It was one of the most controversial and perhaps consequential visits
to Taiwan in decades. The speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, has
now left a self governing island. But the fallout remains to be seen.
Nick Schifrin looks at her trip and what comes next.
Ladies and gentlemen in Taipei's Presidential office building today,
the second in line to the US presidency, received Taiwan's highest
civilian honor and presented US support as part of a global struggle.
Today, the world faces a choice between democracy and autocracy.
America's determination to preserve democracy here in Taiwan and
around the world remains ironclad.
Speaker of the House. Nancy Pelosi's trip lasted 19 hours, She led
a congressional delegation to meet president saying. Win Thank you
so much for your presence. Taiwanese lawmakers in a speech broadcast
on local TV and visited the National Human Rights Museum, which acknowledges
Taiwan's past history of martial law.
He also met with famous pro democracy advocates who have been jailed
by Beijing and who helped lead the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests.
Chinese police abruptly halted Attainment square ceremony by three
members of the U. S congress today. Her trip culminates more than
three decades of criticizing Chinese human rights from Tenement Square
massacre was shocking to us as it was to everyone in the world.
Tibet situation in Tibet has challenged the conscience of the world
and Xinjiang. This genocide must end now. China considers Taiwan
a breakaway province and Pelosi's trip a threat to its sovereignty.
What Pelosi has done is by no means of defense of democracy, but
a violation of China's territorial integrity. The relevant measures
will be strong and showdown.
It was measures so far Chinese naval drills in the Taiwan Strait
and today fighter jets crossed the median line that splits the strait,
which is just 80 miles wide. At its most narrow Beijing vows now
to hold military exercises in six areas around the island, including
inside territorial Taiwanese waters, the largest drill since 1995
Taiwan calls that reckless. Sure, China's announcement on its drills
is equal to sea and air blockades. It has severely infringed our
country's territorial sovereignty and to discuss Speaker Pelosi's
trip. I'm joined by Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program at
the German Marshall Fund. Think tank. And you in son director of
the China Program at the Stimson Center, a foreign policy institute
here in Washington. D C. Welcome to both of you to the new Zahra.
Bonnie Glaser. Let me start with you.
Should Speaker Pelosi have gone to Taiwan? Well, I think that Speaker
Pelosi should have gone to Taiwan and another time. I really do think
that it's the timing of this visit that makes it particularly sensitive
and dangerous. Even
The Chinese certainly viewed the timing of the visit, I think is
provocative. The problem is this is in the run up to the 20th party
Congress. It's right a day or two after the PLA anniversary and the
leadership meetings that are coming up in big data that take place
every summer, and I think that there was pressure on C. Jinping to
demonstrate very strong results to warn the United States and Taiwan
to not go further down the path of threatening Chinese interests.
Do you agree that
The upcoming party Congress later this year.
Almost forces She Jinping to escalate
fuses the argument of coming most become you made from both ways
that the fact that the party congress is coming up could be a factor
that put pressure on jumping to act. But at the same time, you could
also argue that because party Congresses so close is only three months
later, she didn't pings pop priority is domestic and his priority
is stability and therefore he is not going to take forceful act in
terms of the military response.
So I feel that this party Congress is really a factor as I could
be argued on both sides. Glazer. What is Beijing seem
So upset about this trip, as you say in the timing of it, but also
what President Biden has been saying You referred to US policy he
has referred in the last year three times to the possibility that
the US would support Taiwan militarily Well, actually, I think that
the president has the prerogative to say that he would come to Taiwan's
defense, and he believes that that would strengthen deterrence. And,
yes, he has said that three times.
What is more problematic from my perspective is that the president
has repeatedly said, We have a commitment to do. So. He is, of course,
referring to the Taiwan Relations Act from 1979, which does have
some obligations of that The United States has particularly supplying
weapons to Taiwan. But the United States and its since 1979 when
we broke our mutual defense Treaty with Taiwan does not have a commitment
to come to Taiwan's defense.
So I think that that, in particular has been confusing and probably
in China has been interpreted with some concern.
And what has not been confusing. This week is Beijing's anger and
some of the live fire drills and some of the training exercises that
Beijing has launched just in the last few days in response to Speaker
Pelosi's visit, But do you believe there? Do you see those as particularly
aggressive? Actually? No. Actually, I see beatings. Response has
been underwhelming, especially if you put it in the context of what
the Chinese threats have been before The Pelosi visit to Taiwan,
the Chinese restaurant
No flies on this threatening missile exercises. This threatened a
forced Taiwan Strait crisis. If Speaker of the House Pelosi was going
to visit Taiwan, But we also know that none of those particularly
provoke tiv, or react, more aggressive military actions were taken
before she landed in Taiwan. Now that she is gone, she is out of
Taiwan and the Chinese are putting on live fire military exercises
there, also announcing sanctions on Taiwanese products. They also
have
Announced that the band the band of export on natural sent to to
Taiwan.
So which means to me that the Chinese reaction to the Pelosi's visit
has been primarily focused on punishing Taiwan rather than reacting
to the United States. Bonnie Glaser has the response been underwhelming,
as you just said, Well, I do disagree, particularly if you look at
the declared closure zones, which is where China is going to fire
missiles.
They are very close to Taiwan, and in some cases, they overlap with
Taiwan's territorial sea and airspace That's within 12, nautical
miles of the island. So we will find out when these live missile
exercises begin, which is on Thursday, But it looks like the Chinese
plan to fire missiles in Taiwan's airspace and perhaps actually fly
aircraft in that airspace. The tabloid Global Times, which not authoritative
but
Sometimes it's correct, has said that China will fly its aircraft
over Taiwan. Any of those things would be extremely provocative.
What I'd like to highlight is that these closure zones are close
to Taiwan's ports. They are close to its international airport. This
is very clearly a signal of capability to blockade Taiwan, so that
is dangerous and provocative and escalatory, son, how dangerous are
the next few days? I think it could get out of hand because the Chinese
in fact,
They're trying to gauge how Taiwan is going to react to these.
Series of military activities planned by China and the weather. More
importantly, for the Chinese, whether the United States will come
to Taiwan support or Taiwan's rescued in terms of the Chinese planned
military exercises and quickly Bonnie Glaser the longer term impact
of Speaker Pelosi's trip, not only in Beijing and Taipei but also
here tracking the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, considering
the Taiwan Policy Act, which would dramatically increase U. S military
support to Taiwan. Yes, I think there is bipartisan support.
In Congress for increasing military support.
Perhaps providing foreign military financing for for Taiwan, so actual
resources and selling more offense of weapons going forward. Maybe
even designating Taiwan is a non NATO ally. All of those provisions
are in the Taiwan Policy Act. We do not know whether it will pass,
but it is indicative of the growing sense of urgency in the United
States in Congress. Also, I believe in the executive branch that
the United States has to do more to help Taiwan defend itself.
Quickly. Just in the time we have a growing sense of urgency in a
bipartisan way in Washington, that is quite obvious for the Chinese
as well. Does he understand that US support for Taiwan is only going
to become stronger as time passes by, But the question for Beijing
is that should they take actions now, if they know that the future
is only going to be more difficult for China to achieve as unification
agenda, and there is a voice asking for it.
But the cultural argument is that while China takes action now can
China really succeed? And I think that's where the Chinese military
because more reluctant to provide a straight answer, So yes, indeed,
The situation is extremely dangerous. And when we look down the road
is probably will get even more in more tense as this interactions
continue, son, Bonnie Glaser, Thanks very much to you both.