good afternoon everybody and thank you
very much for coming I've just chaired a
meeting of the government's Emergency
Committee including ministers from
Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland and
it's clear that coronavirus Cove in
nineteen continues and will continue to
spread across the world and our country
over the next few months we've done what
can be done to contain this disease and
this is for last valuable time but it's
now a global pandemic and the number of
cases will rise sharply indeed the true
number of cases is higher perhaps much
higher than the number of cases we have
so far confirmed with tests and I've got
to be clear we were gonna be clear this
is the worst public health crisis for a
generation some people compare it to
seasonal flu alas that is not right
owing to the lack of immunity this
disease is more dangerous and it's going
to spread further and I I must level
with you level with the the British
public more families many more families
are going to lose loved ones before
their time and the chief scientific
adviser will set out the best
information we have on that in a moment
but as we've said over the last few
weeks we have a clear plan that we are
now working through and we're now
getting on to the next phase in that
plan because this is now not just an
attempt to contain the disease as far as
possible but to delay its spread and
thereby minimize the suffering if we
delay the peak even by a few weeks then
our NHS will be in a stronger state as
the weather improves and fewer people
suffer from normal respiratory diseases
more beds are available and we'll have
more time for medical research we can
also act to stretch the peak of the
disease over a longer period so that our
society is better able to cope the chief
medical officer will set out
lines of defense we have to deploy these
at the right time to maximize their
effect the most important task will be
to protect our elderly and most
vulnerable people during the peak weeks
when there is the maximum risk of
exposure to the disease and when the NHS
will be under the most pressure so the
most dangerous period is not now but
some weeks away depending on for how
fast it spreads today therefore we're
moving forward with our plan from
tomorrow if you have coronavirus
symptoms however mild either a new
continuous cough or a high temperature
then you should stay at home for at
least seven days to protect others and
help slow the spread of the disease we
advise all those over 70 with serious
medical conditions against going on
cruises and we advise against
international school trips at some point
in the next few weeks we are likely to
go further and if someone in a household
has those symptoms we will be asking
everyone in that household to stay at
home we're not introducing this measure
yet for reasons sir Patrick will explain
but I want a signal now that this is
coming down the track we are considering
the question of banning major public
events such as sporting fixtures and the
scientific advices we've said over the
last couple of weeks is that this
banning such events will have little
effect on the spread but there is also
the issue of the burden that such events
can place on public services so we're
discussing these issues with colleagues
in all parts of the United Kingdom and
we'll have more to say shortly about the
timing of further action in that respect
at all stages we have been guided
by the science and we will do the right
thing at the right time
we are not repeat not closing schools
now the scientific advice is that this
could do more harm than good
at this time but of course we're keeping
this under review and this again may
change as the disease spreads schools
should only close if they are
specifically advised to do so and that
remains our advice there is no escaping
the reality that these measures will
cause severe disruption across our
country for many months the best
scientific advice is that this will help
us slow the disease and save lives there
will be detailed information available
on the NHS website and from one one one
online but I want to stress something
that's very important in the wake of
what we're saying this afternoon I urge
people who think in view of what we're
saying about their potential symptoms
that they should stay at home I urge
them not to call one one one but to use
the internet for information if they can
I also want at this stage to speak
directly to older people because this
disease is particularly dangerous for
you for older people even though the
vast majority of older people will
experience a mild to moderate illness I
know that many people will be very
worried and I think we should all be
thinking about our elderly relatives
there are more vulnerable members of our
family our neighbours and everything we
can do to protect them over the next few
months we're going to need to mobilize
millions of people to help and support
each other and I just want you to know
that the government will do all we can
to help you and your family during this
period we're not just going to be as you
saw yesterday supporting the economy
during this period we will be providing
money and many other forms of support
and helping communities to support each
other and as we've done over the last
few weeks we will continue to provide as
soon as we have it as much clear
scientific and medical information as we
can so I'd like to end by repeating the
two important messages with which you
will become familiar it is still right
that's more vital than ever that we
remember to wash our hands and lastly of
course even if things seem tough now
just remember that we will get through
this this country will get through this
epidemic just as it has got through many
tougher experiences before if we look
out for each other and commit
wholeheartedly to a full national effort
and I'd now like to thank as fact I'd
like to ask the battery balance our
chief I'd like to thank of everything is
