SHE HAS NONE OF THAT JUNK.
YOU KNOW THEY DON’T HAVE ALFALFA
BEANS, SHE’S OUT OF THERE.
CAROL ROTH JOINS US, FORMER
INVESTMENT BANKER, BRIAN
BRENBERG, ECONOMICS PROFESSOR,
FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR.
MOVIE BUFFS, BOTH OF THEM.
BRIAN, I’M WONDERING, THIS HAS
ME CONCERNED NOT ONLY BECAUSE
NOW I CAN’T BRING GOOD KEYS FROM
HOME IF THERE ARE NONE IN THE
THEATER -- GOODIES -- BUT I’M
ALSO SEEING PEOPLE PACKING THE
THEATER REGARDLESS.
AND THAT HAS GOT TO BE A SIGN OF
SOMETHING GOING ON, THAT
AMERICANS WILLING AND ABLE TO
ENDURE THE TRAGEDY OF NO POPCORN
JUST TO GET OUT.
[LAUGHTER]
SO THAT’S GOT TO BE A GOOD
REFLECTION ON SOMETHING, WHAT DO
YOU THINK?
>> I LOVE SEEING PEOPLE GO TO
THE THEATER.
I GUESS MAVERICK’S A GREAT
MOVIE.
I HAVEN’T SEEN IT MYSELF, I WANT
TO SEE IT.
IT’S FREE OF THE ANTI-WOKE
AMBUSH STUFF THAT YOU GET IN A
LOT OF MOVIES THESE DAYS.
BUT THE THING IS YOU GO TO THE
MOVIE, YOU SHOULD EXPECT TO BE
ABLE TO GET POPCORN, RIGHT?
THAT’S KIND OF BASIC.
YOU GO TO A BALL GAME, YOU GET A
HOT DOG, YOU GO TO A MOVIE AND
GET POPCORN.
IT’S LIKE A BIG CHECK ENGINE
LIGHT ON THE ECONOMY.
IT’S JUST SAYING THIS ECONOMY IS
NOT WORKING.
WE CANNOT ACCELERATE.
EVEN WHEN PEOPLE WANT TO TWO TO
THE THEATER, EVEN WHEN THEY WANT
TO SPEND MONEY, THEY’RE FINDING
OUTAGES, SHORTAGES, THEY CAN’T
GET THINGS DONE.
AND WHEN THEY SEE THAT, NEIL,
WHETHER THE ADMINISTRATION LIKES
IT OR NOT, PEOPLE LOOK TO THE
TOP AND THEY SAY, WHAT’S WRONG
WITH THIS?
WHY CAN’T WE DO THINGS THAT WE
COULD EASILY DO A COUPLE YEARS
AGO, AND WE’VE BEEN ABLE TO DO
THROUGHOUT HISTORY?
POPCORN IN A THEATER SHOULD BE
EASY.
IF IT’S NOT, THERE’S SOMETHING
WRONG, AND PEOPLE TEND TO LOOK
AT THE TOP.
NEIL: YOU KNOW, IT’S INTERESTING
TOO, CAROL, WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT
IT, THE UNDERLYING WILLINGNESS
OF THE CONSUMER TO PACK IF
AIRPLANES, TO TAKE THEIR TRIPS,
TO ABSORB THESE HIGH PRICES FROM
TICKET PRICES TO, YOU KNOW,
GASOLINE PRICES.
EXPLAIN THE FACT THAT, YOU KNOW,
THEY’RE ITCHING TO GET OUT AND
HAVE SOME FUN EVEN WHEN IT COMES
TO THE THEATER, EVEN IF IT MEANS
WATCHING TOM CRUISE.
[LAUGHTER]
SO I’M WONDERING, I’M
WONDERING -- AND THAT’S MANY ALL
DEFERENCE TO THE PROFESSOR --
[LAUGHTER]
BUT I’M WONDERING WHAT THAT SAYS
BECAUSE MANY PEOPLE HEARKEN BACK
TO THE 1970s AND THE JIMMY
CARTER EXPERIENCE AND SAY WE’RE
BACK THERE.
