Hey there VisualPolitik community, it seems like we just started yesterday, but the truth is that
this VisualPolitik channel has been here on this platform, on YouTube, for more than 6 years now.
During this time we have uploaded more than 760 videos – How crazy! – We have also seen the launch
of VisualEconomik, and our Patreon bulletin. Of course, all this has been possible thanks
to all of you. To the more than 1.3 million subscribers who are part of this community
and who accompany us day after day, month after month, year after year. That is something that,
believe me, all the members of this team are very grateful for.
Well, today with this video we are launching a collaboration that makes us very excited.
This is the first video that VisualPolitik has made with our friends at Harvard International
Review. We’ll leave a few links in the description so you can get to know them better.
We hope you like the result as much as we do.
Back in 2018, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO, was elected president of Mexico.
And not only that. This former mayor of the country's capital, who had already
run for the presidency in 2006 and 2012, not only won the presidential elections,
but also, for the first time since 1988, the president's party also won a majority in the
Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. And so, the United Mexican States
were almost completely under the control of AMLO and his party,
the National Regeneration Movement or MORENA. The victory of AMLO, who presented himself as
the man of the people, put an end to the political binomial that dominated
Mexican politics for almost 90 years. Between 1929 and 2000, the Mexican
government was in the hands of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, the PRI. In 2000, Vicente
Fox of the National Action Party managed to break that monopoly. He was followed by Felipe Calderón,
another politician from the same party. And it was only in 2012 that the PRI regained the
government under Enrique Peña Nieto. Even so, it was not a big change,
at least not a change as pronounced as the victory of AMLO and MORENA in 2018.
Because the truth is that the current Mexican president essentially came
to power with three major promises: First and foremost, to be the people's president.
The president who would put the poor first and end the corruption of the big elites once and for
all. We're talking about guys like, for example, the former governor of Veracruz, Javier Duarte,
who allegedly stole almost $3 billion. Second, to tackle poverty and third,
to confront the enormous wave of violence that the country was suffering.
After coming to power, AMLO suspended the construction of the new Mexico City airport,
created a new National Guard, suspended the granting of new oil licenses and
renewable energy auctions, and above all launched a huge social policy package:
For example, he has raised the minimum wage, increased gas and electricity
subsidies and channeled billions in direct transfers to more than 10 million Mexicans.
"During the neoliberal governments, humble people were not taken care
of. Now everyone is attended to, but preference is given to the poor and the indigenous"
Thus, despite a faltering economy and the fact that the oil company PEMEX, the once crown jewel
of the Mexican state, is now on the ropes and that violence remains out of control, the truth is that
AMLO has maintained very high approval ratings. Basically, López Obrador is one of the most
popular leaders on the planet. We are talking about approval
ratings between 60% and 70%. Check it out. So in this video we want to focus on one of
the great projects of this president, a great investment with which he intends to revitalize
one of the poorest regions of the country. We are talking, of course, about the Tren Maya,
or Maya Train, a mammoth work that will cost close to 20 billion dollars, that will cross
the jungle and that was conceived with the promise of doing nothing short of transforming Mexico.
Listen up. (CROSSING THE JUNGLE)
This is Andrés Manuel López Obrador's political diamond, the emblematic project that will shape
his legacy. A great work with which the president aspires to resuscitate one of the
poorest regions of the country economically. This project is so important to the Mexican
president that in 2021 López Obrador went so far as to declare it a matter of national security. He
did so in order to be able to resume the works after a court had suspended them for possible
violation of environmental impact legislation. And then, when this decree was declared
unconstitutional, AMLO again published another revised decree in which he insisted
on exactly the same thing: the Mayan train is infrastructure that affects national security and
the public interest. A project whose direction and supervision, because it affects national security,
falls to the armed forces themselves. (18 May 2023: AMLO issues new decree for
infrastructure works to be considered national security – El Economista)
("We are resorting to a procedure established by law, which is to declare this work of national
security, for many reasons: because a foreign government (US) is interfering,
because money is being lost from the budget, because it is a priority work,
because delaying tactics are being applied and because there is no
quick justice"– Andrés Manuel López Obrador) VisualPolitik viewers, with a length of 1,525
kilometers or 948 miles, the Mayan Train will connect the states of Quintana Roo, Chiapas,
Tabasco, Campeche and Yucatan. One of the most important tourist regions in the country.
This is by far the most ambitious rail line to be built in Mexico in decades.
It will connect the main cities and tourist regions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
from the white sandy beaches of Cancun to the archaeological remains of Tulum.
As a result, the government expects this train to increase tourism revenues by 20% and help
create more than one million jobs. This would help reduce poverty in the Yucatan Peninsula. A
region where some of the poorest states in all of Mexico are located. For example, in states
such as Chiapas and Tabasco, more than 50% of the population lives in poverty or extreme poverty.
But...Perhaps the biggest problem is that the cost of this project has skyrocketed.
The initial estimate was around 6.5 billion dollars, then it was announced that it would
slightly exceed 11 billion. And now, when there are still many months to go before the work is
due to be completed, they are already talking about $20 billion. So it is possible that the
final figure will be even higher.("Mexico's Mayan train project will cost as much as
$20 billion, 70% over budget – Bloomberg) The thing is, we are not only talking about
AMLO's legacy, but also about one of the most controversial projects in Mexico. And, guess what,
this is the crucial moment of this video: What will the Maya Train really entail?
What are the main arguments for and against this colossal piece of infrastructure? Does it really
make sense? How is it possible that a train, a simple train, has become so controversial?
Well VisualPolitik viewers, let's answer all these questions. Let's take a closer
look at the pros and cons, the threats and opportunities of AMLO's great dream.
(LIGHTS AND SHADOWS) A train from Mexico for
Mexico. This is the government's objective and that is why both the train line and the
42 trains that will operate on it have been designed and built in the country itself.
"We are building the Mayan Train, 1550 km, and the trains are being built here, in Ciudad Sahagún,
Hidalgo, to provide jobs for Mexicans". Andrés Manuel López
ObradorActually, they were built by the French company Alstom. [So, I don't know,
it would be better to say that it is a train sort of from Mexico for Mexico, don't you think?]
But, whatever the case, that's just a small curiosity.
The important thing is that the government expects this train to be used by more than
8,000 travelers per day, more than 3 million passengers each year. Okay, that's not a very
high figure, but this rail line will not only carry passengers but also freight. And perhaps
this is one of the big key factors. In fact, if we review the project
and the arguments of those who have promoted it, we can find 3 key points,
the 3 major arguments, the 3 major changes that this new train is expected to produce.
Firstly, tourism is very important for Mexico and is expected to become much
more so in the coming years. Both in terms of domestic and international tourism. Well,
with the arrival of this new railroad, the government expects that the southeastern states
will have a much more attractive tourist offer and that this will boost the economy and help
create hundreds of thousands of jobs over time. So basically it’s hoped that this train will set
in motion something of a Mexican railroad gold rush. In fact, government estimates
speak of no fewer than one million jobs. "Around 10 million tourists come to Cancun,
but they only come to enjoy the beaches, the Caribbean Sea, and do not go to the southeastern
states. Where there is this extraordinary, cultural richness. The archaeological zones of
this region are the most beautiful archaeological zones in the world"But that is not all. Secondly,
AMLO argues that this work is essentially a historical
reparation. You see,
traditionally most of Mexico's wealth has been concentrated in the capital
city and in the northern states, which are logically the closest to the United States.
This has meant that the infrastructure in the south is typically underfunded.
Under this bonus, the aim of the Mayan Train would be to correct this historical
deficiency and allow many more businesses and companies to emerge in this region where more
than 13 million people live. ("This is an act of justice,
because this region has been the most abandoned" – Andrés Manuel López Obrador)
Which brings us directly to the third argument supporting this project: commodities.
Freight train, this is very important! Because now a lot of merchandise is moved by trucks and
it costs a lot to transport cargo. Costs are cheaper to transport cargo by train
The Tren Maya has been sold as a great tourist attraction, but in reality it is, first and
foremost, a freight train. This is the part that is expected to really make money for the project.
However, when we talk about goods, we are mainly talking about PEMEX,
the large state-owned oil company that accounts for 80% of all cargo moved in the region. In
other words, PEMEX and not tourism will be the main client of this project.
