i'm assuming that because you watch me
on youtube you also watch other people
in the finance industry on youtube and
everybody's saying that we're gonna fall
into another recession so in this video
i'm gonna talk about my opinions about
recessions as well as how you can
implement market sentiment into where
you think the price is going to go
[Music]
welcome back to the channel everybody my
name's artie and this is the moving
average a show where we discuss
everything day trading to keep you
profitable on a consistent basis so a
lot of you guys have been on different
forums and different communities and you
hear the term the market sentiment
whether people think the price is
bullish or bearish but you don't really
understand how you can actually use that
where to actually find what the market
sentiment is and how a negative bearish
market sentiment can cause a cascading
effect in the market so just to get the
day trading stuff out of the way let's
jump on the computer okay so what you
can do is go to google.com my number one
source of all knowledge on the internet
and type in market sentiment outlook my
fx book first link right here is going
to be forex sentiment on my fx book uh
there's gonna be a link to it in the
description of this video right here you
can see the market sentiment on every
single forex pair so on euro usd you can
see that there are more bullish people
than there are bearish people that's the
market sentiment the people's opinion on
whether the price is going to go up or
down whether they're bullish or bearish
on it also for example
usdjpy a lot of people are very bearish
on usd jpy you can look up every single
currency pair that you're trading you
can also go to this website dailyfx and
it will show you the outlooks on gold
silver oil the u.s 500 german 40 and
it'll give you a general idea as a
confluence to what you're already
thinking so if you're already bullish on
us 30 and you're going in for a buy
position that day you can just reference
this and see oh wait more people are
bearish on us 30 right now so maybe i
should contemplate my decision or yeah
70 are bullish just like me so i'm gonna
get into my position what i want you to
understand is that there's resources for
you to understand what the market is
thinking i will link a bunch of them
down below all of them are useful and if
you guys are still unclear on what
market sentiment is market sentiment
refers to the overall attitude and
investors towards a particular security
or financial market it is the feeling or
tone of a market or its crowd psychology
as revealed through the activity and
price movement of the securities traded
in that market in broad terms rising
price indicates bullish market sentiment
while falling price indicates bearish
market sentiment investopedia a wealth
of knowledge
i gotta find some paper
you guys have probably seen this before
this is what we call a vicious cycle
when one thing happens it causes the
other thing to happen which causes the
other thing to happen and it just keeps
going in this circle so i want to
explain my opinions and thoughts on
market sentiment and what's going on
with the markets and how they keep
dropping because right now
the vicious cycle is happening if you
guys have seen the price of crypto
currencies and how they keep dropping
and how the u.s stock market keeps
dropping and how facebook tanked and all
of these things just keep tanking and i
want to explain what's going on with the
market because the market sentiment is
driving that downwards movement when
anybody has extra money or they want to
start investing what they're going to
start doing is investing into stocks
like amazon and tesla and facebook or
just an overall etf like the vanguard
fund where you know you're pretty much
gonna get about eight to nine percent
annually people invest in those things
thinking that the price is going to go
up but then as the market starts coming
down people see their portfolios
decreasing in value causing them to pull
money out it's basically a sell so the
more sell orders and the more fear that
happens the further the price starts
cascading down now some of you have the
buy the dip mentality but a lot of
people just stay afraid until the market
starts swinging back up and then they
get in again what these investors are
doing is pulling their money out of
these high risk investments like bitcoin
ethereum facebook whatever because
they're starting to lose money and what
they're doing is they're pulling their
money out of these things and putting
them into lower risk higher yield bonds
treasury bonds to be exact while the
market is going up not many people are
putting their money into treasury bonds
because they yield a lower percentage
than these higher risk assets but as
these higher risk assets start falling
people start putting their money into
here because even though it's a lower
yield it's still making more money than
these things that are falling now as
that happens the more people that get
into these treasury bonds the lower the
yields get because there's more people
in it to the point where this becomes
inefficient and people aren't making as
much money and so what people do is they
move their money back into these higher
risk things
causing this cycle to continue to
fluctuate and happen that process takes
a really long time and that's what
usually happens during the recession
everything starts dropping people stop
spending money and putting their money
into safer things like treasury bonds
until that's no longer efficient for
them but by that time we've already hit
the bottom of the market and it's
starting to come up and people are
seeing that in these higher risk things
so they start throwing their money into
this causing the market to push up more
while that's all happening interest
rates also play a role in this because
if banks are lending out money at
extremely low interest rates people will
borrow money at those low interest rates
and invest in something that has a
higher return so if you borrow money at
three percent and the thing that you
borrowed money for is making 11
you got yourself a money factory but
with the fed planning to raise rates
soon people are going to be borrowing
less money and another factor of this
whole recession bearish you know crazy
market is going to be the gas prices
because as gas prices increase
people are going to start spending less
money in the economy buying things
because they need to have their money
for gasoline as well as utility costs
all of those infrastructure costs of
your personal life start going up so you
have to stop spending so much money here
the less spending that happens in the
global economy also causes that market
to go down so you can see this cascading
effect is caused not only by the fear
but of the stock prices going down of
the oil prices going up of utility costs
going up of inflation and costs of bread
and milk and cheese going up all of that
plays into effect until it gets to a
certain point that it just stops which
usually takes like three to four months
and then the market starts to swing up
because people have found that new
balance that new support level and then
they start warming back up to spending
gas prices start going down they can
spend more money on shoes and injecting
money into the economy and that's why it
continues to go up that's why the
stimulus from the us government worked
so well because people were spending
less but because they got free money
they kept spending more keeping the
economy growing so what's the light at
the end of the tunnel well
market's been dropping should you invest
right now in high risk things probably
not will this last forever definitely no
but what you'll start seeing is market
sentiment shifting at that point the
market starts improving and the economy
goes on its bull run which usually lasts
about 10 years so after the market
sentiment returns to positive
we're good to go understanding market
sentiment is extremely important but it
is not the only aspect of day trading
properly and profitably if you want the
other half of this equation you need to
understand technical analysis and how
the markets move and market structure
you can learn that information by
watching this video right here and if
you got some value out of this video and
you like the way that i teach make sure
you're dropping a like for the algorithm
and my self-esteem
and we will see you in the next video