Bangladesh is the World’s best country…
if you don’t want to be alone.
This country has half of the population of America but concentrated inside an area the
size of Illinois.
It is the most densely populated country on the planet.
This is also one of the fastest growing countries in the last two decades.
In less than 20 years, Bangladesh has cut poverty in half.
Today, they are the leader in textile manufacturing, only surpassed by China.
In fact, I’m sure your shirt, your trousers or something else you’re wearing today is
made here.
But wait a minute because it is still too soon to open the champagne bottle!
Yes, Bangladesh grows fast.
But still today, 13% of their population lives on less than 2 dollars a day.
That’s 20 million people.
Add to this the fact that Islam is the main religion in the country and you have headlines
like this one.
Terrorist activity increased in Bangladesh in 2016 amid global fall in attacks
Despite the fact that Bangladesh has a secular constitution, adulterous women are stoned
to death in some regions.
And 80% of the population agrees with changing the legislation so it meets the principles
of SHARIA law.
Meanwhile, despite the radicalism of some citizens, the prime minister, SHEIKH HASINA,
is a woman.
And the opposition leader, KHALEDA ZIA, is also a woman.
So the situation is far from quiet.
Especially given that in the next year, 2018, Bangladesh will hold elections that might
be crucial for the future of this country.
So the question to be made here is…
Can Bangladesh become an Islamic Republic?
Why do we think Bangladesh is a demographic bomb?
Today we are going to answer these questions, but before we do, let’s take a look back
at history.
ONE COUNTRY, TWO FAMILIES
In 1947, the British Empire let the Indian colonies become independent.
The parts where HINDUISM was the main religion became what today is INDIA.
The parts with an Islamic majority became PAKISTAN.
But things are not as simple as they seem.
The Muslim part ended up divided into two parts.
As you can see on the screen, India was in the middle, and to the left and right there
was Pakistan, with a political system based on Sharia law.
2,200 kilometres divided these two parts that belonged to the same state.
As you can imagine, this just couldn’t work properly.
In fact, putting aside the fact that they had the same religion, these two parts had
nothing in common.
They didn’t even speak the same language.
Western Pakistanis despised the Eastern Pakistanis, also known as the bengalies, wanted to have
their own country as well.
So in 1971 the Liberation War started.
Estimates say that between 300,000 and 3 million civilians died in this war.
But, as a result, a brand new country was born.
And this was the People’s Republic of Bangladesh.
This is also how MUJIBUR RAHMAN, or as they know him, BANGABANDHU, became the first president.
So since Pakistan was an islamic country and Bangladesh hated Pakistan badly, Bangabandhu
designed a constitution that was completely secular.
In fact, they followed the ideological fashion of the time, so called ARAB SOCIALISM.
This was an ideological cocktail that combined authoritarian leaders, centralized economy
and secularism.
But wait a minute because it was not that easy.
4 years later, BANGABANDHU and his whole family died in a coup d’etat made by those who
supported Pakistani rule during the Liberation war.
Only his two daughters survived.
One of them, SHEIKH HASINA is the current prime minister.
But let’s get back to the coup d’etat.
After two years of political stability and the influence of the CIA, General ZIAUR RAHMAN
became the man in charge.
One of his most controversial decisions was to give amnesty to the pro Pakistani, and
therefore, islamist soldiers who killed Bangabandhu.
This is how the big ideological divide was created in Bangladesh.
On one hand, we have the family and the political party of General RAHMAN, the BNP or Bangladesh
National Party.
They are a conservative coalition with a strong presence among islamist parties.
Some of those who participated in the coup d´etat in 1975 became members of this BNP
party.
On the other hand, we have the party of BANGABANDHU, the so-called AWAMI LEAGUE that can be considered
socialist and secularist.
General Rahman ruled the country for 4 years.
Then, of course, came another coup d´etat.
Bangladesh was ruled by the military until 1991, when democracy came back to the country.
But wait a minute because the Bangladesh way of democracy is far from democratic…
ONE COUNTRY, TWO WOMEN
Since 1991, those two political parties had two main leaders.