So then, where does the controversy arise? I don't know, in theory the advantages
seem pretty clear, don't you think? Boosting tourism, overcoming a historic
infrastructure gap and the possibility that some of Mexico's poorest states will now have
a backbone for freight transportation, which, of course, could encourage
many companies to relocate to the region. Well, VisualPolitik viewers, if we have seen
three great positives, we can also find three more great disadvantages. Three major criticisms that
are made of this mammoth project. And guess what? Right with the goods we came across the first one:
You see, the problem is that the Yucatan peninsula is not very industrialized and,
in addition, the Tren Maya is not – at least for now – connected to the rest of the network.
In other words, it will basically depend on one customer (PEMEX) and on the return trips,
once the goods are delivered, the rail cars and containers may have to be practically empty.
This would raise the price of transportation considerably and make it less competitive.
However, by far the most significant criticisms are the following two.
For example, do you remember that the cost of the work has already gone up to 20 billion? Well,
keep in mind that the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness points out that this
figure is very likely to be too low. They are pointing at more than 25 billion.
In fact, many critics argue that this enormous amount of money is being spent
to promote tourism in a region where tourism is already booming. We are
talking about such well-known places as Cancun, Puerto del Carmen and the
Riviera Maya. In this way there are many economists, politicians and experts who
point out that investing all this money in other more local infrastructure, in digital
infrastructure or in educational facilities could give better results in the long run.
And not only that. The Mexican State closes its accounts in the red every year. In 2022,
for example, they had a deficit of close to 4% of GDP and in 2023 they are expected to close
with 3.6%. This means that the train will have to be financed with debt. And what is
the problem with that? The Mexican government is issuing its 10-year debt at rates of around 8%.
This means that if, in the end, the cost of the project was in fact 20 billion dollars, the
Mexican State, devaluations aside, could end up having to pay more than 1.6 billion dollars
each year in interest alone. Naturally on top of that there would be the operating
costs. And all these factors together is what explains headlines like this one:
(The Mayan Train will never make a profit and will always need government subsidies: PAN. – InfoBae)
Of course, supporters of the project are confident that freight will make
the train profitable. And in any case, they are betting that the economic activity generated in
the region could far outweigh any concrete losses. For example, we are talking about
the one million new jobs predicted by the government. Will this be possible?
Only time will tell. For now, if one thing is clear, it is that the numbers are ambitious.
Be that as it may, we have yet to see the last major criticism. A criticism that has nothing to
do with money, but with something else entirely: (4 Feb 2023:Worries abound that Mexico's Maya
Train will destroy jungle. – AP News) The Mayan Train crosses and connects
incredible places. We are talking, for instance,
about the second largest Mayan jungle in the Americas, second only to the Amazon, which is
inhabited by endangered species such as jaguars and the Central American tapir, among others.
Well, one third of the entire route will pass through these tropical forests.
For more than 120 kilometers, the Tren Maya will even pass through the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve,
one of the largest protected natural areas in all of Mexico and one of the most important
Mayan archaeological sites. A place that is considered a World Heritage Site by UNESCO.
The indigenous population does not seem to be enthusiastic either. Among other reasons,
perhaps because more than 2,000 families have been displaced.
("This project is not planned for us, the common people [...] It is a tourism
project that will only benefit the rich and foreigners. We, who are the owners of the land,
will only see it go by, because there are no planned resorts for the majority
of our communities" – Open Letter from the Indigenous Communities of the Yucatan in 2018)
Well, VisualPolitik viewers, these are the three great positives and the three great negatives
of one of the largest infrastructure projects of recent decades in Mexico.
In any case, if one thing seems clear, it is not only that the Tren Maya is clearly here to stay,
but also that it has the opportunity to be a turning point for one of the poorest regions of
Mexico. Of course, we have already seen that there are some drawbacks. Mitigating those problems will
have to be the goal of the Mexican government over the next few years. Only time will tell.
Having said that, the questions are now over to you: What do you think of the Tren Maya?
What impression do you have of this plan? Leave us your thoughts in the comments.
We hope you liked this first video between VisualPolitik and Harvard
International Review as much as we did. If so, don't forget to like it.
Thank you very much for watching, All the best and see you next time.