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>>> REAL TALK, WHAT IS UP WITH
NEEDING TO REFINANCE YOUR
MORTGAGE EVERY TIME YOU GO TO
THE GROCERY STORE LATELY, AM I
RIGHT?
THE PRICES AT THE GROCERY STORES
LATELY ARE BANANAS, NOT ABOUT
JUST BANANAS, BY THE WAY, BUT
WHAT YOU MAY NOT KNOW IS THAT A
LOT OF THIS TRACKS BACK TO
RUSSIA'S UNPROVOKED ATTACK ON
UKRAINE.
LISTEN UP, BECAUSE THE PROBLEM
COULD GET WORSE.
UKRAINE IS NICKNAMED THE
BREADBASKET OF EUROPE BECAUSE IT
PRODUCES 10% OF THE WORLD'S
WHEAT, 14% OF CORN, AND HALF
SUNFLOWER OIL.
SO BETWEEN THE WAR AND THE
SANCTIONS, FOOD PRICES HAVE
SPIKED, AND SOME EXPERTS ARE
SOUNDING THE ALARM ABOUT A
GLOBAL FOOD SHORTAGE, AND AN
INCREASE IN WORLD HUNGER THAT
COULD IMPACT OUR OWN KITCHEN TABLES RIGHT HERE AT HOME.
TABLES RIGHT HERE AT HOME.
I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THIS WITH
JOE
JOE GLAUBER, THANKS FOR BEING
HERE.
WE HAVE TO TALK ABOUT RUSSIA'S
ATTACK AND HOW IT WILL CAST A
DARK SHADOW WHEN IT COMES TO
FOOD INSECURITY, IMPORTANT
RAMIFICATIONS OF THE MIDEAST,
NORTH AFRICA AND SUB SAHARAN
AFRICA IN PARTICULAR, EXPLAIN
FOR OUR VIEWERS HOW EXACTLY THAT
IS.
>> FIRST, BEFORE EVEN THE WAR IN
UKRAINE STARTED, COMMODITY
MARKETS WERE ALREADY AT VERY
HIGH LEVELS, SO PRICES FOR WHEAT
AND CORN AND SOYBEANS AND OTHER
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES WERE AT
THE HIGHEST LEVEL IN THE LAST
TEN YEARS.
UKRAINE AND RUSSIA ARE, AS YOU
SAY, VERY IMPORTANT EXPORTERS IN
THE WORLD MARKETS, ACCOUNTING
FOR ALMOST 30% OF WHEAT AND A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CORN AND
SUNFLOWER OIL THAT'S TRADED, AND
SO SHARPLY CURTAILED EXPORTS
COMING OUT OF THE REGION HAVE
SET PRICES HIGHER OVER THE LAST
SIX WEEKS, AND THESE ARE
GLOBALLY TRADED COMMODITIES.
PRICES ARE FELT BY EVERYONE, BUT
AS YOU SAY, PARTICULARLY THOSE
COUNTRIES THAT IMPORT A LOT OF
THOSE COMMODITIES DIRECTLY FROM
RUSSIA AND UKRAINE.
COUNTRIES IN NORTH AFRICA AND
THE MIDDLE EAST, WHERE WHEAT
ACCOUNTS FOR AS MUCH AS 35% OF
THEIR CALORIES, THEY'RE SEEING
PRICES GO THROUGH THE ROOF FOR
BREAD PRICES AND THINGS LIKE
THAT.
AND THEY IMPORT MOST OF THAT
WHEAT.
>> ARE THERE OTHER COUNTRIES IN
A POSITION TO MAKE UP FOR THAT
SHORTFALL.
LIKE YOU SAID, WE'RE SEEING THE
REALTIME CONSEQUENCES OF ALL OF
THIS.
>> YES, BUT IT'S GOING TO TAKE
TIME.
