Hi everyone, I hope you’re all well.
So, in the wake of the fourth Democratic presidential debate, the world
is wondering just how these candidates stack up against Donald Trump.
Well, if you pay attention to the media and their relentless
anti-Trump propaganda, it looks like he doesn’t have a hope in
hell.
However, amidst all the media hostility, Moody’s Analytics has
released a report that might give the non-partisan observer a bit of a
shock.
According to Moody’s, Donald Trump could win the 2020
election in an electoral college landslide, gaining 380 electoral
college votes to just 158, depending on the voter turnout.
And if anyone is wondering at the credibility of Moody’s Analytics,
they’ve been doing these election reports for decades, and have only
been wrong once, which was 2016.
But, most people got that wrong, and Moody’s have updated their methodology
accordingly, so we’ll forgive them.
According to Moody’s, if turnout is low, Trump will likely win with
that huge 380 number.
If the turnout meets the historical average, he would still win by a distance, although
not as dramatically.
The only scenario where Moody’s has the Democrats
winning is if turnout is the historical maximum, and even then,
it’s only by a tiny squeak of 279 electoral college votes to 259.
Wow.
So, how can all of this be the case, considering the hate Trump gets
from the media the noisy Democrats?
It is really quite remarkable, considering that according to the Media Research
Centre, as of October 2018, 92% of the media coverage of
Trump was negative.
Which would be appropriate if Trump did bad stuff 92% of the time,
but any normal, non-hysterical person can see that is clearly not the
case.
But that’s the thing; this negative media coverage is all very very
personal, with not a lot of depth.
Sure, the cries of Orange man bad, Russiagate, Ukrainegate, racist, sexist, bigot,
etc have been very persistent for the past four years.
However, for all the media and the Democrats talk about how Trump is a fascist
dictator, which they started doing way back in 2015 when he became
the nominee, what they have been saying does not match what’s
actually happened.
Trump is simply not behaving like the second coming of Mussolini
that the mainstream media and Democrats promised.
There are no segregation policies for anyone not white,
there’s no Muslim registry, there are no armies of racists roaming
the streets terrorising unexpecting citizens, women are not forced
to be back in the kitchen, or ostracised from the workforce;
all those things they dog whistled and hinted at and sometimes explicitly
mentioned are simply not there.
Instead, the country is doing really well.
And while the Democratss keep trying to puff up alleged scandals; come
on.
Most people don’t really care beyond a superficial level.
He’s an angel compared to the Clintons, which everyone knows.
And while there are polls floating
around that say about 52% of people want Trump impeached; what’s
new?
That pretty much mirrors the percentage of people who didn’t vote
for him in 2016, a bloc who are notoriously vengeful and take politics
very personally.
Honestly, Trump could cure cancer singlehandedly, and those people would say he was taking jobs
from doctors and cancer researchers.
So your average person looks at the media and these Democrat
politicians, compares what they’re saying to what’s actually going on,
and thinks hang on a second, perhaps I’ve been lied to here.
Hence the fact confidence in the mainstream media
is at an all-time low.
But this departure from reality and the disinformation spread by the
media and Democrat politicians tells only 50% of the story.
Donald Trump himself obviously plays a huge part
in why Moody’s has been able to make these predictions.
It’s also why, even in the face of relentless histrionic negative coverage, Trump’s
approval rating has remained reasonably stable throughout his
presidency.
Not overwhelmingly high, but stable.
While the Democrats are busy talking about a partisan and pointless
impeachment initiative, and fearmongering about the end of the
world, Trump is out there on the campaign trail already, most
notably his stellar rally in Minnesota last week
Here you’ve got a man who is brash, a bit naughty, brimful
of charisma, and oh so witty, who doesn’t do the political speak of
establishment politicians.
That is what ordinary people dig, and is what helped Trump win in 2016.
He also doesn’t shy away from calling himself a billionaire; he’s
happily owned that since 2015 This is
wise because, there is nothing worse than a super-rich politician
trying to pretend they’re just like ordinary working people
And for all you Australian out there
Instead, Trump uses his vast wealth to represent his track record of
business success, and never treats having money like a bad thing.
This is because he is appealing to the aspirational voter who is
chasing the American dream, the average citizen with big hopes and
bold plans for the future and dreams of success, financially and
personally.
That is not the kind of person who is wooed by class envy, demonizes
anyone on an above average income, or is in favour of taxing the
wealthy to the back teeth.
It’s the opposite of the “eat the rich” complex.
The aspirational voter likes Trump because Trump is a
winner.
Americans love winners, which is why he goes on about
winning all the time
The key to Trump’s rhetoric, is that it’s simple, it’s concise, and above
all else, it’s uplifting.
It’s galvanising, it makes people want to work
and strive and dream and succeed.
It makes people feel good about
themselves, I mean look at his 2016 schtick.
