>>> RUSSIA'S SUPPOSED TO BE A GUARANTOR OF THE REMOVAL OF
CHEMICAL WEAPONS FROM SYRIA. THINK ABOUT THAT.
RUSSIA IS SUPPOSED TO HAVE REMOVED ALL THE CHEMICAL WEAPONS
FROM SYRIA. BUT OBVIOUSLY THAT HAS NOT
HAPPENED. AS INNOCENT SYRIANS CONTINUE TO
BE MURDERED IN CHEMICAL ATTACKS. >> PENTAGON OFFICIALS ARE NOW
INVESTIGATING RUSSIA'S INVOLVEMENT IN THE CHEMICAL
ATTACK. PRESIDENT PUTIN'S SPOKESMAN SAYS
FRIDAY THAT THE MISSILE STRIKES SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGED
RUSSIAN-AMERICAN RELATIONS, SAYING PRESIDENT PUTIN CONSIDERS
THE U.S. STRIKES AGAINST SYRIA AN AGGRESSION AGAINST A
SOVEREIGN COUNTRY, VIOLATING THE NORMS OF INTERNATIONAL LAW.
NEXT WEEK SCHEDULED TO HAVE HIS FIRST FACE-TO-FACE MEETING WITH
PUTIN WHEN REX TILLERSON TRAVELS TO SYRIA.
REX TILLERSON SAID CLEARLY RUSSIA HAS FAILED IN ITS
RESPONSIBILITY TO DELIVER ON THAT COMMITMENT FROM 2013.
SO EITHER RUSSIA HAS BEEN COMPLICIT OR RUSSIA HAS BEEN
SIMPLY INCOMPETENT IN ITS ABILITY TO DELIVER ON ITS END OF
THAT AGREEMENT. JOINING US NOW TOM NICHOLS,
FOREIGN POLICY EXPERT WHO IS A PROFESSOR AT THE U.S. NAVAL WAR
COLLEGE AND THE AUTHOR OF "THE DEATH OF EXPERTISE."
AND FROM MOSCOW DAVID FLIPOF, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF FOR "THE
WASHINGTON POST." WHAT DO YOU SUPPOSE IS THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT PRESIDENT ASSAD WHO HAVE LAUNCHED A CHEMICAL
ATTACK WITHOUT VLADIMIR PUTIN'S KNOWLEDGE OR APPROVAL?
>> WELL, THERE IS ALWAYS THE THEORY THAT PRESIDENT ASSAD
DOESN'T WANT ANY PEACE AGREEMENT.
HE WANTS TO WIN THE WAR OUTRIGHT.
PRESIDENT PUTIN HAS BEEN TRYING TO BROKER A PEACE DEAL THAT
BRINGS IN TURKEY AND IRAN BECAUSE IT MAKES RUSSIA HAVE A
HIGHER PROFILE. FROM THAT POINT OF VIEW, WHAT
ASSAD SAW WAS A COMPLETE EMBARRASSMENT TO PUTIN AND IT
PUTS PUTIN IN A HORRIBLE SPOT. NOW HE IS THE GUY BACKING THE
PARIAH. NOW ASSAD BEING THE GUY WHO HE
IS, THE PARIAH PULLING THIS OFF AND PUTIN BEING AS SHOCKED AS
ANYBODY. DO I BACK THAT GUY OR STAND DOWN
AS MY POSITION AS THE REGIONAL PEACE BROKER?
IT'S TERRIBLE FOR PUTIN. >> AND WHAT WOULD BE IN THAT
SCENARIO, WHAT WOULD BE PUTIN'S CHOICE?
>> WELL, HE'S JUST SAID WE'RE GOING TO TURN OFF THE LINE OF
COMMUNICATION THAT PREVENTS AIR FRONT INDICATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA
AND U.S. AIRCRAFT. SO THERE IS THAT ROUTE, WHICH
HOW DO WE KNOW THAT THAT ENDS UP, YOU KNOW, WITH SOMEBODY NOT
SHOOTING SOMEBODY DOWN. OR THERE IS THE ROUTE OF NEXT
WEEK WHEN SECRETARY OF STATE TILLERSON COMES IN SAYING WE'VE
GOT TO BACK OFF OF ASSAD AND BACK OFF OUR SUPPORT, COME TO
SOME SORT OF AGREEMENT WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AND
CONDEMN THIS. I DON'T KNOW.
