Sudan is a border region cobbled together across the fundamental
boundaries between the Middle East and Africa, and also between Islam and Christianity.
The southern part of Sudan is now South Sudan. The period starting about
1956 right up to the present time has been one of almost continuous civil wars
and frequent coups. There were also issues over how to distribute oil revenue
between the southern parts of the country that produced the oil and the
north, which controlled the government. The movement for South Sudanese autonomy or
even independence continued to gain traction. The so-called
Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005 laid out a whole series of reforms. Then there could be a
referendum in 2011 in which the South Sudanese could vote either to remain
part of a reformed Sudan, or vote for independence. The Khartoum government
instituted virtually none of the reforms, and to no one's great surprise
South Sudan voted overwhelmingly for independence.
South Sudan is one of the least developed parts of the world.
Infrastructure is almost entirely nonexistent. The quality of the soil is
not particularly good and the rainfall is erratic. The conflict in South Sudan
is about personal rivalry in an ethnic context—a personal rivalry which is
proving to be breathtakingly expensive for the people of South Sudan.
The president, Salva Kiir, comes from one ethnic group. Machar comes from the other.
The conflict is made worse by deteriorating economic circumstances. Also the
government in Khartoum continues from time to time to make forays across the border.
The interests of the United States in South Sudan are overwhelmingly
humanitarian. But there is also a political dimension.
Huge numbers of people are internally displaced. Huge numbers of people have
died needlessly. But it goes a little bit further than that. The United States was
one of the godfathers of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.
South Sudan has received significant amounts of American assistance. The successive
administrations in Washington have been diplomatically involved at a very high level.
When you are talking about humanitarian intervention in one of the poorest
countries in the world, with no infrastructure, you have to be concerned
about the capacity of those doing the intervening.
Deciding whether or not to conduct a humanitarian intervention is not easy.
You're gonna have to think about whether it will be unilateral or multilateral,
how hard is this going to be, how far away is it. This is just basic military logistics.
Once you get on the ground and you realize this isn't exactly the problem
that I thought it was, sometimes things can evolve. People often call that mission creep.
But on the other hand, it's also adapting to the changing circumstances. And so you
have to weigh these problems, the risks and the costs, and you have to do it quickly.
We have to remember history. We are talking about a polity which had been at
war with itself, in one form or another, by now, for more than fifty years.