Vladimir Putin cowers in his office. The sound of shouts from an angry mob echoes down the
hallway. It will only be a matter of seconds before they reach his door and break it down.
Putin’s military has turned against him, and the nation's people have risen up; this will
be the end of his dictatorship. The door bursts open. A mix of men dressed in uniform, civilians
holding makeshift weapons, and young people with rage in their eyes flood into Putin’s office.
The oppressive dictator covers his face and wets his pants. The Russian people
are angry. Putin will not make it through the night. The Russian people will literally tear
him apart. This is a scenario many around the world are hoping for. Unfortunately,
Vladimir Putin has made himself and his current regime coup-proof. Make no mistake;
there is plenty of unrest in Russia, and many Russian people would love nothing more than
to get rid of Putin, but this likely won’t happen any time soon. For years Putin has set
up precautions and contingencies to ensure his death grip on the Russian people remains firm.
Vladimir Putin is a brutal dictator who is strangling his own country and holding
a large part of the world’s natural resources—such as gas and oil—as ransom
to get what he wants. As the war in Ukraine continues to rage on, more and more Russian
citizens are becoming unhappy with the way Putin is running their country. However,
even if the majority of Russia wants a change in their government, there is practically no
chance of a revolution or coup happening with the current status quo. This is despite the fact that
the people of Russia are suffering more now than at any other time in recent history as economic
sanctions cripple the Russian economy and the war effort consumes its industries and citizens.
Food is becoming more and more scarce. Intense poverty is weighing on the majority of the
Russian people. And yet, Putin is still living a life of luxury and fueling his inferiority
complex by using precious national resources and the nation’s civilian population to fight
a war that he should never have started. The conscription of more people into the military
as casualties mount has led many to flee Russia and seek refuge in other countries.
However, at some point, the Russian people will have had enough. There is only so much
anyone can take before they rise up. Trouble is already brewing for Putin, yet he doesn’t seem
too nervous because of the contingencies he’s put in place to ensure he will never fall from power.
Based on history and current events, there are two ways that Putin could be removed
from power. The first is a military coup organized by high-ranking military officials
that would overthrow the current regime and replace it with a new one. The second way
Putin could be removed from power is by a popular uprising where the majority of
Russian citizens rally together to take back their country from the oppressive government.
It’s interesting to note that during the Cold War and the years after, coups tended to be the way
power shifts in a country occurred. For example, this is what happened with Fidel Castro in Cuba
and the removal of Juan Perón from Argentina’s government in the 1950s. However, from the 1990s
onward, authoritarians have been more commonly removed from power by popular uprisings than
by coups. This could be seen in the Arab Spring movement in 2010. Therefore, Putin may need to be
more concerned about his own citizens threatening his authority than a hostile military takeover.
That being said, Vladimir Putin has set up the Russian government and its structure in a way that
ensures neither one of these threats to his power could happen. No matter how selfish or idiotic
the decisions he makes are, there is nothing anyone in Russia can do to stop him. Internally,
Putin and his closest allies have calculated where threats to the regime might come from and
have put blockades in place to ensure that they can be squashed before ever gaining traction.
Putin probably spends more time thinking about how to stay in power than anything else. These
policies have led to the arrests and murders of countless dissidents while also oppressing
the generally silent majority. Putin is a true sociopath and a very dangerous person.
When Russia invaded Ukraine, Putin already knew there would be pushback
and protests from certain groups of people in his country. Therefore,
as he launched his invasion, he simultaneously deployed his national security forces to deal
with any anti-war sentiment that arose. As people took to the streets in protest,
police and military forces were ready to crack down and instill fear in the general public.
The State tightened its grip on the media allowing only pro-war and pro-Putin news
to reach the Russian people. On top of that, false information about wartime progress was
intentionally spread amongst the populace, along with a number of other lies to make Putin look
strong and to justify the sacrifices that the Russian people would have to make in order to
win the war against Ukraine. Social media was either highly censored or shut down in order
to stop any anti-war or anti-government information from reaching the people.
All of these things happened quickly, showing just how prepared Putin and his regime were
for any type of internal threat to their power. But let’s look at the intricacies
of Putin’s plan to ensure that a coup or public uprising doesn’t happen in Russia.
The sheer extent to which Putin and his allies will go to guarantee they never have to answer
to anyone else is staggering. Their tactics are brutal and truly terrifying. Anyone who wants
to speak out against the Russian government must risk their own life just to be heard.