It was basically “We are going to rebuild this country, I’m going
to put you all to work in a good job to do it, and together we’re going
to make America great again”.
And he’s continued with that apparently winning strategy in his 2020
campaign, with “Keep America Great”.
It’s so unassumingly powerful.
It gives a sense of identity without being identarian, and speaks to
the individual, rather than the collective.
Now compare this to the other side.
While Trump was rallying in Minnesota to critical acclaim, the Democrats
were holding an LGBT Town Hall in Los Angeles, hosted by CNN.
And while I am a big advocate for LGBT people, honestly, holding
an LGBT Town Hall, especially in hyper-leftist Los Angeles, is
not, you would think, a vote winner, considering they are very much preaching
to the converted.
The Democrats already have most of the LGBT vote, and despite how
prolific LGBT issues are in popular culture, it’s actually a very niche
thing.
Only about 4.5% of the US population identifies as LGBT,
according to Gallup, so this kind of event is likely not going to really
interest your average American, or your on the fence Trump voter, at
least not on a vote winning level.
Particularly when the centrepiece was
Anyway, this decision pretty much sums up the schmozzle that is the
Democrat’s apparent election strategy; preach to the converted,
focus on stuff that is, beyond the realm of popular culture, niche,
and relentlessly scream orange man bad.
And just look at the candidates.
With the exception of a couple, they’re kind of terrible.
None of them really stand out as the kind of person
who could take on Donald Trump.
And yes, while most of them are polling ahead of
Trump by decent margins, so what?
Hillary Clinton was polling ahead of Trump in nearly every poll for the
entirety of the 2016 campaign, and she still didn’t win.
Just because someone prefers one individual over another
on a personal level doesn’t mean they’re necessarily going
to vote for them.
Anyway, the Democrats as a party don’t seem to have a unified issue
that they want to stake the election on.
Trump, on the other hand, has very clear election winning policies,
and they are very mainstream; the economy, border protection,
immigration, jobs, personal freedom.
This is stuff that affects everyone, and that everyone can easily get behind.
If it was me strategizing the Democrats big election issues, I’d stake it
on healthcare.
Certainly, the candidates are talking about it, but
some of their proposed policies, namely those of Bernie Sanders and
Elizabeth Warren, are so far to the left that they alienate a significant
chunk of people.
According to again, Gallup Poll, 54% of Democrat voters want their
party to move rightwards towards the centre.
This is opposed to only 41% of them who want the party to be more
left wing.
Why on earth are Bernie and Elizabeth and others pushing
for a further leftwards swing?
I get the want for universal healthcare.
I come from a country where we have universal healthcare and not one single
person, left or right, in the public discourse has any complaints
about its existence.
But Warren and Bernie’s idea of abolishing all health insurance and
forcing everyone onto a government funded Medicare for all scheme
is further to the left even than Australia.
We have a good balance of private and public health cover that works
extremely well.
This of course came up during the last debate; namely,
how you pay for it
Costs aren’t taxes Elizabeth!
In any case, there are a lot of people in the American middle class who already have
good heath insurance provided by their employers, which means their
employer fronts the cost for their medical expenses.
So being forced onto a Medicare for all plan means their costs in
terms of their taxes will most definitely go up with little reward.
What average American is going to vote for high taxes with no
return, or a candidate that shoots herself in the foot like that?
Then there are the other policies and issues that they seem to think
are going to win over your average voter, like open borders, identity
politics and race baiting gender neutral bathrooms,
and this constant moralizing about how rich people are evil, and
everyone except white people are oppressed, and how women’s
rights are allegedly under attack.
It’s moralizing as opposed to galvanising, which is what Trump does.
Nobody likes a moral lecture, but everyone loves a pep talk.
Plus the Democratic candidates continue to propagate
the raging climate change alarmism which we are all so sick of,
and of course, who could forget this?
In a country that doesn’t provide government funded universal
healthcare for its own citizens…how could they think people would
dig the idea of providing government funded healthcare for illegal
immigrants?
Like, how do you make that connection?
Then of course there’s the screechy cries of impeach impeach, even
though in order for Trump to actually be removed from office, 20
Republicans in the Senate will have to flip, which is highly unlikely.
And as a continuing chorus of hysteria, there is the relentless fear
mongering that Trump and his supporters are all racist sexist white
supremacist bigots.
Newsflash; thanks to leftists chronically overusing those words, they
have lost all significance.
Nobody else cares if someone is called a racist etc any more because the gravity of
that accusation has been diluted to the point of it being meaningless.
Democrats have learnt nothing from 2016.
Their strategy of polished politician-speak plus policy vagaries plus
orange man bad, which did not win them last election, is for some reason
the same one they are employing now.
All of this can perhaps explain why Moody’s analytics has made this prediction.
As for me, I’m not making any predictions at all.
I try very hard not to do that when it comes to elections; after
2016, anything could happen.
But at least you Americans can control the outcome if you
get yourselves to the ballot box.