best time ever to buy bitcoin but as we also know
there's no guarantee that we go there i mean you can you just look at the chart and go back to 2021
mid you know the summer is 2021 and we also sat in no man's land and then we ultimately went back up
sort of at the top of the regression man so you know i look at these charts like the regression
charts and just sort of figure out what is you know what are realistic possibilities
and and according to this chart you know it says the upper bound on bitcoin right now
is around 134 000 dollars that'd be like best case scenario in the short term absolute mania phase
could get us to 133k um and then to the downside if we were to go back to say the you know this
underevaluation region that's sitting somewhere between 20 and 25 000 but again one of the
interesting things to consider with these charts is that monotonically increasing functions right
so the longer we just chill you know these these lines are just slowly catching up to where we are
um so again the the way i think about where the market is right now is i i look at charts like
this and this is for the entire asset class but obviously it really does capture where bitcoin is
i say we're just tracking we're basically tracking the fair value of the asset class okay so you know
you can think about what does the fair value mean is it you could argue that it's just whatever you
know whatever the the cryptocurrencies are trading at but if you if you think about the asset class
going through like boom and bust cycles i think that you know this chart pretty clearly shows that
right now we're just tracking what the fair value of the asset class is and and it's pretty humdrum
time right like the crypto markets are are are somewhat boring right now compared to compared
to what they were last year and in and in 20 20 20 but that's also not necessarily a bad thing
for for long-term investors like us who just want to you know slowly acquire a position over time
and then just wait for the asset class to explode again now benjamin i see in past you know all the
history of this chart the bitcoin price has never rowed the fair value line it's either bounced off
it at support or been rejected rejected off it as resistance right now we're right on the line
exactly we're right on the line and actually there's a there's another chart that also
shows the exact same thing for just bitcoin and and this is why i think right now is
i think the next let's say three months are really gonna really help define where bitcoin is going
um you know for the rest of the year and and the reason i say that is because there's
three there's four times in history where we've been at this level four times and
you can see you know after coming back down so once here and we fell below it right we fell
below the fair value by the way the fair value of bitcoin according to this chart is is around 36k
okay so that's where the fair value is um the fair value and and the end of 2020 four will be 100k we
go through boom and bust cycles well you'll notice there's four times we've been at this level right
2011 we fell below 2013 mid 2013 we held right you can kind of see we came down we came down to
this level we ultimately held the fair value band and then we went on to you know to another another
peak later on and then in 2014 and 2018 we fell below it so if you look at if you look at where
we are right it's a very pivotal a pivotal moment in the asset class i think we're either going to
bounce off of it in the next few months or we're going to get some type of capitulation below
and you know i would prefer to see us bounce off of it as you guys know i'd like to see the cycle
ultimately extend well out into you know into next year sometime um but i i just want to
show kind of where we are today and and how it compares to where we've been in the past
and we know i was watching your channel back in 2018 we saw this this you know this basically
the floor fall out on bitcoin at the at the end of 2018 and so you know if something like that
were to happen that basically sets up you know an accumulation of a lifetime phase if you will right
if something like that were to happen but right now we're sort of just writing that fair value
logarithmic regression band and as i said the fair values is currently just north of 36 000.
so you've been saying for a long time talking about lengthening cycles very early on so i know
you've been thinking for a while that perhaps we'd see another peak in 2023 perhaps the cycle top
is that what you're still thinking and at this point in time i guess how bullish are you on
bitcoin for the next couple years i know you're a bitcoin holder what's your thesis
yeah well so yeah the the lengthening cycle thesis basically just comes from you know looking at at
market cycle roi right and and noting that every every major peak occurred later on done than the
previous one so you know if we're going to see it i don't think it's going to happen in 2022 i
think it would be more likely to happen in 2023 i think after just like a mania phase that we had in
late 2020 you need you need a cool down period right you need some type of a cool down period
and and really the question is is it going to look something like this where the risk on on bitcoin
kind of comes to this sort of intermediate phase where we were in 2013 right where it's it's
undervalued with or it's maybe i shouldn't say undervalued it's it's at a relatively low risk
level compared to where we were a year ago and and then we just sort of need to work out work work it
out for a while so basically the idea is we just need time to work out yeah i mean i i definitely
remain macro bullish on bitcoin i i would still think that there's a really good chance we'll see
some type of of a peak out in 2023 i think 2022 is is still going to be somewhat of a choppy year um
you know just with everything kind of going on in the world from like a macro economic conditions
it's not really the best environment for bitcoin to rally right now if we're being kind of honest
with ourselves um but so i i do lean that 2023 is probably going to be a much better year than 2022.