Since Russia seems to be currently focused on waging war and slaughtering thousands and
thousands of innocent Ukrainian civilians while simultaneously taking heavy losses of their own,
it may seem that a military coup would be the biggest threat to Vladimir Putin’s power. There
is no doubt that a military coup is more likely now than before the war, as high-ranking generals
and military leaders are being punished for Russia’s shortcomings in the war. But even
with discontent within the military, a coup is still improbable because of the different
systemic structures Putin has put in place to ensure the military remains under his control.
Vladimir Putin has surrounded himself with devoutly loyal men who are rewarded for
ensuring no threat to his power ever arises. Their lives are good as long as Vlad is happy,
and when he isn’t, they can always push the blame on people below them and make sure they stay in
the dictator’s good graces. This is one of the reasons why Russia is in its current predicament
with Ukraine. Although many military advisors suggested that Russia should attack Ukraine with
the full might of the military to ensure a quick victory, Putin decided he didn’t want to follow
their advice. Instead of pushing back, military leaders had no choice but to accept Putin’s will.
When the invasion force entered Ukraine, they met much more resistance than expected, and Russia
suffered defeat after defeat. This enraged Putin, but he wasn't about to admit that he had made a
mistake, so others paid for it. By passing the blame onto military leaders not directly in his
inner circle, Putin can constantly be reassured that he is infallible, which obviously isn’t true.
This brings up one of the main catalysts for a coup and something that Putin’s
regime has already planned for. When an army suffers losses, and the blame is pushed onto
generals and other military leaders, it can cause insecurity within the ranks. If Putin
ever wanted to remove someone from their post and throw them in jail, there would be
little anyone could do to stop him. In fact, this has already happened. Putin has already
punished high-ranking FSB agents responsible for foreign intelligence failures. This even
includes one of the highest-ranking members of the Russian intelligence community, Sergei Beseda,
who was held directly responsible for faulty intel around Ukraine's military capabilities.
It’s unclear what will happen to the people Putin blames for the failed war effort,
but he has had plenty of his own people killed before,
and it’s not unheard of for someone who Putin is unhappy with disappearing without a trace.
It’s Putin's ability to blame others and get rid of anyone he deems a threat to his power that
has helped prevent a coup within his military. But there are other structures put in place to
make sure that even generals in the field have limited ways of gathering power for themselves.
To start with, coups of the past tend to be relatively bloodless. More often than not,
leaders who want to overthrow a current regime will not make a move until they are absolutely
sure they have the majority of the military behind them. When the coup is carried out,
it’s just a matter of turning the guns toward the outgoing regime and escorting them out of
their seats of power. Obviously, things don’t normally turn out great for the people being
ousted by the coup, but there are rarely any large battles when a military leader decides
to seize power with the backing of most of the military personnel in the country.
The problem with Russia is that no single military leader has enough power or autonomy to stage a
coup. And this is exactly how Putin planned it. For starters, Vladimir Putin and his cronies have
made sure to plant counterintelligence officers throughout the government,
so they are always aware of what is going on. The problem for military leaders who want to
stage a coup is that they have no idea who can be trusted and who will give them away to Putin.
It’s very difficult to organize the overthrowing of a government when your best friend or closest
ally might be an agent for Putin. This has sowed seeds of mistrust among military leaders
and prevented any one person from gaining too much support or rallying others behind them.
Also, Putin has made sure that the military itself doesn’t have too much power. For example,
separate security agencies are responsible for overseeing the repression of information
and maintaining order among the Russian people. This means that although military
leaders may have a certain amount of authority with their troops in the field, back at home,
they have few allies and very little contact with the leaders of other agencies.
On top of separating the military from internal affairs, Putin has structured many State agencies
so that the only way they can communicate with one another is through his most trusted allies.
An excellent example of this is the Rosgvardiya or Russian National Guard, which was created
back in 2016. This agency was designed to further separate the internal police and
law enforcement services from the military. The Rosgvardiya is led by a man named Viktor Zolotov,
who is insanely loyal to Putin and worships him like a god. This agency is in charge of border
security as well as counterterrorism and works closely with the Russian intelligence service.
This means that one of the Rosgvardiya’s responsibilities is to keep an eye out for
any insurrections or coups that may be developing within the military and immediately report them
to Putin. Interestingly not even the internal security force is one uniform body. To ensure
that there could never be a coup from the national guard, Putin’s regime has split
these branches even further into the FSB, GRU, and SVR. A final branch of the Russian National Guard
called the Federal Protection Services is similar to the Secret Service of the United States. These
men and women are tasked with protecting Vladimir Putin from any and all threats.
The Federal Protection Service consists of over 20,000 officers. Just to put this into
perspective, the Secret Service tends to have somewhere around 5,000 agents,
meaning that Putin’s personal security force is about four times larger than that of the
United States. With this many agents, Putin can ensure he is always surrounded by loyal,
highly trained military personnel that would lay down their lives for him. This provides
Putin with a blanket of protection from assassination attempts and minor uprisings.