EVERYTHING WE'VE EVER TALKED ABOUT WITH PUTIN AND TRUMP IS
WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WHEN THERE IS A MILITARY
CONFRONTATION BETWEEN THESE TWO DISRUPTERS IN CHIEF.
AND WE'RE ABOUT TO FIND THAT OUT.
IT SEEMS TO ME IT'S HARD FOR PUTIN TO BACK WAY FROM HIS GUY
AT THIS POINT. >> TOM NICHOLS, VLADIMIR PUTIN
IS ASSAD'S MOST IMPORTANT SPONSOR, WITHOUT PUTIN THERE IS
NO FUTURE FOR ASSAD. PUTIN HAS GUARANTEED THE REMOVAL
OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS. THEN ASSAD USED HIS CHEMICAL
WEAPONS. WOULD HE USE THOSE CHEMICAL
WEAPON, GIVEN ALL OF THAT AND GIVEN PUTIN'S DIRECT
RESPONSIBILITY ON THOSE CHEMICAL WEAPONS.
WOULD HE HAVE USED THOSE WITHOUT CHECKING WITH VLADIMIR PUTIN
FIRST AND SAYING I HAVE THIS IN MIND?
>> IT'S QUITE POSSIBLE. I MEAN, THE RUSSIAN MILITARY IN
SYRIA CAN'T KEEP TABS ON BASHAR ASSAD ALL DAY LONG.
ASSAD RUNS HIS OWN COUNTRY AND HE RUNS HIS OWN MILITARY.
THIS IS NOT -- HE DOESN'T HAVE TO GO ALL THE WAY TO THE KREMLIN
FOR PERMISSION TO DO BE A THINGS.
AS DAVID JUST SAID, HE HAS NOW PUT PUTIN IN A TERRIBLE
POSITION. PUTIN IS A MAFIA GUY.
HE IS A MOB BOSS. AND ONE OF HIS UNDERLINGS JUST
MADE HIM LOOK REALLY BAD. PUTIN MAY HAVE DECIDE AT LEAST
THIS ONCE BECAUSE HIS GUY DID THIS ONE THING AGAINST THE
BOSS'S INTEREST THAT HE'S GOT TO TAKE A BEATING BUT O.
BUT MAYBE NOT REPEATED BEATINGS WHICH IS WHY PUTIN MAY HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT TO TURN OFF THE DECONFLICTION CHANNEL.
>> ACT OF AGGRESSION, INTERNATIONAL LAW, IT DIDN'T
SOUND LIKE THERE WAS ANY REALLY POWERFUL LANGUAGE IN THAT.
>> EXACTLY. IT'S AS MUCH AS ANYONE COULD
HAVE SAID WITHOUT ACTUALLY OFFERING ANYTHING AGGRESSIVE AND
WITHOUT ACTUALLY THREATENING TO DO ANYTHING.
EVEN TURNING OFF THAT LINE, THAT DECONFLICTING LINE, IT DOESN'T
AMOUNT TO AGGRESSION. IT'S ONLY AGGRESSION IF YOU
DECIDE TO SHOOT THINGS DOWN. LET'S NOT FORGET, THERE IS
ANOTHER PLAYER IN HERE. ASSAD IS NOT ALONE WITH RUSSIA.
IT'S GOT IRAN. IRAN IS ASSAD'S ALLY, AND IRAN
REALLY WANTS TO WIN THAT WAR AND DOESN'T WANT OTHER PEOPLE
INVOLVED IN IT EITHER. SO ONE OF THE THINGS THAT PUTIN
IS THINKING ABOUT, HEY, I HAD THIS BIG DEAL WITH IRAN AND
TURKEY. WHAT IS GOING ON HERE?
I GOT TO BE IN CHARGE OF THAT. SO WHEN PUTIN LASHES OUT AND ALL
HIS PEOPLE LASH OUT, TUNE THAT OUT AND LOOK AT IT.
WHAT EXACTLY IS HE DOING THAT HE WASN'T DOING YESTERDAY?
AND THERE IS NOT THAT MUCH. >> YEAH.
TOM NICHOLS, TO THAT POINT, WHAT IS VLADIMIR PUTIN'S NEXT MOVE IN
THIS SITUATION? >> WELL, HE HAS TO DECIDE JUST
HOW MUCH TROUBLE ASSAD IS WORTH. IN A SENSE HE IS BACKED INTO A
CORNER. HE CAN'T LEAVE HIM -- HE CAN'T
LEAVE ASSAD OUT IN THE COLD NOW THAT THE AMERICANS HAVE STRUCK
HIM. BUT HE'S GOT A TROUBLESOME
CLIENT, AND A CLIENT WHO CLEARLY HAS AN INTEREST IN THIS
DIFFERENT FROM RUSSIA'S WHO HAS OTHER FRIENDS LIKE IRAN.