doing but I'd like to thank Sir Patrick
our Sir Patrick balance our chief
scientific adviser to set out the latest
facts and the state of play as he sees
it so this is a new disease and none of
us has immunity to it as the Prime
Minister has said and that was a key
part of what we're looking at here it is
entering a new phase the w-h-o has
called this a global pandemic and we're
entering a delay phase it's important to
recognize that the contained phase of
case identification and isolation has
had an effect to delay things up until
now and currently we're on a trajectory
that looks as though it's about four
weeks or so behind Italy and other some
other countries in Europe that means
that we've now reached a stage when over
the epidemic I just want to
show you on honor on a slide it will
appear good this is the shape of an
epidemic
so you go along the bottom for some time
with not very much happening and that's
probably where we are now
there are currently 590 cases that have
been identified in the UK and there are
more than 20 patients on intensive care
units if you calculate what that really
means in terms of the total number it's
much more likely that we've got
somewhere between five and ten thousand
people infected at the moment we've
identified 590 the same sorts of ratios
will be true in other countries
depending on how much testing they've
done that's still a relatively small
number we're still on the flat part as
these curves start to take off as more
people get it they take off quite
steeply and that's why timing is so
important because what you want to do is
to protect people during the most
infectious period and I explained that
in just a minute so we're in a period
now where we've got some but it hasn't
yet taken off the actions that we need
to take are to try to do two things it's
to delay hopefully this will come on it
is to delay the peak and to push the
peak down so we're trying to reduce the
number of cases at any one time
that's very important for NHS in order
to make the NHS able to cope with this
and it's also important because it
pushes it out into summer months where
the NHS is less busy but also where
there may be less transmission of virus
respiratory infections in general tend
to be a bit less common so that's one
aim is to change the shape of this and
it's important to recognize it's not to
stop everybody getting it you can't do
that it's not possible to stop everybody
getting it and it's also actually not
desirable because you want some immunity
in the population we need to have
immunity to protect ourselves from this
in the future
the second big aim that we need to look
for is how in that we protect the
vulnerable and the elderly who are at
most risk of serious illness and dying
from this and the way this disease looks
as though it appears is that you have
five days or so of mild viral illness
and then a small proportion of people
get a second phase where they have some
sort of immune response to it which
causes the damage and the elderly and
the sick are much more likely to get
that so during the period of peak
transmission we need to protect them at
that phase and if you look at the curves
it becomes obvious if you do that at the
moment you're not protecting anybody
really because then the number of cases
are too small if you do it at the right
time then you're protecting them over
the peak and you're not asking them to
be in isolation for too long
similarly with the idea of households
going into complete isolation that comes
a bit later when you've got some more
cases coming up at the moment if you
asked households to completely isolate
if one person was ill most people would
not have coronavirus you may have to do
the whole thing all over again and what
happens then is the effect of that wanes
because people get fed up with doing
this and you end up with not being able
to do it time and time again so the
timing is critical and that's true
across all of the interventions we've
looked at that's why this is a package
of things that need to happen at the
right time and in the right placing in
terms of mass gatherings and schools
schools it's true that there's some
effect in closing schools but that
effect is minimal and actually you'd
have to do it for 13 to 16 weeks or
longer and you don't need to be a very
advanced mathematician to work out that
the chances of keeping children not
speaking to each other or playing with
each other over 13 to 16 weeks is zero
and therefore you have to be very
careful to make sure you take the right
measures that will stop this rather than
things which might end up with children
for example going to stay with
grandparents at a time when they might
be most vulnerable so the idea is to do
things at the right time not to end up
with measures stopping during the peak
in exposing more people to illness and
I'll hand over to chief medical officer
to explain in more detail the measures
that are being proposed
so I'll just amplify just a few of the
points that have just been made first of
all we are clearly now
stopping the contained phase of this
operation that we've always said from
the beginning the before stages to this
contain delay research and mitigate and
the contain finishes from today
fantastic work has been done by my
colleagues in the NHS and in public
health across all four nations and as a
result of that finding the early cases
they were imported isolating them with
the consent of the people involved which
we are very grateful and following the
chains of transmission that has helped
to slow down the seeding of this virus
and has pushed it out in time so the
delay has already begun as a result of
the work of our colleagues and the
public spiritedness of people who came
forward for testing but now we move on
to the next phase and I think that's
made very clear by the fact that the
World Health Organization yesterday
declared this as a global pandemic
and today the for UK CMOS agreed that we
