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I’m sure many of you have wondered why there are countries with such strange shapes?
For example, have you noticed how weird the outline of CROATIA is?
Why does it have that kind of fang coming down?
It may sound silly, but that fang makes Bosnia and Herzegovina land-locked.
So what about Russia?
Why do they have this kind of island between Lithuania and Poland?
I mean, who ever decided that this region, which, by the way, is called KALININGRAD,
is Russia?
But, the two that really take the prize, without a doubt, the countries with the strangest
shapes are ARMENIA and AZERBAIJAN.
If you look closely, you will see that Azerbaijan has a strip of land on the east side of Armenia.
But within Azerbaijan itself there is another region that is, in fact, controlled by Armenia.
As you can imagine, all of this is more than lines on a map.
We are talking about one of the most complex conflicts in world politics.
A conflict that may be about to be resolved.
This video has been made possible by the Munich Security Conference, but not only because
they collaborated with us.
It's also that they're an important part of this whole story.
At the end of the video you will have a much better understanding about how these borders
get drawn.
Let's go with our story!
(INTRO)
Armenia and Azerbaijan are two of those countries that you will only hear mentioned in the Eurovision
song competition and... here, on VISUALPOLITIK.
These two countries are neighbours and have a lot in common.
Both were Soviet republics.
Both countries are extremely corrupt.
Azerbaijan is the private confine of the Aliyev family, and Armenia has been run for decades
by an elite group of oligarchs.
As if that were not enough, in both countries they speak unpronounceable languages.
To give you an idea, Armenians have their own unique type of calligraphy, distinct from
other languages in the world.
But with so many similarities between the two countries, many will think, Well, I'm
sure they'll get along!
Really?
Well, no, nothing like that.
Armenia and Azerbaijan hate each other.
But really hate each other.
The conflict between these two countries has cost thousands of lives over the past three
decades and caused millions of people to be displaced.
Come on, this is nothing in comparison to the Israelis and the Palestinians.
And you'll say...
Yeah, right Simon!
Why have we never heard of this conflict?
Well, basically, because there are no left or right-wings here.
Instead, Russia has always been supporting the Armenians and Turkey, the Azerbaijanis.
The United States has no interest in this story.
And since there are no good guys here, the victims don’t get much attention.
At this point, many of you will be wondering why it is they hate each other so much.
Is it a matter of ideologies?
Is it because of natural resources?
Well, neither of those.
It is true that Armenians are Christians and Azerbaijanis, also called AZERI, are Muslims.
But religion is not the reason.
The subject of discord is this piece of land you see here.
(MAP NAGORNO KARABAKH)
This region here is called NAGORNO-KARABAKH, and it has about 140,000 inhabitants of which
90% speak Armenian.
Armenia says that it belongs to them.
But officially, it belongs to Azerbaijan.
So what's in that region?
Does it have oil?
No.
Is it of any strategic importance?
Minimal!
So why are we telling you this story here, on VisualPolitik?
Well for three reasons: the first is because this conflict may be resolved very soon.
The second is because we have had the privilege of watching one of the episodes of this story
play out live.
And yes, I say that because this has happened before my very own eyes.
As you know, VisualPolitik is one of the media outlets that was invited to go to the Munich
Security Conference.
And right at the hotel where this conference was held was one of those peace talks.
I mean, a lot of the things I'm going to tell you, our team have seen with their own eyes.
You've got to understand that it’s not every day you see history happening live.
So I had my reasons for making this video but there's a third reason as well!
This is one of those stories that proves how absurd politics can very often be.
Because yes, here we’re talking about two countries killing themselves for a piece of
land that is worth absolutely NOTHING.
It has no oil, no strategic value...
Nothing.
I think looking at this issue might help many of us to realize how absurd many debates are
in which sides just become rigid in defending a particular stance.
But listen.
What is going on between Armenia in Azerbaijan?
Why do they hate each other so much?
Does the conflict have a solution?
Today we're going to answer these questions but first, let's look at some history.
(TITLE: THE PEACE NO ONE WANTED)
The really big question is... who was in Nagorno-Karabakh first?
The Armenians or the Azerbaijanis?
And you can probably guess the answer: it depends who you ask.
What we do know is that throughout the 1920s, the majority of the population was Armenian.
This is when Stalin arrived and conquered the entire region and then divided it into
three socialist republics: Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
And what did Stalin's division do?
Well, just what he’d wished.
So in 1923, Stalin said "This Nagorno-Karabakh thing is going to be part of Azerbaijan, Why?
Because I say so, I am Stalin and I’m here, and the rest of the world can just shut up."
The Soviet Union never really looked when it came to drawing borders.
And no ethnic group or nationalist movement dared to question Moscow's decisions.