I DON’T SEE.
THAT I DIDN’T SEE THAT
UNDERPINNING THEN.
WE MIGHT GET THERE, BUT I DON’T
SEE IT NOW.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> NO.
FIRST OF ALL, I’M ALL FOR
SNEAKING WATER AND CHOCOLATE
INTO THE MOVIE THEATER BUT VERY,
VERY DIFFICULT TO SNEAK 2
POPCORN.
I -- TO SNEAK THE POPCORN.
I FEEL LIKE PEOPLE NEED TO DRAW
THE LINE THERE.
IN TERMS OF THE CARTER
ADMINISTRATION, IT’S VERY
DIFFERENT BECAUSE WE’RE IN A
SCENARIO WHERE PEOPLE WERE
LOCKED DOWN THE BY MANDATES --
THE.
NEIL: TRUE.
>> -- YOU KNOW, FOR A COUPLE OF
YEARS, AND SO THEY DO HAVE THIS
DESIRE.
THEY’VE OVERSPENT ON GOODS,
THEY’RE MOVING AND
TRANSITIONING, AND THEY’RE
MOVING TO THE SERVICES PIECE OF
THE ECONOMY.
AND TO BRIAN’S POINT, THEY’RE
WILLING TO KIND OF PUT UP WITH
NOT SO GREAT SERVICE JUST TO
EXPERIENCE ANYTHING BECAUSE IT’S
BEEN DENIED TO THEM FOR SO LONG.
I THINK, NEIL, THE PART THAT I’M
VERY CONCERNED ABOUT IS THAT THE
POWERS THAT BE ARE REALLY
COUNTING ON CONSUMER TO SAVE THE
ECONOMY, SO THEY’RE COUNTING ON
THE CONSUMER TO PUT THEMSELVES
IN THEIR WORSE FINANCIAL
POSITION, TO DIP INTO THEIR
SAVINGS, TO INCREASE THEIR DEBT
IN ORDER TO SAVE THE ECONOMY AND
BAIL OUT THE BAD WITH DECISIONS
THAT WERE MADE BY MONETARY
POLICY, FISCAL POLICY AND AN
OVERALL GOVERNMENT POLICY BASIS.
NEIL: I WONDER TOO, GUYS -- AND,
BRIAN, I’LL PICK YOUR BRAIN ON
THIS -- THIS IDEA THAT
CONSUMERS, WHILE THEY MIGHT SAVE
THE ECONOMY, THEY’RE NOT IN THE
SAME MOOD THEY WERE.
I DON’T KNOW WHY, THE MAGIC OF
THE FALL AFTER THE SUMMER, YOU
START GETTING YOUR BILLS IN THE
FALL, THEY’LL FREEZE UP.
DO YOU BUY THAT?
>> YEAH, I DO.
I MEAN, I THINK THIS SUMMER IF
PEOPLE ARE -- THEY WANT TO HAVE
THE FUN.
THEY WANT TO GO DO SOMETHING.
THEY WANT TO TRAVEL, THEY WANT
TO GO TO A PARK, HAY WANT TO
CAMP, HAY WANT TO HAVE THE
EXPERIENCES.
SUMMERTIME IS THE TIME TO DO
THAT.
SO THEY’RE DIPPING INTO THEIR
SAVINGS TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN.
BECAUSE FROM A SANITY
STANDPOINT, THEY NEED IT, NEIL.
BUT WHEN YOU GET TO THE FALL AND
THAT DIES DOWN, THAT THE
CONSUMER SAYS I’M OUT OF MONEY.
PRICES HAVEN’T MODERATED, THINGS
ARE NOT LOOKING GOOD.
YOU KNOW, BY THAT TIME WE MIGHT
OFFICIALLY BE IN A RECESSION.
NEIL: INTERESTING.