should you raise the risks to the UK or
for nations to high now in terms of what
can people do to make sure that we have
the the smallest impact from this
epidemic that is possible and we need to
do this
do the right things at the right time
and just to add one point to the reasons
that Patrick is just given if people go
too early they become very fatigued this
is going to be a long haul
it is very important we do not start
things in advance of need there are
several things we will need to do in due
course which it is not appropriate to do
at this stage I'll come on to one of
them at the end now the things we can do
now we cannot emphasize too much the
point about washing hands that is
actually an incredibly powerful public
health intervention but the new things
from today are to ask anybody who has a
cough that is continuous and new or a
temperature for those who choose to
measure their temperature
37 8 some people will do it just based
on the fact that they have a temperature
in terms of feeling we wish those people
to stay at home for 7 days now the
reason for this and I wanted to be clear
about this because we are asking people
to do something which will interfere
with their lives and interfere with
their work and their social life in
quite a significant way so it's
important people understand why this is
going to help the national effort to
combat this virus the first thing is it
helps to protect older and more
vulnerable people who they might come
directly or indirectly into contact with
the second thing is as Patrick has
pointed out this helps to reduce the
peak of the epidemic so that it is a
lower peak making it easier for the NHS
and health services in all four nations
to cope as this goes through the third
thing is that it can lead to increased
delay pushing it further into the area
where the NHS is under less pressure and
giving us more time to get our
countermeasures as optimal as possible I
finally just wanted to make a point
about why it's seven days the virus
seems to have its maximum transmission
around the time of the first symptoms
and for two or three days afterwards and
then rapidly declines so that by four
days the great says I've by seven days
the great majority of people are not
infectious and it is fine for them to go
back into society now you may ask why
are we asking people with minor symptoms
to do this and the answer is the
evidence would appear to be that some
people with really quite mild symptoms
can spread this virus to a lot of people
so people with minor symptoms should
stay at home for seven days now there is
an additional point I want to
re-emphasize from the prime minister
which is just as people would not
normally if they had a - sprain or other
minor problem call for an ambulance it
is important that people with very minor
symptoms do not call
1 1 1 however if their symptoms start to
deteriorate and they're getting to the
point where they normally would have
sought medical care at that point we
would want them to call 1 1 1 or behave
as they normally would have done so
we're not expecting people to stay at
home as they gradually deteriorate if
there's a certain point people are
really worried at that point they should
call the service but doing it routinely
with minor symptoms is not a useful
thing to do for them and it would put a
big burden on the service making it
harder for others to get through with
what may be life life threatening
conditions there are a few other changes
that didn't go alongside this the first
of which is it is no longer needed for
us to identify every case and we will
move from having testing mainly done in
homes and outpatients and walk walk in
centers to a situation where people who
are self who are remaining at home do
not need testing and we will pivot all
of the testing capacity to identifying
people in hospitals who have got
symptoms so we can pick them up early
make sure we treat them well and ensure
that they don't pass on the virus to
other people in hospitals so there'll be
a change in the hospital and other
testing systems and finally we will no
longer have any geographical limits to
who gets tested the testing were based
on symptoms and severity so it's no
longer relevant where someone has come
from this is going to be people
irrespective of their travel history I
want to just to make two points in
addition to that the first one is the
next stage along we are going to want to
do a package of things which are about
putting social distancing around the
people who are vulnerable who are older
people and those with severe health
conditions but we do not think it is
appropriate to make a national
recommendation for that at the moment
because this is too early in the course
of the epidemic that Sir Patrick passed
on and if you think about what would
happen if you prematurely put elderly or
vulnerable people in a situation where
you're saying we really want to cut down
on your social interactions we really
want to cut back on every kind of thing
where you might come into contact with
others it has big practical implications
for them and it may lead to loneliness
and other issues which are clearly very
undesirable for them so whilst we will
need to move to that stage we do not
think this is the right moment along the
pandemic to do so but that point will
come finally are we in mitigation phase
the answer is this is the stage we need
to do the things we can to mitigate
which means to reduce the pressure on
the NHS and other health services and
that is basically made up of two parts
the first part is reducing the peak so
that the demand on the service is
reduced and that is what the
interventions we're talking about today
with people staying at home or help to
do and the second part is to increase
the capacity and flexibility of the NHS
so that it is better able to fit to meet
the very considerable demands that are
going to be heading its way when we
reach the peak of this epidemic
you