>> OFF THE TOP ON LOCAL 10 NEWS A 5, A NEW ADVISORY RELEASED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AS WE CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
TROPICAL STORM IAN.
>> THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO
BECOME HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THE WINDS HAVE
INCREASED AND WE HAVE LIVE TEAM
COVERAGE AS SOUTH FLORIDA
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY OUT
OF THE CONE.
LOCAL 10‘S JOSEPH OJO IS
STANDING BY IN MIAMI.
>> AND EXPERT MICHAEL LOWER
SEHERE WITH EVERYTHING YOU NEED
TO KNOW AND BEGIN WITH CHIEF
METEOROLOGIST BETTY DAVIS ON
THIS NEW ADVISORY.
BET ?E
>> GOOD AFTERNOON.
A LOT TO UNPACK HERE WITH
TROPICAL STORM IAN.
WINDS DROP OFF A BIT NOW AT 45
MPH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED MOVING TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH
AND CENTRED 220 MILES
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN
AND WE‘LL CONTINUE TO PASS WEST
OF THAT AREA TONIGHT TO EARLY
TOMORROW AND THE FORECAST TRACK
SHOWS IT NEAR WESTERN CUBA
EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN MAKES
THE WAY TOWARDS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND NOTICE THE
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND IT‘S
STILL FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE AND
IN FACT A CATEGORY 4 AS IT
MAKES THE NEAREST APPROACH LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE LOWER KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA BUT OBVIOUSLY KEEPING
PLENTY OF DISTANCE STILL BASED
ON THE FORECAST CONE AS IT
RELATES TO OUR AREA.
AND WE‘LL TRACK IT RIGHT INTO
THE MIDDLE AND THE END OF THE
WEEK MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
HEADED FOR A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE
ALONG THAT WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND MICHAEL WILL TALK
MORE ABOUT THAT.
BUT FIRST LET YOU KNOW THAT
EVEN IF THE CORE OF THIS KEEPS
PLENTY OF DISTANCE FROM SOUTH
FLORIDA, WE‘LL HAVE SOME IMPACT.
LOWER KEYS, THE TROPICAL STORM
AND WATER SPOUTS AS RAIN BANDS
COME INTO PARTS OF THE KEYS.
SOUTH FLORIDA AS WELL.
AND I‘LL DETAIL THAT IN JUST A
FEW MINUTES.
BUT FIRST LET‘S BRING IN
MICHAEL TO TALK A LOT MORE
ABOUT THIS MESSY LOOKING
TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND EXPLAIN.
>> IT IS.
AND AS DISORGANIZED AS IT LOOKS
LIKE ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE,
WE EXPECT IT TO STRENGTHEN AS
THE FORECAST SUGGESTS.
THE LOOK AT THE VISIBILITY
SATELLITE PICTURE AND WHOO
CHANGES TODAY IS WE‘RE SEEING
THE BETTER CIRCULATION WITH
WINDS AROUND THE SYSTEM AND
CIRCULATING IN A FASHION THAT
WE WOULD EXPECT IT TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY AS WE GET
INTO THE EVENING.
HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE OUT THERE
AND FLEW DOWN FROM FLORIDA AND
LAKELAND FLAXER FLA, AND BEEN
LOOKING AT WHAT‘S GOING ON
INSIDE AND AROUND THE SYSTEM.
ALL OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS FROM
THE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE GOING
INTO THE COMPUTER MODELS
TONIGHT AND HOPING THAT HELPS
US HAVE A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE SYSTEM BUT THE
THUNDERSTORMS, I CALL THIS
CONVECTIVELY STALLED.
THE THUNDERSTORMS STILL AREN‘T
THERE YET AND STILL DON‘T HAVE
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM
ESTABLISHED AND THAT‘S A GOOD
THING.
THE LONGER WE CAN WAIT IN TERMS
OF SEEING THE ORGANIZATION WITH
THE SYSTEM AND CERTAINLY THE
BETTER FOR ALL PEOPLE WHO ARE
IN THE THREAT OF THIS.
IN TERMS OF THE WATER VAPOR
PICTURE A BIT OF THE DRY AIR TO
THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE A GOOD
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON TOP OF
THIS AND RIGHT NOW THAT‘S WHY
WE THINK THIS IS GOING TO
ORGANIZE AND CONTINUE TO GROW
AND ESPECIALLY ONCE IT GETS IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
SOUTHERN BICYCLE HERE.
HIGHOCTANE FUEL FOR THIS TO
INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IN TERMS OF THE COMPUTER MODELS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO
WE‘VE SEEN A SHIFT IN SOME OF
THE MODELS THAT WERE TO THE
WEST GOING A LITTLE BIT BACK TO
THE EAST RIGHT NOW AND THAT
EUROPEAN MODEL WITH THE
AMERICAN GROUP OF MODELS AND
THE JET STREAM IS YOUING
TUGGING ON THIS MORE GRADUALLY
TOWARD THE PANHANDLE AND IT
PUTS IT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN FLORIDA AND TAMPA AND
THEN IN TERMS OF WHERE THIS MAY
HEAD, BUT EITHER WAY CATEGORY 4
OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND