Let's start off with your conversations with shale producers in particular. You did say that shale producers won't be able to
fill the gap. The ALP will be far below what's needed. Let's talk about spare capacity of shale producers can't make up the
supply whether it's from simply the pandemic or from the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Can't OPEC provide that
spare capacity is not what is therefore. Thank you very much. The shale producers
in the United States whom we have established an excellent working relationship
in the last five years have participated actively in meeting demand for oil at the time
of the shale revolution. If you recall several of our member countries had difficulties
producing optimally and the shale revolution was very timely to save the world from imminent global energy crisis. So from day
one we saw them as partners and we reach out to them and we establish this dialogue that we avoid
unwieldy. And yesterday I met with them and of course the issue of
capacity was top of our agenda.
I am told that their plan in terms of growth numbers for this year is in the region of about Emily Chang. And we are also
aware that some of them had changed their models. Interest is known by several of them has been on how to pay but
investors rather than reinvesting to increase capacity. But in the current circumstances and the crisis that the world
is facing the issue of investment in this industry has to be raised to the highest level
of priority. Sorry to interrupt. Let me ask about the OPEC's spare capacity. In particular your last meeting only lasted 13
minutes. Is there a reason that the Russian invasion of Ukraine wasn't discussed in addition to perhaps including or tapping
into that spare capacity. I want to correct that assertion. For more than a no
we have decided consciously to be meeting at the ministerial level every single month.
And in between this monthly meetings our technical teams continue to walk around the clock because of the uncertainties
coming out of this pandemic and the fragility of the recovery globally.
So it is not
warfare to put any importance on how long our meetings lasted or not. I want to assure you and your viewers that often together
with our partners in the not if we continue to work together. We continue to take decisions together. We continue to implement
them and even monitor the implementation. In office we are working day in day out
in regular consultations with all our member countries on the issues of the moment.
And we intend to continue in this fashion.
The crisis we are facing requires all stakeholders to rally round to offer solutions. It's a shared responsibility.
It is not just for. When will you increase production more than the scheduled
output. And what will it take to make that decision. What are you looking for.
We had decided last year in July that it was time for us to bring back to the market 5 1 8 million barrels a day.
As the last tranche of the nine point seven million barrels that we withdrew from the market at the height of the pandemic in
April it off 20 20. And we took a conscious decision to every month bring about 400000 barrels a day. And we are continuing
including during the last medium. But it is also not he is not or our member countries are able to fulfil their obligations
even their monthly obligations because of capacity constraints. Again we go back to. They must have under-investment under
investments is not only in the United States or in Europe is globally it's a global challenge that requires a
global solution. And we will continue to meet to do whatever we can
to contribute our own quota in mitigating this catastrophe that is facing the global energy industry. Are you
still in conversations with the Russian energy minister Alexander Novak. How are those conversations going. Can you shed
any light on those negotiations. Yes I have been in contact with Mr. Alexander over
the record of hostilities on the 24th of February. I have placed a call to him and we have discussed
the situation as at the time. And he assured me that he will continue to cooperate with OPIC
will continue to participate in the OPIC non OPIC Declaration of Cooperation.
So that was unfortunate. We had the Occidental CEO on earlier. She said prices can go as
high as one hundred and fifty dollars a barrel. Do you agree with that. How high do you think prices can go. When I see you
know in OPIC we are you know fixated on the supply demand balances and stock
levels. We do not follow prices. I
had dinner with Vicki and I know her views. Oui oui oui. There is a common
discussion here on where prices are heading to a certain result of this perceived shortage in the market.
But I can tell you I said this morning there is no physical shortage of oil
but there is a very strong perception in the market because of the volume that is at stake. The Russian Federation is the
second largest exporter of hydrocarbons in the world. Second only to the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Therefore you can
understand the anxiety of the market. Why this volumes 7 to 8 million barrels of exports the incumbent because of the
sanctions. This is a matter of perception and projections. But physically
there is no shortage of oil at the moment. Yet prices are continuing to rise.
Why. Because of this perception this futures market. This paper
barrels and the postulate that in the event that production halts and exports are halted from the second largest producer.
Where will the world get replacement for this. For this and in several
platforms. Pundits here I have listened to the industry players. I think there is a consensus that the world does not have the
capacity at the moment to replace 7 to 8 million barrels of exports.
And again this is linked also to the massive underinvestment in the industry.
There are several news items this morning. The United States saying they are now banning Russian imports from crude joining
Canada the United Kingdom as well. You also have the EU saying that they are aiming to remove dependency on Russian gas by 80
percent by year end. Does that mean other members of OPEC Russia excluded are going to be increasing their market share. Is that
something you might address in your next meeting. Well we are looking at all
the permutations. We continue to monitor developments these developments
and like a said a moment ago at supersonic speed. So we need to remain calm.
We need to continue to monitor and our analysts will continue to analyze. We our decisions are
driven by hard. So what is happening today. We may not have the data until maybe
some weeks to come.
All our decisions in office are based on real data and this data.
What are the sources. These are secondary sources. These are not often data. We use secondary sources from reputable institutions
and agencies. Six of them to make sure that our decision makers are properly equipped
properly advised to check informed decisions. So I urge you to be patient.
We will continue along this lines. But OPIC walk in with our partners in the nonprofit will continue to ensure that security
of supply is guaranteed to the best of our ability. The challenges that are currently facing the industry are global
challenges and we are stakeholders and we believe that we have to be part of the
solution. Now the conversation should be on watch. Should the industry do. What should the players step forward just do to
mitigate this global energy crisis.