10 Hypothetical New Countries of the Near Future
10.
Independent Scotland
In 2014, Scottish voters came within a hair’s breadth of choosing to split Scotland from
the UK, creating a new state.
Although over 55% of Scots ultimately elected to stay within the union, the forces of nationalism
had been unleashed.
In the 2015 UK general election, the Scottish National Party (SNP) took nearly every seat
in Scotland, becoming the 3rd largest party in the union.
Ever since, the threat of a second referendum has loomed large.
The biggest trigger for Scottish independence is the UK’s recent vote to leave the EU.
Since Britain decided to quit, and given Scotland’s desire to stay in the EU, the SNP have promised
another referendum within two years.
This makes Scotland the most likely new country of the next decade.
9.
Independent London
Scotland isn’t the only part of the UK analysts think might have a chance of splitting in
the future.
Welcome to London, the UK capital and one of the most dynamic cities on Earth.
With a population of over eight million (more than Norway or Denmark) and a land area far
in excess of city-states like Singapore, London is already culturally and economically detached
from the nation around it.
Nearly 40% of residents are immigrants.
Arts and culture are anchored here.
The city provides nearly a quarter of the UK’s entire GDP.
Likely, the nation of London would be like Singapore with a social conscience – a powerful
financial center dominated by left-ish politics.
8.
Kurdistan
The aftermath of WWI saw plenty of winners and losers.
Some of the biggest losers of all were the Kurds.
An ethnic group from the Middle East, they found their homeland split between Iraq, Syria,
and Turkey.
Since then, they’ve been fighting for an independent Kurdish state, leading to a civil
war in Turkey and attempted genocide against the Kurds in Iraq.
Until recently, it looked like the Kurdish struggle was doomed to never end.
Then came the Syrian civil war and the rise of ISIS.
With Kurds acting as the US’s greatest allies in the region, many are now talking openly
of Kurdish statehood.
Kurdish forces have seized territory ISIS took from Iraq and refused to hand it back
to the Iraqis.
Large swathes of Syria are under Kurdish control.
The leader of Iraqi Kurdistan has said world leaders need to accept his people are building
a state.
7.
Catalonia
Catalonia is Spain’s answer to Scotland and London, all rolled into one restive province.
Home to Barcelona, and the economic engine of Spain, Catalonia is diverse, wealthy, and
in possession of its own distinct language (Catalan).
It’s also fiercely independent: in 2014, a non-binding referendum had over 80% of Catalans
vote to split from Spain.
After Scotland, Catalonia is probably the most likely new state to emerge in the next
few years.
The region has set out its own ambitious plan for independence, which could see it break
from Spain as early as 2017.
While many think this is an unrealistic date, the chances of an eventual split are astronomically
high.
6.
Somaliland
Somaliland is already a state.
One of three entities making up modern day Somalia, it declared independence from Somalia
way, way back in 1991.
In the 25 years since, it has run free elections, kept at peace, created state infrastructure
(including its own currency), and developed economically, even as Somalia disintegrated.
Yet to date, not a single country has ever recognized its existence.
Despite this, Somaliland has a strong claim to statehood.
It does business with the US, EU, UN and Arab League.
It was an independent state once before: in 1960, it spent five days as a nation before
voluntarily entering into a union with Italian Somaliland.
5.
The United States of Europe
The treaty that created the modern EU called for an ‘ever closer union.’
For many on the continent, this has been interpreted to mean building ‘a United States of Europe’
with a common government, army, and currency.
Although the financial crisis, Greek recession, and refugee crisis have temporarily made such
plans unpopular, the project is still on track.
With nationalism currently on the rise in Europe, the idea of an EU superstate has been
placed on the back burner.
Given how entwined many of mainland Europe’s economies now are, sensible money would be
on the ascension of the EU to full-blown nationhood before 2030.
4.
The Shetlands and Orkney
With a combined population of less than 70,000, the far-flung Scottish islands of The Shetlands,
Orkney, and the Outer Hebrides might seem like the last places on Earth to agitate for
statehood.
But with the threat of Scotland seceding from the UK, plans have been drawn up to potentially
create three new microstates, or one federated collection of island states.
In the event that Scotland held a second referendum and broke with the UK, though, Edinburgh would
likely lay claim to the islands.
At that point, leaders on the Shetlands, Orkney, and Outer Hebrides have indicated they might
go fully independent.
3.
Unified Korea
One is a hyper-capitalist tech-utopia with some of the highest living standards in Asia.
The other is an impoverished wasteland ruled by a paranoid dictator with a penchant for
illegally detonating nuclear bombs.
The idea that South Korea might one day reunify with North Korea seems like a pie-in-the-sky
fantasy.
Yet it may not be unlikely as you think.
Reunification is official government policy in both North and South Korea.
The costs of reunification would be enormous.
West Germany took a massive hit in 1990 when it absorbed East Germany, and is still paying
for reunification today.
South Korea would immediately have to shell out $1 trillion just to stop a reunified Korea
from instantly collapsing.
Yet the incentives are still there.
The Economist has calculated mining the North’s rare minerals could give South Korea a $12
trillion return over the long term.
2.
Vojvodina and Republika Srpska
The disintegration of Yugoslavia was one of the most complex break ups of a state in history.
Over the course of four bruising wars and one insurrection, the former republic split
into seven different states.
Yet the slow death of Yugoslavia may not be over.
There are at least two candidates left for independence: Vjvodina in Serbia, and Republika
Srpska in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Of these, the Republika Srpska is the more likely to become a state, and also the more
likely to spark another Balkan War.
At the conclusion of the Bosnian War, Bosnia was divided into Muslim and Croat Bosnia-Herzegovina,
and Serb Republika Srpska.
Both parts of the nation fundamentally distrust one another.
In December 2015, the Republika’s nationalist Serb leader, called for independence.
A referendum is due to take place in 2018.
Less explosive, Vjvodina in Serbia has been agitating for independence since 2009.
While no referendums have been called, events could yet put a fire under Vjvodina’s autonomous
government.
It’s entirely possible we’ll see the number of former Yugoslavia countries rise to nine
by 2026.
1.
East and West Libya
Libya is in a state of chaos.
Ever since Gaddafi was overthrown, the country has veered between extreme visions of what
it should be.
Militias seized control of large areas.
ISIS took over swathes of central territory.
Multiple self-declared governments emerged, each claiming to be the legitimate one.
Amid all this chaos, East and West Libya have begun to pull apart from one another.
Right now, it looks extremely likely that they will split into separate states.
In Tripoli, a UN-backed government has managed to take control of much of the West.
In Tobruk, a government loyal to renegade General Khalifa Haftar has got most of the
East under control.
Both governments claim to speak for Libya.