What all of this means is that there is no single group of individuals or branch of the military
that has enough power to overthrow the government. There are checks and balances
put in place on each branch of the military to make planning a coup next to impossible.
Even if every single soldier in the military could be convinced to rise up against Putin,
there are several organizations that could undermine the movement
and forcibly remove those who thought they could overthrow the President of Russia.
If anyone did try to plan a coup, they would not just need to get their own branch of the Russian
military to unify behind them but somehow persuade allegiances from multiple other agencies as well,
all of which are controlled by Putin loyalists. The division of power and the intelligence agents
hidden within each organization and branch of the Russian military make coordinating a
coup in Russia next to impossible. It would only be a matter of time before
someone reported the plan back to Putin, and all members involved would be executed.
The meticulous and calculated nature by which Putin has divided the power amongst agencies
in Russia ensures that no single person can gain too much favor. He has made sure to sew
mistrust between leaders in the different branches of the military to guarantee his
regime is protected from a coup. This was done because the power-hungry dictator is constantly
paranoid about being deposed by someone else. By ensuring no one but Putin holds the keys to
the country, it means that the current Russian government isn’t going anywhere any time soon.
This brings us to the second way that Vladimir Putin could be removed from power. Like in the
Middle East, perhaps it’s the Russian people who could force the current dictator out of power.
But just like with preventing a military coup, Putin and his closest allies have ensured that the
people of Russia are repressed to the point where a large-scale revolution just isn’t feasible.
Since the war in Ukraine began, Russian citizens have become increasingly dissatisfied with how
Putin is running the country. With each defeat and the dragging out of what was supposed to
be a quick and decisive military operation, the lives of the Russian people have become harder
and harder. As more and more sanctions are placed on the country, it’s Russian
civilians who are being hurt the most. Food is becoming scarcer, and the economy is tanking.
This has led many to flee the country, but protests are also brewing in major cities.
Interestingly, these events are becoming more reminiscent of the two major uprisings that
occurred in Russia during the 20th century. The first was in 1905 against the czars,
which led to the Duma, Russia’s legislative body,
being established. The second was in 1917, which resulted in the formation
of the Soviet Union. Both revolutions were the result of popular uprisings,
and both came at times when Russia was engaged in wars that were unpopular with the masses.
The events of today are beginning to look more and more like these earlier Russian revolutions.
However, unlike the uprisings at the beginning of the 20th century, Putin has contingency plans
in place to ensure that any rebellion can be easily crushed. Even so, there can be
no denying that protests have been breaking out across the country, which may indicate
there are holes in Putin’s plan. Many people are voicing their displeasure on the streets
and via the internet. But will it be enough to incite a full-on revolution? Probably not.
Certain experts believe that in order for a popular uprising to occur, around 3.5 percent
of a nation’s population needs to engage in protests against the government. In Russia,
this means somewhere around 5 million people need to be publicly voicing their
displeasure with the way Vladimir Putin and his regime are running the country. Right now, the
number of people protesting is nowhere near that amount. As people take to the streets, the Russian
National Guard and other law enforcement agencies are brutally disbanding any organized protests.
These tactics used to keep people from protesting, even peacefully,
are openly supported by the government, as most forms of protests are illegal in Russia. And since
the Russian government controls all media outlets and communication in the country, the masses are
being force-fed pro-Putin propaganda and lies about how things are going in the country. When
people read the newspaper, watch the television, or check the internet, the only news they see
are stories that make Putin and his regime look like heroes and the West like monsters.
The misinformation campaigns and suppression of the truth make it extremely difficult for
any freethinking Russians to gather support for their cause. It has also
been reported that since the culmination of the Arab Spring movement in 2013,
Putin and his regime have been implementing laws that would protect them from any similar
uprising. The moment that Putin saw another dictator fall so close to his own borders was
the moment he started brainstorming how to keep a popular uprising from happening in Russia.
Before the Arab Spring, the Russian government had arrested anyone who spoke out against
their authority. After the Arab Spring movement, the number of social activists
and anti-Putin groups in Russia began to decline. This was because the government
began to arrest more and more people who were speaking out and, by some reports,
ramped up torture and executions of anyone who was deemed a threat to the current status quo.
The very real threat of being tortured or executed by the Russian government made joining a general
uprising a hard sell. Instigators of such an uprising need to convince millions of ordinary
people that the risk of death is worth the reward to overthrow Putin. It’s likely that anyone who
wants change in Russia knows at least someone who has been arrested, brutally beaten, or tortured
by the government. Knowing that you or your family could be their next victims because you speak out
against Putin has many terrified, and rightfully so. Unfortunately, this means organizing an
uprising is pretty much impossible in Russia. The number of military personnel loyal to Putin far
outnumber the ordinary citizens openly voicing their discontent with the current government.
