Just six years after Scotland voted no to independence, polls have suggested that if
a second referendum were held, it could have very different results. Brexit has not been
popular in Scotland and the pandemic, of course, has tossed in another curveball.
Dr. Simon Tormey is Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences and Law at the University of Bristol.
He's the author of several books and articles and is an expert in political theory,
European politics and continental thought. Dr. Tormey, thank you so much for joining us.
You're welcome.
There was a referendum on Scottish independence from the UK in 2014,
when even the younger voters voted to stay, why is this movement persisting?
It's persisting because the idea of a Scottish nation is a very persistent one in as far as
Scottish citizens are concerned. And I think really what's happened in the last 20 years is,
of course, that we've seen the opening of the Scottish assembly with a degree of devolution.
And that has fueled the sense in which people who believe that Scotland's nationhood should merit a
separate independent status and sovereignty is one that has been very persistent. I think the other
major factor is, of course, Brexit itself. The prospect of Scotland exiting the European Union,
alongside England, Wales, Northern Ireland has been one which has really fueled the idea that
Scotland's destiny is with continental Europe. And that's a very old idea in Scottish politics as
well, it dates back to what they called the ‘Auld Alliance’ between Scotland and France and the old
battles that were fought in the 18th century between Scotland and England. So there, there
are lots of kind of historical resonances here. But I think the main one is really,
that having its own assembly, its own parliament, Brexit, these are all kind of,
you know, feeding the fire that basically underpins the idea of Scottish nationalism.
Scotland voted 62% to remain in the EU, which is potential justification for a second referendum.
But which of the voters do you think have been swayed?
Well, it's an interesting one, isn't it? I mean, I think that the problem with kind of Scottish
nationalism is a little bit of a kind of, it's a heart versus head issue. I think a lot of Scottish
people are really torn by this one that, the heart tells them that, of course, the idea of
an independent Scotland is a great one, there is a strong sense of nationhood, it's expressed in the
sports, for example, separate Scottish soccer team and rugby teams and so on. But at the same time,
England and Wales is a powerful economic driver of progress and development. And the great fear for
those kind of, the thinking side of the equation, is that if you detach yourself from England,
and from the City of London, powerful financial institutions and so on, that you're going to be
voting to make yourself worse off. And I think this is really when it comes to voting, it's that
heart versus head issue. And of course, now we've got the additional complexity of Brexit, that
changes the equation for some people, of course, and makes them more added to Europeans. But on the
other hand, it also means the danger of becoming unended and uprooted from the most important
trading association of all, which is with England and Wales then becomes more problematic. So it's
a tough set of issues and we should say as well that there are Scottish pro-independence voters
who are anti-EU, so actually the cleavages as we call them in political science, they're a
little bit more complex. It's not that everyone who wants independence is pro-Brexit. There's
actually independence people who really want if you like, true independence, both from the rest
of the UK and from the EU. So that's a minority position, but it's an influential one as well.
Well, there are other factors that are stoking the desire to separate from Britain,
there seems to be also a growing gap between Scottish and UK politics.
Yeah, and this is stoked very much on purpose by Nicola Sturgeon, who's the leader of the Scottish
National Party, which is the dominant party in the Scottish assembly, and she's really wanted to
demonstrate a different style of leadership and also different substance of leadership
from Boris Johnson, who's of course, the UK Prime Minister. So she's very conscious that generally
the Scottish electorate is a little bit more left wing, a little bit more social democratic than the
English constituency. And she's fed that. She's trying to feed the idea the Scottish Government is
a more caring government. It's been a little bit tougher on terms of COVID measures and lockdowns
and so on, really trying to sort of drive a wedge in people's imagination between the UK policy and
the Scottish policy and that's been a quite a determined and quite self-conscious policy.
Well, Nicola Sturgeon says she has a cast iron mandate for another referendum, but bad timing
could have consequences and UK ministers have already rejected the deal. So how likely is it?
Well, that's a really good question. Because when you hear that it's a really good question
it means you don't quite know what the answer is, because there's a very high degree of uncertainty.