On the BNP side, we have KHALEDA ZIA, the widow of ZIAUR RAHMAN.
On the Awami side there is Sheikh HASINA, the daughter of BANGABANDHU.
Since then, elections have been a fight between two women that alternate in power every 5
years.
Neither one of them can win the elections consistently.
In fact, elections in Bangladesh are absolute hell.
Usually, the opposition party organizes violent protests and never ending strikes that paralyze
the country.
But in 2006, things changed.
Back then, the Awami league, led by Sheikh Hasina disagreed with the way they organized
the elections.
This was business as usual.
But this time, the military tried to make a coup d´etat to put some order in the country
like they had in the 80s.
Elections had to be postponed for two years.
And finally, Sheikh Hasina, won the elections.
In that moment, Hasina learnt a lesson: the important thing is not winning the office
but keeping it.
Remember when I told you that General Rahman gave amnesty to those who killed BANGABANDHU
40 years before?
Well… his daughter Sheick Hasina had a good memory.
And she took those memories from the past to sue all those islamists who might challenge
her power, those who participated in the 1975 coup d´etat.
BANGLADESH EXECUTES LEADER OF LARGEST ISLAMIST PARTY
MOTIUR RAHMAN NIZAMI HANGED FOR CRIMES COMMITTED DURING 1971 WAR OF INDEPENDENCE WITH PAKISTAN
If this wasn’t enough, she broke one of the biggest political traditions in Bangladesh.
Usually, during an elections, the parliament would create a neutral government in order
to guarantee a clean and fair process.
But Hasina was not willing to leave power.
The opposition boycotted the elections.
And Hasina won with 79% of the vote.
BANGLADESH RULING PARTY WINS AFTER BOYCOTTED VOTE
In other words…
now, in 2017, Sheikh Hasina is the strongest leader in Bangladesh history.
And this is no little thing if we remember this is a country of more than 160 million
inhabitants.
So the question now is… is there anyone who can match Hasina’s power?
Well… the answer is YES.
DEMOGRAPHIC BOMB
As we said at the beginning, over 20 million Bangladeshi citizens live in extreme poverty.
They are young and extremely religious.
In other words, they are the perfect market for a radical islamist movement.
And yes, you might say now…
‘But, Simon, Didn’t you say Bangladesh is one of the fastest growing countries?’
Yes!
This is exactly why those 20 million poor citizens are a real problem.
Listen, if you want to start a populist revolution, never go to an extremely poor country.
In fact, most of the radical movements appear when countries are starting to grow or are
stepping out of a crisis.
That’s your window of opportunity.
That is the moment when the worse off citizens can feel jealous of those who are getting
wealthier and wealthier.
Those 20 million impoverished citizens are a perfect target for radicalization.
And a real threat to the country’s stability.
This is why terrorist attacks have been getting more and more frequent in Bangladesh since
2013.
Many of the victims are bloggers who claim to be atheists and tried to spread secularism
in the country.
But the real wake up call came in 2016.
Bangladesh attack: Isis gunmen kill at least 22 people in hostage crisis at Dhaka restaurant
Since then, Sheikh Hasina has been trying to stop terrorism.
Nonetheless, as I said, in 2018, elections will be held.
And the government is trying to gain support from that religious population.
This is why Hasina is letting Saudi Arabia invest 1 billion dollars into the building
of 560 mosques throughout the country.
At the same time, she is making it harder for women to inherit money and easier for
minor girls to get married to much older men.
But not only that!
An Islamic propaganda group called HEFAZAT-E-ISLAM sent their agenda with 13 political suggestions
to the government . For instance, they wanted the religious teachings
given at radical mosques to be considered at the same level as any academic institution.
And, against the odds, Sheikh Hasina has accepted that and other proposals from the radicals.
Don’t forget that she and her party are the ones that stand for the secular values
against a more traditional approach from the BNP party.
So this leads to the big question here…
Do you think Bangladesh is at risk of becoming a de facto Islamic republic?
Or is this just a political game for Sheikh Hasina to strengthen her power before the
elections?
Please, leave your answer in the comment section below.
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