During the Arab Spring movement, social media played a large role in coordinating
mass protests and connecting like-minded individuals. However, Vladimir Putin and
the Russian government control all of the social media in the country. This
makes organizing any sort of revolution much harder within Russian borders than it was in
Egypt or other parts of the Middle East. On top of the suppression of information,
Putin has flooded all media outlets with fake news that the war in Ukraine is going according
to plan and that the only way Russia will ever be safe is if Ukraine is under Putin’s control.
An independent survey conducted within Russia found that close to 60% of the population was
in favor of the war once Russia invaded Ukraine. This number has been declining,
but since there are no unbiased news sources available to most of the Russian population,
they have no idea how much of a disaster Putin’s war actually is. What the Russian people do know
is that the war is dragging on, and more people are being conscripted into military service
each day. These facts are hard to cover up, even for the State-controlled media.
Even still, as the majority of the country has been fed pro-Putin propaganda since birth, he
still has a significant amount of support from the general public. The brave protestors and Russian
citizens speaking out against the government will never be able to incite an uprising unless they
can find ways to disseminate information about their cause to the masses. Putin knows this,
which is why he has spent the last several years tightening his grip on social media and
information outlets in Russia. He understands that by controlling the flow of information
within the country, he can essentially prevent any form of organized revolution from occurring.
Suppressing protests and controlling information are definitely two major
tactics used by Putin to keep a popular revolt from overthrowing him. However,
he has not gotten rid of the old-school method of just throwing anyone who disagrees with him
in jail. Vladimir Putin has found ways to keep information from the general public,
but there have always been Russian citizens who have tried to speak out against him and
spread the truth about his brutal dictatorship. Activists who gain too much momentum almost
always find themselves at the mercy of Putin’s private security forces. In fact,
it’s not uncommon for leaders of protest movements to disappear, never to be heard from again.
It’s extremely dangerous to speak out against Putin in Russia, which is why so few people
do it. For those Russian citizens who do get their information from reliable sources and
want to change the way the country is run, there is very little they can do,
especially if they don’t want to risk their lives. Other than controlling information,
it’s fear that has allowed Putin to keep the masses from revolting.
This is why many anti-Putin activists eventually flee the country; otherwise,
being arrested is almost an inevitability. However, inciting a widespread revolution
from outside of Russia is all but impossible. There is no way for activists to reach the large
number of Russian citizens needed to start the revolution from outside the nation’s borders.
What Putin has created is a society where there is no real way to cause change. The
only changes that occur are those made by the government. And since the government isn’t
controlled by the people, a popular uprising is incredibly unlikely to happen in Russia.
That being said, nothing is impossible. Vladimir Putin has a stranglehold on the country,
but as the Russian people suffer more and more from the sanctions being placed on the nation,
protests could escalate, and change may be inevitable. Even if the majority of
Russian people believe what is being told to them through the State-controlled media,
there will be a tipping point where pain and suffering will start a revolution. Given a
choice between watching loved ones die in a war that Putin promised would be over long
ago or voicing discontent, even if it's dangerous, many Russians will eventually choose revolution.
As more people begin to feel the economic impacts the sanctions on the country are
having and begin to suffer due to lack of food, clean water, and resources,
they will blame those in power. Both a military coup and a popular uprising
become more and more likely the more the Russian people suffer. If history is any
indication of what happens to dictators who continue to fight a losing war and
allow their citizens to suffer, Putin may be ousted from power in the coming years.
However, Vladimir Putin has made it very clear he will not give up willingly. This is the reason he
has put so many contingencies in place to prevent a coup or uprising. If the Russian people do want
a change in power, they will most likely have to forcibly get rid of Putin. Whether this is done
by a clever group of military leaders that use the war with Ukraine as a way to meet in secret on the
battlefield, or activists finding ways to spread their anti-Putin messaging around the country,
there is a chance—even if it is small—that Putin could be removed from power in the coming years.
But even though this is what many people around the world are hoping for,
the likelihood of Vladimir Putin being ousted at this point in time is almost infinitesimal.
From the moment he took control of Russia, Putin has been implementing policies and setting up the
government in a way that ensures the only way he will give up his power is by having it pried
from his cold dead hands. Unfortunately for the world and the Russian people,
it seems like we are stuck with Vladimir Putin for the time being.
Now watch “Why Putin's Invasion of Ukraine is a Failure.” Or check
out “Insane Ways Vladimir Putin Survived Assassination Attempts.”