with that said if if we have a capitulation okay so like if if the bear thesis plays out which by
the way there is some evidence to support it it's not i mean we've been through the market plenty
of times to know that you know it can always go a little bit lower before it goes back up
um so if we were to get a capitulation though and and we saw something similar play out like 2018
i think that you're basically you're kicking the can down the road an extra year and that
would actually at that point it would it would actually be a new cycle i think like so if bitcoin
if bitcoin does capitulate like the bears are calling for you know back to say twenty thousand
dollars or you know something like that um then then at that point it's i i would have to i would
have to say that is a completely new cycle and and then we need to consider the implications of that
so let's let's hear about those two scenarios let's say maybe just obviously it's just
speculation do be a speculation benjamin but if we capitulate and form a new cycle 2024 what do you
think the potential p could be and if we don't do that and there's a potential peak in 2023
what do you think i think the the price target is kind of the same um maybe a little bit higher
if if we get a capitulation so the reason i say that is because if we don't get a capitulation
and and we just sort of kind of ride the fair value line for a few more months and and then
ultimately go up i think the roi for the cycle will probably be capped somewhere between like
uh you know a 40x to a 50x so as measured from market cycle bottom in you know at 3 100 you're
talking somewhere between like 120k you know 150k maybe we could go up to 200k depending on how
how long it extends uh so i would say that if it happens in 2023 you know probably 100 to 200k um
and if we capitulate then at that point we would have to consider a new cycle bottom so like let's
imagine let's walk through that scenario so let's say the bears are right and and bitcoin
capitulates you know we get one more 50 correction we already had one right so if we get another
one and and bitcoin goes back down you know to see like 70 down 80 down from the all-time high
and it's so let's say 15 15 to 20 000 if that plays out then we have to look at diminishing
returns and say okay you know cycle three was a 100x cycle four was say you know like uh um like
like a 20x if if that plays out and so then the next cycle after that i i think we would have to
assume you know we're we're going to continue to have diminishing returns but let's say we get like
a 10x or something from the bottom i mean if the bottom is 20k a 10x will get you to 200k right if
the bottom is say 25k you know a 10x would get you to 250. so i think really it ultimately depends on
on if we capitulate right if if we do and and the next peak doesn't come until say 2024 slash 2025
the night we probably could go a bit higher than we could if the the price if the peak was already
or say like in 2023 and the reason i say that is is because basically the the underlying thesis
that you know i think both of us operate with bitcoin is that it trends up with time right so by
you know by 2023 the the fair value of the asset class is is only or say a bitcoin will only be 71k
so if we if we see some type of a peak maybe a 2x above that that's that's getting pretty heated but
by say 2025 the fair value will be 130k so you know a 2x above that is is going to get you well
over over you know 200 000 so i think if it's 2023 it won't be quite as high if we get a capitulation
it gives us more pain in the short term which would be hard for a lot of people to navigate
but it simultaneously sets up basically the best buying opportunities on bitcoin you would ever get
are you like me benjamin and like a lot of people who've been in bitcoin for a while
where you know you talked about you know all we need is time and then eventually it
just tends to trend higher if you believe in bitcoin the you know if you believe that the
world is going to turn towards the underbaseable permissionless censorship resistant hard money
you know if that's the case you know there's some people not not going to sell a portion of
their bitcoin to like 20 30 to like 10 years down the road if that's the case
how much bitcoin do you think the average person could accumulate today 0.2.5 to be considered
wealthy in bitcoin terms in the future it's interesting because that question like i feel
like the answer to that question kind of changes every cycle you know it was like in in 2014 people
were talking about accumulating 10 bitcoin because the price was only 200 you know like it was it
wasn't that inconceivable for an average person back then to get 10 bitcoin and then in 2018
and 2019 everyone was talking about accumulating one bitcoin you know like because it was
i mean you know i mean one bitcoin was basically the equivalent of accumulating 10 the cycle before
so now we find ourselves now we're in 2022 and it seems like you know like 0.1 bitcoin is is sort of
like the new threshold that people are are trying to build up to because point one bitcoin is a lot
of money i mean you're talking about over four thousand dollars so you know i think the goals for
for people to to shoot for i think they changed depending on on when they got in and how early
they were so longer term people have been here longer you know obviously they had their their
their their goals that they were trying to reach in a prior cycle now that we're in this cycle you
know i i think if if you can get i'm not i mean i don't i think it's somewhat untenable for a lot
of people to get one full bitcoin because that's a lot of money um but you know if you can work your
way up to a few tenths of a bitcoin i think that's going to go a long way mainly because if you think
about if you fast forward in your mind down the road a few years if if sort of the the fearful
price that we're all worried about is say hundred thousand dollars you know i mean half a bitcoin
is 100k and 100k is a lot of money so i i think the answer to that question obviously changes
every cycle you know right now it's probably a few cents of a bitcoin if you can if you can get
there and and next cycle whenever that is right if it's a linkedin cycle and then you know it's
it's further out or if we if we capitulate sooner and then we have another cycle after that then
you you know it getting to 0.1 bitcoin would probably be a feat that that most people would
not be able to accomplish i mean especially if bitcoin's trading for like 200 000 you know to
save up 20 grand um for a new investor to save up 20 grand in and putting it in an asset that might
be new to them would be very very hard to do so the answer obviously changes every cycle but yeah
i think a few tenths of a bitcoin is probably what a lot of people are shooting for right now
benjamin if you want to take us off screen share points away on one tenth of bitcoin that's
obviously every cycle that does get much much bigger i would love to know for the audience down
below you know if bitcoiners are right what could one tenth of a bitcoin be in a decade from now but
aaron i'll leave it to you yeah benjamin thank you so much for coming on our youtube channel today
links to benjamin's twitter and youtube channel down in the description i subscribe to him
i encourage our audience to subscribe to him i'm sure many people do already
benjamin final thoughts for the altcoin daily audience if you are watching my channel normally
and you're over here watching these guys make sure you subscribe to them as well
because they actually cover stuff that a lot of people are actually more interested in
than some of the boring stuff that i cover on my channel even even my wife
met them in miami and she's more interested in their channel than my channel so so subscribe to
them too they provide a lot of great content and they they actually keep you up to date on what's
actually going on in the market not not just diving into the chart so i think we'll leave
it at that your wife was awesome thanks for the kind words benjamin see you guys tomorrow