There is a constitutional provision, which says that if you meet the following criteria,
you get to have a referendum. So it tends to be really about momentum politically.
And this is what Nicola Sturgeon is seeking to generate. She's trying to generate a sense of
momentum behind referendum, which is then so overwhelming that the British Parliament and
the government decide they have to kind of bend to the will. And I think the big testing point
here is the local government elections in 2021, and also the elections to the Scottish assembly,
because if the SNP does overwhelmingly well in those elections, and of course,
it feels the sense that there is legitimacy to the demand that Boris Johnson had better let
them have that referendum, even though he has said publicly, he's very much against, he wants to keep
the United Kingdom together. And that means, you know, clamping down on these demands, not
just in Scotland, but also it's quite interesting to see the evolution of Northern Ireland as well,
because it may be that if Brexit turns a particular way, and borders are erected between
Northern Ireland and the Republic, that of course, the demand there will also be towards a vote on
reunifying Ireland, so geopolitics, very tense at the moment in the UK, Boris very determined
to maintain the integrity of the United Kingdom. But of course political momentum has its own
logic. And it may mean that we get a referendum, probably not next year, but maybe the year after.
Well, and Nicola Sturgeon is taking a very different approach from previous attempts,
she wants to rejoin the EU, but also avoid a hard border with England, keep the monarchy, become
an independent Commonwealth, much like Canada. So it is a very different vision that she has.
It is a vision which is very distinctive to her political party. So it is the kind of
Scottish National Party vision, which is a kind of non-antagonistic relationship with England,
that's a very wide space, but also very pro-European. So as I said, not every independent
minded Scots person thinks that that's the best way. But so far, that's the majority position,
and she's comfortable with it. She doesn't want to break the economic ties, she doesn't want
borders. But of course, we are seeing, you know, day by day, at the moment how difficult it is
to maintain that idea that you can have friction-free borders between a Brexit Britain and
the rest of Europe. And this is really becoming a kind of key issue in terms of the Northern
Ireland, Republic of Ireland issue. And if and if that goes down to well, we're going to have
to erect borders in order to maintain some sort of trading relationship with Europe, then it would
also have to be the case with Scotland as well. And that will also be a negative in the mindset
of the average Scottish voter, they will not want to see borders. There’s never been borders between
Scotland and England since Hadrian's Wall, which was erected by the Romans, of course.
So that's a very long time ago, and absolutely no one wants to see, you know, customs posts and
differential tax regimes and so on. So that that will be on the mind of Scottish voters as well.
As you say the struggle is real. Is voter fatigue also a real threat? I mean,
economic recovery is a big priority right now and is too much political upheaval a potential?
Well, I think COVID has been one of those, it's kind of set politics to one side for
a while in the UK, I think since March. We haven't really heard those kind of debates on a national
stage, we've not given a lot of space in the mainstream media, to ideas around Scottish
independence. Brexit only really flared back into life about two weeks ago, it's all been about,
you know, are we on the right path? Are we controlling this? Has Boris got the right
set of policies? Are we instead with the better policy responses in Europe or in America or in
Asia and so on? And I think these kinds of issues, therefore been very much on the back burner.
But what we saw a couple of weeks ago, Brexit coming back, I think Scottish independence will
come back. Are voters tired of voting? I mean, I think, a year or so ago, the answer would
probably been yes, because we had two general elections in quite close succession. But I do
think there's an appetite in Scotland. I mean, the last referendum was 2014. We're now in 2020.
The earliest one would be 2021. You tend to think that if you're going to have referendums, probably
10 years is the right kind of gap between kind of big referendums, like in Quebec, for example,
very similar kind of situation. I wouldn't rule it out at all. Something in 22, 23 maybe,
something as early as that and I wouldn't rule out at all while they're calling a border poll
in Ireland to look at the reunification issue there as well. So, yeah, we'll get some
referendums. But we don't do too much voting in this part of the world. So I kind of think there's
an appetite in those communities to retest the nature of political allegiance and affiliations.
It is a compelling state of affairs and we hope that you will
keep us updated. Dr. Tormey, thank you so much for your time today.
You're very welcome.