OK, first let's wind things back and
talk about Omar al-Bashir. He took power
in a military coup in 1989 and ruled
Sudan for the next 30 years. But two
years ago people finally turned on him.
Women, young people, Sudanese from across
the country had had enough.
And when it became clear that
al-Bashir's days were numbered the army,
which had propped him up for so long,
turned on him, too.
And he was out.
But it wasn't quite the people's victory
that all those protesters had wanted
because the army seized power and
replaced al-Bashir with something called
the Transitional Military Council, the
TMC.
So, as far as the protesters were
concerned, the revolution wasn't over.
But there was nothing peaceful about what
happened next.
More than a hundred people were killed
in what became known as the Khartoum
massacre.
But still the protesters kept up the pressure and
it worked. Eventually the military agreed
to share power.
So the military leaders, the TMC, made a
deal with the group that basically
represented the protesters. That's the
FFC, the Forces of Freedom and Change.
They agreed to share power for 39 months
in a new transitional government and
then hold elections. Both sides had seats
on a joint committee called the
Sovereign Council that was led by
General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Remember,
he's the guy who just led the coup. There
was also a civilian cabinet led by Prime
Minister Abdulla Hamdok.
Now, for a while it looked like Sudan was
on track and transitioning towards
democracy, but that transition was
completely derailed by what happened in
late October, when General al-Burhan
decided to seize power.
He dissolved the Sovereign Council,
pushed out the prime minister and
declared a state of emergency.
OK, but why now?
Well, that whole power-sharing
arrangement was on pretty shaky ground
from the start.
So, that's the context: a major rivalry between the
two sides that was just getting worse
and worse. But there was something else
going on, too. A looming deadline for
General al-Burhan to step down as
chairman of the Sovereign Council.
Some people reckon that also helps to
explain the timing of this coup.
And stepping down would have
put the civilian side in a stronger
position to make some big moves, like
handing over the former president, Omar
al-Bashir, to the International Criminal
Court. He's facing charges linked to the
conflict in Darfur. A conflict that some
of those military leaders, like al-Burhan,
were involved in, too.
Or another big move: pushing ahead with a
proper investigation into the military's
role in the Khartoum massacre.
The military has full control
now. So, what does that mean for Sudan?
Well, for the economy it's definitely bad.
Sudan was on its way to getting $50 billion
in debt relief. And there
were promises of even more international
aid.
But most of that was tied to Sudan's
democratic transition, and now that
that's in doubt, so is the money.
Now, General al-Burhan actually says he's
still committed to that transition. He
said the whole reason he took control
was to "correct the path of the
revolution", as he put it, and that the
military was forced to act because of
all the political infighting.
He says he's going to set up a
technocratic government and hold
elections in 2023. But people just aren't
buying it.
And so, for
many in Sudan, it's feeling like 2019 all
over again.
We can't predict what might happen next
in Sudan. Several people have already
been killed in the protests that followed
the latest coup, and there's definitely a
lot of fear.
But there's also some hope, the idea that
people power has changed things before
and it might again.