UPCOMING WORLD WAR III UNLESS
COUNTRIES STOP SENDING WEAPONS
TO UKRAINE.
JOINING US NOW IS THE YOU’RE EUR
GROUP PRESIDENT, IAN BREMMER IS
HERE.
GREAT TO SEE YOU.
THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE THIS
MORNING.
WE’LL GET TO YOUR BOOK IN A
MOMENT.
FIRST, LET’S TALK ABOUT THE
CONFLICT, RUSSIA HAS BEEN
DOMINATING THE CONVERSATION AT
THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM.
I KNOW THAT.
YOU PARTICIPATE INNED A PANEL ON
MONDAY CALLED RUSSIA, WHAT NEXT.
ARE YOU HAPPY OR PLEASED WITH
THE WAY THE WEST HAS RESPONDED
TO VLADIMIR PUTIN’S DEATH AND
DESTRUCTION?
>> WELL, IT’S CERTAINLY TRUE
THAT THERE’S A LOT MORE BEING
DONE AGAINST RUSSIA’S INVASION
INTO UKRAINE THAN ANY OBSERVERS
WOULD HAVE PREDICTED AND THAT
PUTIN WOULD HAVE EXPECTED AND
IT’S NOT JUST ABOUT THE
SANCTIONS AND THE FREEZING OF
RUSSIAN ASSETS, ABOUT THE
SHARING OF INTELLIGENCE WITH
UKRAINE AND IT’S ALSO OF COURSE
ABOUT A VERY SIGNIFICANT, BOTH
HUMANITARIAN AND MILITARY AID
PACKAGE.
THE REASON THE UKRAINIAN
GOVERNMENT IS IN PLACE AND MANY
OF THE MINISTERS AND MEMBERS OF
PARLIAMENT I MET WITH IN DAVOS
IS BECAUSE UKRAINIANS ARE
FIGHTING SO COURAGEOUSLY BUT
THERE’S NO QUESTION THE SUPPORT
PROVIDED BY THE WEST IS A
MEANINGFUL COMPONENT OF THAT AND
THE UNITED STATES I’M PROUD TO
SAY HAS BEEN LEADING THE
COALITION.
I THINK THAT’S A BIG DEAL,
MARIA.
MARIA: FOR SO MANY YEARS WE’VE
BEEN TALKING ABOUT GROWTH, WHERE
WITH IS THE GROWTH IN THE WORLD.
YOU SAID THE LAST 50 YEARS OF
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
DEFINED BY GLOBALIZATION AND
YOU’RE RIGHT.
BECAUSE COMPANIES HAVE BEEN
LOOKING ALL AROUND THE WORLD FOR
GROWTH.
BUT NOW WE’RE TALKING ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL OF A DECOUPLING.
DID YOU HEAR LARRY FINK A COUPLE
WEEKS AGO SAY GLOBALIZATION IS
DEAD.
TELL ME ABOUT THE THREE
DECOUPLINGS YOU SAY ARE
IMPORTANT FRACTURES IN THE
GLOBAL MARKETPLACE.
>> I KNOW LARRY WELL.
WE SPAR A LOT.
I HAVE A LOT OF RESPECT FOR HIM
HAD.
I DON’T THINK GLOBALIZATION IS
CLOSE TO DEAD.
I THINK THERE ARE VERY FEW CEOS
OR FINANCIAL TITANS WHO WOULD
AGREE WITH THAT SENTIMENT.
THERE IS DECOUPLING GOING ON.
IT’S NOT ONE DECOUPLING AS THERE
WAS ONE GLOBALIZATION A.
IT’S THREE DIFFERENT
DECOUPLINGS.
ONE, YOUR RUSSIA IS FORCIBLY
DECOUPLED FROM THE UNITED STATES
AND ADVANCED INDUSTRIAL
ECONOMIES, NO, NOT JUST THE UNIT
STATES BUT ALSO EUROPE THAT WAS
GETTING ANEN NOR MUSES AMOUNT OF
ENERGY FROM -- ENORMOUS AMOUNT
OF ENERGY FROM RUSSIA.
THAT’S GOING TO GO AWAY.
THERE’S DECUPCOUPLING WITH THE
UNITED STATES AND CHINA.
THERE’S A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF
INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN THE
COUNTRIES THAT WON’T CHANGE ANY
TIME SOON.
