Sergey Lavrov is wrapping up a five-day visit to the African continent.
The Russian foreign minister’s trip came as Moscow
tries to find new allies amid growing isolation from the West.
I think that Sergey Lavrov wants to show that Russia’s post-Western
foreign policy is really taking off. He views the Russian-African partnership
as some kind of alliance against the American and European efforts to preserve a unipolar order.
Russia has been condemned by Europe and a lot of countries
and there is a need for Russia to continue to present itself to a domestic audience as
legitimate, that it still has friends in the world.
Back in March, only about half of the 54 African countries supported a
UN resolution calling for Russian troops to withdraw from Ukraine.
There's a large number [of African countries] who feel like, number one, that
punishing Russia with sanctions is actually exacerbating the problem
and that neutrality is the path to supporting a diplomatic solution.
Number two, this is not necessarily ‘our’ fight like European countries’, Western countries’.
Most African countries are using all means possible to balance the relationships that they
have. So what we have here is not so much that Russia has been successful in convincing Africans
about this or that Europe has not been successful. It's just the African countries weighing their
interests and taking a rational decision based on that. And in this case, that decision means we're
not going to antagonize the Russians, we're not going to condemn the Russians en masse.
Lavrov’s trip began in Egypt, a country that did vote in favor
of the UN resolution but has nevertheless maintained close business ties with Russia.
Just days ago, Russia's state-owned atomic energy
giant Rosatom began constructing Egypt’s first nuclear power plant
Specifically in Egypt, Russia is looking for closer relations with the Arab League
via Egypt and also to make sure the El Dabaa nuclear reactor
and the Suez Canal industrial zone projects remain spinning.
Grain exports were also high up on Lavrov’s agenda in Egypt.
The country imported 80% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine last year.
Lavrov offered reassurances over Russian deliveries amid uncertainty over a deal
to resume Ukrainian exports from the Black Sea.
While visiting the Republic of Congo, Uganda and Ethiopia,
Lavrov’s focus shifted onto a different Russian export: weapons.
Outside of Egypt, especially the countries south of the Sahara, their staples are not really based
on wheat. They have other things that they that they eat maize, sorghum, cassava and stuff. But I
think a lot of African countries depend on Russia and China for their weapons and weapon systems.
And so that is an issue and they would not want to burn those bridges.
I think that Russia has been incrementally trying to expand its influence in Africa.
They have been a reliable purveyor of arms to African countries,
the leading seller ahead of China, France and the United States.
Over the last five years, 44% of major arms imports to the continent came from Russia
with Ethiopia – the final leg of Lavrov’s visit to
the continent – being among the largest arms importers in sub-Saharan Africa.
The country has been accused of human rights
violations in its war against rebels in the Tigray region.
But Russia has shielded Ethiopia at the UN Security Council by objecting
to statements condemning abuses by the country’s armed forces.
Meanwhile, Western countries have suspended aid to Ethiopia over the war in Tigray.
The same could happen to other African countries.
Despite efforts by many of them to not pick a side, some EU diplomats have reportedly argued
in favor of cutting aid to countries maintaining close ties with Russia.
The same could happen to other African countries soon if they maintain close
ties with Russia as some European diplomats have reportedly argued in favor of conditioning aid.
That would make it a lot harder for African countries to balance relationships.
They're doing everything they can not to be caught in like a Cold War situation where they're forced
to make a choice. However, from the documents that we've seen from the EU. It looks like the EU is
going to begin to condition assistance to African countries based on the kinds of choices they make.
African countries are slowly getting to a place where it's like a Cold War 2.0.