>> I THINK THE FALL IS SCARY
BECAUSE THOSE ANIMAL SPIRITS WE
ALWAYS TALK ABOUT IN THE
ECONOMY, I THINK THAT THEY KIND
OF SUBDUE BIGTIME, AND THE
CONSUMER SAYS YOU’VE TAPPED ME
FOR ALL I’VE GOT, I’M OUT.
AND THEN THIS ECONOMY’S IN
TROUBLE BECAUSE, CAROL’S RIGHT,
THE ADMINISTRATION HAS LEANED ON
THE CONSUMER STICKING WITH THEIR
SEND SPENDING ALMOST TO THE
POINT OF ABUSE, AND CONSUMERS
CANNOT TAKE THAT ALL YEAR LONG.
NEIL: YOU KNOW, ON FRIDAY WE’RE
GOING TO HAVE THE CONSUMER PRICE
DATA, THE RETAIL INFLATION DATA,
CAROL, AND MOST SEEM TO THINK
IT’S GOING TO RUN NORTH OF AN 8%
ANNUAL CLIP.
I NOTICE A LOT OF THE DATA WHEN
IT COMES OUT ON INFLATION,
YOU’LL SEE THE ADMINISTRATION
SEIZE ON THE FACT THAT
INFLATIONARY NUMBERS ARE NOT
INCREASING AS QUICKLY OZ -- OR
AS MUCH AS THEY WERE.
IT’S COMING DOWN.
I TRIED THIS WHEN I WAS IN
SCHOOL --
[LAUGHTER]
TOLD MY PARENTS I GOT ALL Fs,
SO IF I GOT A COUPLE OF Ds AND
Cs, I LOOKED LIKE MENSA
MATERIAL.
[LAUGHTER]
I MOW THAT GAME.
WHAT ABOUT YOU?
>> FIRST OF ALL, NEIL, I SAW YOU
WITH AT THE LAST MENSA MEETING,
SO YOU DON’T HAVE TO DOWNPLAY --
THE.
NEIL: NO, NO --
[LAUGHTER]
>> YEAH.
I MEAN, THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
I’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT FOR A
LONG TIME.
YOU KNOW, AT SOME POINT WE RUN
INTO A MATH ISSUE WHERE THINGS
ARE GOING TO BE DOWN ON A
YEAR-OVER-YEAR BASIS JUST
BECAUSE THE COMPS ARE SO HIGH.
AND I’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE
FOR A LONG TIME THE FACT THAT
THE POWERS THAT BE, THIS
ADMINISTRATION, ALL OF THEIR,
YOU KNOW, QUOTE-UNQUOTE USEFUL
IDIOTS, ARE GOING THE TO BE
DOING VICTORY LAPS.
IT’S COMING DOWN.
BUT IN THE LONG RUN, IF WE HAVE
A YEAR AT 6% OR AT 5% EVEN,
WHICH IS STILL A FAR WAYS AWAY
FROM WHERE WE ARE TODAY THE,
THAT’S NOT A GOOD THING FOR THE
CONSUMER BECAUSE THAT’S ON TOP
OF ALL OF THE INCREASES THAT WE
ALREADY SEE.
AND SO, YOU KNOW, ON A MOM
MALL -- NOMINAL BASIS THE IMPACT
ON GDP, I THINK, IS GOING TO BE
VERY, VERY SIGNIFICANT, AND IT’S
SOMETHING THAT WE REALLY DO
IMMEDIATE TO SET THE RECORD
STRAIGHT ON BECAUSE -- NEED TO
SET THE RECORD STRAIGHT ON
BECAUSE THERE’LL BE A9 LOT OF
PEOPLE TOUTING THAT AS A
VICTORY.
NEIL: YOU GUYS ARE SO GOOD.
CAROL, YOU CAN GO AHEAD AND
BRING THE WATER.
THAT THE SEEMS USELESSES TO
ME --
[LAUGHTER]
BRIAN AND I WILL BRING THE OTHER
GOODIES, A LITTLE PROSCIUTTO,
PEPPERONI, IT’S A PARTY.