THIRDLY, THE GRASS ROOTS
DECOUPLING THAT’S OCCURRING
BECAUSE OF EVERYBODY’S AMERICA
FIRST, INDIA FIRST, BRAZIL FIRST
MANY IT’S THE REASON YOU SEE THE
INDIANS WHEN THEY SEE PRICES GO
UP SAY WE’RE NOT GOING TO EXPORT
WHEAT, INDONESIANS DO THE SAME
THING ON PALM OIL.
THAT IS SIGNIFICANT BUT IT’S NOT
AN END OF GLOBALIZATION A.
IT’S MORE OF A TAX ON GLOBAL
INVESTMENT, IT’S LESS EFFICIENT.
ALL THREE THINGS ADDED UP ARE
MEANINGFUL.
IT’S A CHANGE IN THE TRAJECTORY
OF GLOBALIZATION BUT IT’S
ABSOLUTELY NOT THE END.
GOODS, SERVICES, PEOPLE AND DATA
ARE GOING TO BE MOVING FASTER
AND FASTER ACROSS GLOBAL BORDERS
OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS.
IF IT WAS THE END OF
GLOBALIZATION, THAT WOULD NOT BE
TRUE.
MARIA: YOU’RE FAULKING ABOUT
THIS IN YOUR -- TALKING ABOUT
THIS IN YOUR NEW BOOK, THE POWER
OF CRISISES, HOW AT THE TIME THR
RESPONSE WILL CHANGE THE WORLD.
YOU’RE ARGUING WE’RE UNPREPARED
FOR THE LOOMING CRISES.
LOOK AT THE MARKETS.
A LOT OF PEOPLE FEEL THAT THE
U.S. IS THE SAFEST RIGHT NOW AND
YET THIS MARKET IS DOWN 30% ON
THE NASDAQ YEAR-TO-DATE BECAUSE
OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND ITS
EXPERIMENT IN TERMS OF TAKING
RATES UP AND NOT TAKING THE U.S.
INTO A RECESSION.
WE’RE NEAR THE LOWS OF THE
MORNING AGAIN THIS MORNING.
DOWN 162 ON THE DOW INDUSTRIALS,
RATES AT 2.726 ON THE 10 YEAR,
IAN.
HOW DO YOU SEE THE ISSUES AROUND
MARKETS AND BUSINESS IN THE
U.S.?
>> WELL, I FIRST OF ALL SAY THAT
MARKETS RIGHT NOW IN THE US, THE
DOW IS CLOSE TO WHERE IT WAS
BEFORE THE PANDEMIC HIT SO ON
BALANCE, YOU HAD A MASSIVE RUNUP
BUT IF I TAKE A LONGER TERM VIEW
I’M NOT FEELING HORRIBLE AS AN
AMERICAN INVESTOR RIGHT NOW.
I’M FEELING A LITTLE MORE
CHALLENGED AS AN AMERICAN
CITIZEN BECAUSE THE UNITED
STATES IS SO DIVIDED AND
DIVISIVE.
LET’S BE CLEAR.
YOU STARTED BY ASKING ABOUT
RUSSIA.
THAT’S A CRISIS THAT HAS CREATED
A RESPONSE TO STRENGTHEN
INSTITUTIONS.
YOU KNOW WHAT THAT NANCY PELOSI
LED A DELEGATION TO KYIV A FEW
WEEKS AGO.
A WEEK LATER MITCH McCONNELL
LED A DELEGATION TO KYIV.
THE SPEAKING POINTS THEY BOTH
GAVE ON UKRAINE AND RUSSIA WERE
VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL.
I THINK DEMOCRATS AND
REPUBLICANS ACTUALLY HATE PUTIN
MORE THAN THEY HATE EACH OTHER.
THREE MONTHS AGO YOU COULDN’T
SAY THAT.
IS THE UNITED STATES A LITTLE
MORE FUNCTIONAL AS A
CONSEQUENCE, $40 BILLION WILL
TELL YOU THAT.
ARE THE UKRAINETHE UKRAINIAN GOV
TELL YOU THAT.
IS NATO STRONGER.
IS GERM ANY GERMANY DOING MORE?
WE CAN THANK PUTIN.
HE DID NOT READ MY BOOK.
I PROMISE YOU THAT, MARIA.
MARIA: IT’S GOOD TO SEE YOU.