AND SO I THINK THE REALLY INTERESTING QUESTION ABOUT WHAT
DEVELOPS NEXT IS YES, THE TRUMP-PUTIN RELATIONSHIP IS
GOING TO BE RECOGNIZE THE SEE WHAT HAPPENS NEXT.
BUT ALSO THE PUTIN-ASSAD RELATIONSHIP.
BECAUSE ASSAD JUST GAVE HIM A LOT MORE OF A HEADACHE THAN
PUTIN NEEDED, AND REALLY THAT HE PROBABLY THINKS THAT ASSAD
MERIT. >> AND DAVID, THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION TONIGHT IS GETTING OUT THE WORD THAT THIS
IS A ONE-TIME EVENT. THEY HAVE NO PLANS FOR ANY
FURTHER ACTIONS INVOLVING SYRIA. THAT'S THE BREAKING NEWS
ACTUALLY THAT IS COMING IN WHILE WE'VE BEEN SPEAKING, THAT
SENATORS WHO HAVE BEEN BRIEFED ON THE ADMINISTRATION'S PLANS
HAVE JUST REVEALED THAT THE ADMINISTRATION, THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION HAS NO FOLLOW-UP PLANNED FOR THIS AT ALL.
SO WHEN VLADIMIR PUTIN LOOKS AT THAT AND SAYS THEY COORDINATED
WITH US AHEAD OF TIME SO THAT WE COULD GET EVERYBODY OUT OF ANY
DANGER AT THAT AIRFIELD. THEY MADE SURE THEY DIDN'T
DESTROY THE AIRFIELD. THEY WERE IN EFFECT AS GENTLE AS
THEY COULD BE WITH A MISSILE STRIKE.
AND VLADIMIR PUTIN GETS THE WORD TONIGHT THAT THAT'S IT.
THAT'S THE END. DONALD TRUMP IS FINISHED.
HOW DOES PUTIN REACT TO THAT? >> WELL, YOU KNOW, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT PUTIN WAS NEVER GOING TO BACK DOWNEY WAY BECAUSE
HE IS VLADIMIR PUTIN. BUT LETTING THEM KNOW ABOUT THE
ROCKETS WAS PART OF THE PROCEDURE THEY WOULD HAVE HAD
WITH THE DECONFLICTING LINE. AND IT ALSO, BY THE WAY, SAVED
PUTIN FROM THE POSSIBLE EMBARRASSMENT THAT LET'S SAY
THEY TRY TO SHOOT DOWN 59 TOMAHAWKS AND THEY CAN'T DO IT.
THOSE SYSTEMS WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN ABLE TO TAKE OUT ALL THOSE
MISSILES. YOU WOULD HAVE HAD A SITUATION
THERE WHERE EVERYBODY IS FIRING AT EACH OTHER AND IT WOULD HAVE
LOOKED REALLY BAD FOR EVERYONE. BUT I SEE WHERE YOU'RE GOING
WITH THIS. THERE IS DEFINITELY A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SAME WAY PUTIN REALLY DIDN'T SAY ANYTHING
AGGRESSIVE TODAY, IT'S ALSO TRUE THAT THAT GESTURE REALLY DIDN'T
DO A WHOLE LOT OF DAMAGE. IT'S TWO ACTORS THERE NOT REALLY
DOING A WHOLE LOT WHILE MAKING IT LOOK REALLY, REALLY, YOU
KNOW, YOU KNOW, STRIKING. SO WHAT'S REALLY UP IS WHAT ARE
WE GOING TO SEE NEXT WEEK WHEN SECRETARY OF STATE TILLERSON
COMES. HOW ARE THEY GOING TO BE TALKING
TO EACH OTHER? ARE THEY TALKING ABOUT SOLVING A
PROBLEM? ARE THEY TALKING ABOUT
DECONFLICTING? ARE THEY TALKING ABOUT THE THIRD
WORLD WAR? I THINK IT'S NONE OF THOSE
THINGS. HOW WITH COMMITTEE MOVE FORWARD
AND SELL EVERYBODY ON THE IDEA. >> DAVID