Henry: Today I’ve got guest and Physicist Max Tegmark here to answer some questions…
Ok, Max, why should I care about nuclear weapons?
Max: Because we’ve learned that they’re even more dangerous than we first thought:
The biggest threat from nukes isn’t explosions that each kill millions of people, or radioactive
fallout that kills even more, or even a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse that causes mayhem by
frying the electrical grid and electronics across a continent
No, the biggest threat from nuclear weapons is a global nuclear-induced winter, in which
the fires and smoke from as few as a thousand nukes could darken the atmosphere enough to
plunge Earth into a planet-wide mini ice age with year-round winter-like conditions. This
could cause a complete collapse of the global food system and apocalyptic unrest, potentially
killing most of us 7 billion people on Earth.
Henry: But didn’t we get rid of most nuclear weapons when the cold war ended?
Max: Well… Yes and no. When the cold war ended, the US and Russia slashed their nuclear
arsenals, but they still have about 7000 nukes each, which could allow either country to
create a nuclear winter all on its own, even if the other doesn’t retaliate.
Henry: But why should I worry about nuclear winter when nobody in their right mind would
ever start a nuclear war? Max: Unfortunately, an all-out nuclear assault
isn’t as unlikely as you might think, because the most likely way for nuclear war to start
isn’t political – it’s accidental. For example, the time faulty computer chips in
US alarm systems erroneously signaled incoming Soviet missiles and the US started to prepare
for full-blown retaliation. Or the time that Russian satellites mistook an unusual glint
of sunlight off of clouds for incoming American missiles and an officer averted retaliation
by ignoring the alarm on gut instinct. Or the time after the cold war ended when Russian
radar systems thought a Norwegian scientific rocket was an American nuclear missile and
almost launched their missiles in retaliation. These close-calls keep happening, and sooner
or later our luck is gonna run out and an entire nuclear arsenal will be launched accidentally.
Henry: But isn’t getting rid of nukes a national security threat?
Max: Well, it’s pretty clear that a country only needs a small number of nuclear weapons
to effectively deter nuclear attacks, and any more are as much a national security threat
to the nation that owns them as to the rest of the planet. So given the risks of accidental
nuclear war and nuclear winter, it’s stupid, dangerous, and irresponsible for *any* country
on earth to have more nuclear weapons than it needs for deterrence. If we just continue
hoarding excessive nuclear arsenals, winter is coming.
Henry: OK, Max, one more question: why should I spend my time worrying about nukes when
there’s nothing I can do about them?
Max: Actually, there *is* something you can do! The nuclear arms race isn’t driven entirely
by security interests: money drives it too, and politicians who like to act tough. In
a time when they really should be downgrading, the US & Russian governments are both planning
to upgrade their arsenals at a huge cost. And who does that money go to? Well, about
2% of S&P 500 companies are involved in nuclear weapons production, and while you can’t
stop paying taxes, you can help stigmatize the nuclear arms race by divesting from companies
that produce nuclear weapons. It’s really easy, and I’ll give you a link that you
can put in the video description to a site that helps you do just that.
Henry: Thanks, Max and thanks to the Future of Life Institute for their support and help
producing this video!