So, until 1987, no-one dared to say they wanted to be part of Armenia, and what happened in
1987?
Well, the Soviet Union was starting to disintegrate.
And all of a sudden, a whole lot of Armenians organized a referendum on self-determination
to get out of Azerbaijan and, if possible, to be part of Armenia.
As you can imagine, this sparked a famous war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which
lasted until 1994.
Six years of war that took the lives of more than 30,000 and left more than a million people
displaced.
So who won the war?
Well, in practice, we can say that Armenia did.
Officially, Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan.
But the reality is that the region is ruled by the Republic of ARTSAKH, where the language,
the currency and even the banks are the same as in Armenia.
As if this were not enough, all the borders of this area are controlled by the Armenian
army.
Come on, although almost no country recognizes Artsakh as an Armenian region, in practice
it is one.
And you're probably thinking, but what about the Azerbaijanis who live there?
Well, the truth is, almost everyone had to leave after the war.
If we count up those who live in this region and those who lived in Armenia, we’re talking
about a total of 800,000 Azerbaijanis.
And it was a similar story with the Armenians who lived in Azerbaijan.
Conclusion: to this day, both peoples hate each other.
And I’m not exaggerating.
Here’s an example.
In 2005, the then Mayor of Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, had an official meeting with
a German delegation.
Watch out for this gem of diplomacy, you can’t miss it.
(AUDIO: Our goal is the complete elimination of Armenians.
You, Nazis, already eliminated the Jews in the 1930s and 40s, right?
You should be able to understand us.
–Hajibala Abutalybov, Mayor of Baku in 2005)
Okay, some of you will be thinking...
"Ok, but that guy was just a mayor..."
Well, take a look at the current president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev.
(AUDIO: ...Our main enemies are Armenians of the world and the hypocritical and corrupt
politicians under their control.
–Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan president)
If you're a regular VisualPolitik follower, Aliyev's name is familiar.
You know we're talking about a corrupt dictator with few rivals.
And as you know, corrupt dictators love to point out an enemy: The Yanks, the Jews, or,
in this case, the Armenians.
And that helps to explain why every time someone has sat down to negotiate a peace agreement,
they have failed.
Let's be honest, neither side wants peace!
And you're probably thinking surely there must be some possible agreement?
Of course!
In 2009, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe sat Aliyev and the then
President of Armenia down at the same table.
And where did they do it?
In Madrid.
That's where they set out a series of principles.
Basically, the inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh, or if you prefer, the REPUBLIC OF ARTSAKH
could decide whether they wanted their land to be part of Armenia or Azerbaijan.
The Armenian army would have to withdraw from the surrounding areas and Azerbaijan would
guarantee a corridor between this region and Armenia.
Makes sense, doesn't it?
Well, yes, on paper it does make real sense.
But unfortunately, neither side was willing to accept it.
At the end of the day, having an arch rival has been a great blessing to the oligarchs
of both countries.
However, now things could be set to change.
Why?
Well, we're going to look into that right now.
(HEADLINE: THE ARMENIAN OUTSIDER)
Armenia is one of the few countries in the world that has more citizens outside of its
borders than inside.
As it stands today, some three million people live within Armenia.
But the Armenian diaspora totals more than 10 million people.
So why are so many people leaving Armenia?
Well, at home they have more than 20% unemployment, they have the same per capita income as Namibia
and corruption is around every corner.
And once again, the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is the perfect scapegoat for all its problems.
What’s more, almost all the political elite come from this country.
In fact, the former Armenian Prime Minister was born in the Republic of Artsakh, the former
Prime Minister of Armenia was also born in the Republic of Artsakh and the same goes
for lots of senior officials.
And believe me, strange as it may seem, the blissful Republic of Artsach is the number
one priority of all the governments this country has had.
Armenia might have all the corruption you can imagine, but its presidents did such useful
things as trying to convince the government of TUVALU to recognize Artsach as an independent
republic.
Yes, that’s right, TUVALU, one of those tiny, forgotten countries in the Pacific.
And the list goes on.
Today there are six states in the United States that recognize the Republic of Artsakh.
And you'll say, individual states within the United States?
What business does California have in recognizing sovereign states?
Well, nothing.
But that's how lots of Armenian politicians have been justifying their pay check for years...
Until we get to 2018.
(AUDIO: Armenian protesters brought down a prime minister - Washington Post)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/04/30/armenian-protesters-brought-down-a-prime-minister-heres-why-theyre-in-the-streets/
Exactly!
We covered this here on VisualPolitik, in 2018 the Armenians had had enough after so
many years of corruption, abuse of power and the poverty that is a consequence of such
a situation and drove their Prime Minister out.