ABOUT 60% OF THE WHEAT CROP IN
THE WORLD IS PLANTED IN THE FALL
AND HARVESTED IN THE LATE
SPRING, EARLY SUMMER, SO WHAT
HOPE, OF COURSE, IS THAT THAT
WHEAT IS GOING TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE THIS WINTER, BUT MOST OF
THE REST OF THE CROP IS PLANTED
IN THE SPRING, AND THUS FAR, AT
LEAST INDICATIONS HERE IN THE
U.S. INDICATE THAT WE'RE NOT
GOING TO SEE THAT MUCH MORE
WHEAT PLANTED.
THAT'S PROBABLY TRUE IN CANADA
AS WELL.
A LITTLE LATER ON, WE'LL SEE
COUNTRIES LIKE AUSTRALIA AND
ARGENTINA PLANT FOR HARVESTING
AT THE END OF THE YEAR.
THAT'S ALL GOING TO TAKE TIME
BEFORE THOSE PRICES AND THAT
HARVEST STARTS GETTING ON THE
MARKET.
HOPEFULLY THE WAR WILL WIND
DOWN, AND WE'LL SEE MORE WHEAT
COME OUT OF THE BLACK SEA.
>> YEAH, YOU KNOW, WE TALKED A
LITTLE BIT ABOUT THIS YESTERDAY,
JOE, LISTEN.
IT'S REALLY HARD ON THESE
PROGRAMS SOMETIMES BECAUSE
PEOPLE WANT TO KNOW HOW IS THIS
IMPACTING ME.
WHY DO I CARE ABOUT THIS.
IT'S THE NARCISSISM OF AMERICANS
SOMETIMES THAT WE'RE APPEALING
TO, BUT THIS WILL IMPACT
AMERICANS RIGHT HERE AT HOME.
WHEN GLOBAL HUNGER HAPPENS, WE
GET IMPACTED HERE IN AMERICA.
BUT ALSO SUDDEN PRICE AND COST
IN FOOD, THIS CAN LEAD TO
ESSENTIALLY UNREST.
THIS ESSENTIALLY LED TO THE ARAB
UPRISING, THE ARAB SPRING THAT
WE SAW.
SHOULD THAT HAPPEN HERE, WHAT
DOES A FOOD SHORTAGE LOOK LIKE
HERE DOMESTICALLY AND HOW DOES
IT IMPACT OUR KITCHEN TABLES
HERE AT HOME?
>> YEAH, WELL, AGAIN, FOOD
INFLATION, WHEN WE LOOK AT THE
FEBRUARY NUMBERS, THEY WERE AT
THE HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE 1981.
FOOD AT HOME, UP 8.6% YEAR OVER
YEAR.
THAT'S A LOT.
NOW, I WOULD SAY THAT THE
COMMODITY PRICES ARE PROBABLY A
SMALL PART OF THAT.
WE ALSO LOOK AT ENERGY AND LABOR
AND OTHER THINGS THAT ARE ALL SEEING THESE STRONG INFLATIONARY
SEEING THESE STRONG INFLATIONARY
TRENDS, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT, A, L
OF BREAD, 5% IS THE COST OF THE
WHEAT.
IF YOU LOOK OVER THE LAST YEAR
OR 18 MONTHS OR SO, WHEAT PRICES
ARE UP ALMOST DOUBLE.
FLOUR PRICES UP 12%.
BREAD PRICES UP 6 1/2%, SO IT'S
NOT A PROBLEM OF AVAILABILITY
HERE IN THE U.S.
FOOD WILL BE HERE, BUT IT'S JUST
GOING TO BE MORE COSTLY, AND
THAT'S TYPICALLY A CONCERN FOR
POORER HOUSEHOLDS.
>> YEAH, AND WE KNOW POORER
HOUSEHOLDS, DISPROPORTIONATELY
ARE PEOPLE OF COLOR, AND TO
POINT OUT BEFORE WE GO TO BREAK
IN 2008, AND AGAIN IN 2011, FOOD
SHORTAGES AND FOOD PRICE
INCLUDES, WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
RIOTS IN MORE THAN 40 COUNTRIES.