Angela Vorpahl: Hey guys, and welcome back to my channel.
I've been getting a lot of questions about the legal job market in 2019, 2020.
People who are wondering if they should enroll in law school, people who are in law school
wondering if they'll be able to get a job when they graduate, and people who are already
working, to see if they will be able to lateral over to a new position.
Especially now, where there's talk of a potential 2020 recession, there is a lot of outsourcing
by law firms to ALSPs, or alternative legal service providers, and a lot of corporations
are bringing in-house matters that they would otherwise have outsourced to law firms.
So there's a lot of change going on, and what does this all mean for the current and future
legal markets?
Well, if you're excited and interested to find out, go ahead and hit that like button
and let's get started.
Angela Vorpahl: The first thing you have to know is how many jobs are out there, what
is the growth of the legal market?
Just to put things into perspective, back when the 2008 recession happened, or I guess
I should say before the 2008 recession happened, law firms were growing at multiples of the
U.S. GDP, so multiples of the growth of the larger U.S. economy.
That's what, well, at least what we refer to it as the golden era.
You had law firms making a ton of money, you had law firms as a result hiring a bunch of
associates, and those were the days of the crazy, insane summer clerkships where you
would have these elaborate dinners and lunches and events, and even international travel.
Angela Vorpahl: Since that hit, of course the legal market took a plunge just like most
markets did, and the legal market has been growing ever since then, year after year,
just at a much smaller rate.
Instead of multiples of GDP, it's been tracking the U.S. GDP, which is about a growth of 1
to 3% a year, which is about the same as most occupations.
So that's a good thing.
But an even better thing is what we've seen in 2018.
There's been a big growth in 2018, law firm revenue is up, hiring is up.
Based on the latest statistics we have, the job market and the legal market are very strong
right now.
Angela Vorpahl: The next thing you need to know is how many people are competing for
the jobs that are out there?
In order to know this, you have to look at the enrollment statistics for law schools.
Historically, over the last 40 or so years, the average number of law students per year
enrolling in law school is around 40,000.
Right now we're at a bit of an uptick from the previous year.
In 2017 there were about 38,000 new enrollees and in 2018 there are about 39,000 new enrollees.
It's a bit of an uptick, but still within the historical average.
Angela Vorpahl: Then of course the most important question, are there more lawyers than there
are legal jobs available?
One of the most insightful data points, the most helpful data points for this are the
employment statistics for graduates coming out of law school.
The ABA actually requires all 201 law schools to publish this information.
Just as an aside, that definition of employed is full-time, longterm employment in a job
that requires a JD or bar passage within 10 months of graduating.
Angela Vorpahl: The good news is that the graduating class of 2018, which is the latest
data available, has entered into these strongest legal job market in a decade, with 78.6% of
the graduating law students finding full-time JD jobs within 10 months of graduating.
Angela Vorpahl: The just be careful news is that there was an uptick in legal job growth
in 2018, so there were more jobs available.
There was also a bit of a dip in law school enrollment in 2015 when these recent graduates
would have started law school, so there was a little bit less competition.
The other thing to keep in mind is that law school graduation and employment statistics
do vary widely by law school.
So I'm going to link below a list of 201 law school employment graduation statistics so
you guys can compare and contrast either the law school where you currently are or the
law school you might be considering applying to, so that you can see how the statistics
match up against one another.
Angela Vorpahl: The last thing I want to leave you guys with is this idea of a potential
possible economic recession in 2020, because I've been asked a lot about it.
I'm not an economist.
I don't know if it's going to happen.
I know there are varying opinions about the likelihood of it happening, but I do want
to tell you guys this, and that is that when I started law school in August of 2008, it
was right before the huge recession hit.
So the class above me, the 2Ls, in August and September were interviewing with law firms.
They were doing OCI, they were doing callbacks.
So the law firms were still in this golden age of the law firm era where they were hiring
huge summer classes.
We're talking 50, 75, a hundred kids in a summer associate class.
Angela Vorpahl: What wound up happening is that when that recession hit in September
and October and then fast forward to the summer, law firms realized there was no way they could
sustain that many new people.
So there were huge no-offer rates, which meant that the summer associates were not getting
permanent offers to come back and work for that firm when they graduated, which was unheard
of up until that point.
What wound up happening was that when we, our class, started OCI and callbacks, it was
August 2009 and the law firms knew that they couldn't have summer associate classes that
size.
So the law firms were hiring 10 to 12 new associates, or hiring one to two to three,
or some were hiring none at all.
Angela Vorpahl: But what wound up happening is that people at the top of the class were
still able to find big law law firm summer associate clerkships, and people who worked
hard and did well upon graduation were still able to find good jobs.
So I hope it gives you a little bit more peace of mind in terms of the potential legal job
market you'll be facing when you graduate.
Angela Vorpahl: Thank you guys so much for watching.
Make sure you check out the description below.
It's chalk full of resources, including all the links I mentioned in this video, guides
to legal interviewing and legal writing, and a link to join the Law Tribe Network Facebook
group where you can connect with people just like you, looking to build sustainable and
fulfilling legal careers.
Angela Vorpahl: I hope you guys check out all those great resources, and I will see
you in the next one.
Have a great week.
Bye.