The new Armenian government is led by the man you see on screen, Nikol Pashinyan.
In his first two years of rule he has carried out several economic reforms and appears to
be fighting corruption seriously.
And you're going to say, so what does this man think of the conflict?
Well... this probably won’t surprise you...
(AUDIO: Pashinyan calls for unification between Armenia and Karabakh - Eurasianet)
https://eurasianet.org/pashinyan-calls-for-unification-between-armenia-and-karabakh
And I know what you're probably thinking: that’s hardly original these days, right?
Well, yes, and no at the same time.
First, Pashinyan is the first Prime Minister in years not to be born in that region.
Second, he is an absolute outsider when it comes to the Armenian elites.
In other words, he doesn’t need to fuel the fear of Azerbaijan to gain popularity.
And that's why it's an opportune moment to negotiate a peace agreement.
The question is... how exactly are peace agreements negotiated?
Let’s take a look.
(TITLE: THE MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE)
Imagine for a moment that you have been hired as advisers to the Armenian government and
you want to negotiate with Azerbaijan, where would you start?
Maybe you'd try to get the number to Baku's presidential palace.
Let’s say you call "hey, is Aliyev here?
Look, I’m calling from the Government of Armenia about Nagorno..."
Chances are they'll hang up the phone.
That's what political conferences are for.
That's where political leaders from all over the world
come together, and they can talk one-to-one, face-to-face.
Well, the Munich Security Conference is one of the largest.
(“Part of our mission is to offer a relatively easy platform for people who normally find
it very hard to visit each other’s country because that is often seen as a difficult
step.
You lose face by going to visit your adversary so they come to Munich and they meet here.”
Wolfgang Ischinger)
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IP3rD1iz8d0&t=680s 1.53)
The gentleman you just saw is Wolfgang Ischinger, the director of the Munich Security Conference.
Basically, that gentleman and his team have a list of the names and numbers of all the
politicians who are going to attend the conference.
So, in this case, we could talk to him and say "Look, Wolfgang, we want to contact those
guys from Azerbaijan, with whom you already know we have ongoing issues..." or, even more
likely: he would have approached us himself, "Guys, why don't you get together?"
(AUDIO: “The president of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia... they have
a conflict called Nagorno-Karabakh which has been going on for practically 30 years now
where people are being killed all the time.
Not in huge numbers but people die.
So yesterday we organized a session for these two and both of them told me: this is actually
the first time we show up together anywhere” Wolfgang Ischinger
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IP3rD1iz8d0&t=680s Min 2.19)
You heard what the man said.
And we can tell you this because one of our team was there and saw it with his own eyes.
Pashynian and Aliyev were arguing together on the same stage.
And then you'll say come on, Simon!
Are you telling me that two leaders who hate each other went to some German conference
hand in hand and then sang “Kumbaya” for a photo opportunity and now everything is
sorted?
Not really.
In fact, throughout the debate they devoted themselves to discussing historical data to
justify why Nagorno-Karabakh should belong to one side or the other.
It wasn't a friendly chat.
But the truth is that in this type of conference, the least important things are the on-stage
debates.
The real action is what happens in the cafes, and in the hotels.
Sometimes even in the hotel rooms!
For that reason, at the Munich Security Conference, the rooms are prepared so that the various
delegations can sit down and negotiate.
The next time you hear about two countries that have signed an agreement, think that
most likely, that agreement was previously discussed on the sofa of a hotel suite.
And, as far as the conference was concerned, both the Azerbaijani and Armenian delegations
had more than one chance to have coffee together and talk about their situation.
Does this mean they've already signed a peace agreement?
Not really.
But it means it looks like an agreement could be reached.
But in this case I can't show you any data yet.
Just our personal hunch.
And yes, I know, here at VisualPolitik we like to base everything we say on supporting
facts and statistics, not just on a few rumours we've heard.
But, in this case, there's still not much hard evidence.
In the meantime, I leave you with this question: Do you think that Armenia and Azerbaijan will
end up reaching a peace agreement?
What would be the consequences of this for these two countries?
You can leave me your answer in the comments.
Remember to visit the YOURMSC channel where you can see all the interviews VisualPolitik
conducted during the Munich Security Conference.
You won't see me, in my place is Fonseca, who is one of the presenters of the Spanish
Channel.
So I really hope you enjoyed this video, please hit like if you did, and don’t forget to
subscribe for brand new videos.
Don’t forget to check out our friends at the Reconsider Media Podcast - they provided
the vocals in this episode that were not mine.
Also, this channel is possible because of Patreon, and our patrons on that platform.
Please consider joining them and supporting our mission of providing independent political
coverage.
And as always, I’ll see you in the next video.