In his trade conflict with China, President Trump has made big demands and
big claims that his tariffs on Chinese imports will force Beijing to give in.
I think we will make a deal with China. I really think they want to. I
think they sort of have to.
The reality is more complicated. President Xi Jinping has leverage too.
Available data about the Chinese economy shows plenty of trouble. Stocks
on the Shanghai Composite Index declined 25% last year. China reported
2018 growth of 6.6%. The slowest in 30 years. The question is why? Nick
Lardy an expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics says
the biggest factor is Beijing's own internal economic policies. Trump's
tariffs he says have made China's economy only slightly worse. But the
tariffs have also hurt America's economy. Wall Street has grown jittery,
U.S. growth is slowing, and unlike Xi Jinping whose term is unlimited
Trump faces voters next year. All those factors would seem to point toward
the two largest economies making a modest compromise. Just like the deal
Trump made with Canada and Mexico to revise NAFTA Called U.S.M.C.A. Sort
of just works. Trade specialists say Xi won't eliminate his signature Made
in China 2025 program or wipe out Beijing's huge trade surplus in two
years as Trump has demanded. But Beijing might agree to bring down that
surplus by purchasing more U.S. goods and open new markets to American
exporters. If Trump portrays that as a White House victory Beijing won't
mind because in some ways Trump's America First policy has been helping
China. By exiting the Trans-Pacific Partnership and roiling U.S. allies
Trump has opened the door for a larger Chinese role in global trade. I
think the Chinese were ecstatic that the United States pulled out of the
Trans-Pacific Partnership
And that is an element of the Trump that they're very, very pleased with
and they are taking advantage of it. They want to create a regional
economic trading system that revolves around China and not one in which
the U.S. is involved much less a major player
By diminishing other international commitments he enlarges China's
opportunity for expanded influence through its Belt and Road Initiative of
overseas investment It's planned as one of the largest and most
comprehensive development projects in human history.
They are relentlessly seeking control of ports and raw materials flows all over Africa.
I mean it is such a nakedly neocolonial strategy. And by downplaying human
rights Trump has relieved a non-economic source of American pressure on
the authoritarian Chinese regime. Just as President Trump predicts big
economic benefits from a China trade deal, his aides insist the
administration is upholding American influence in other ways. A White
House spokesman questioned the idea that Trump has downplayed human rights
at all and noted that the administration is pursuing economic, security
and governance cooperation with countries in the Indo-Pacific region
without TPP. In addition to trade Vice President Pence said recently that
cooperation includes infrastructure projects better than the
"unsustainable poor quality" kind in China's Belt and Road Initiative.
Know that the United States
offers a better option. We don't drown our partners in a sea of debt. We
don't coerce or compromise your independence. The United States deals
openly and fairly. We do not offer a constricting belt or a one way road.
When you partner with us we partner with you. And we all prosper
Even if the Trump administration can reach a bilateral trade deal with
China experts like Larry Diamond worry that Beijing's broader effort to
expand its global power may work at the expense of America and the Western
world. I really cannot imagine a more realistic scenario for the future
shape of the world not inevitable but plausible that is more frightening
than having an unreconstructed and increasingly neo-totalitarian, Orwellian
Chinese Communist Party state being the dominant and hegemonic superpower
in the world. The alternative to that has got to be a comprehensive
strategy lead by the world's democracies to project our own values of
freedom, democracy, personal autonomy and innovation, freedom of ideas and
information and to counter the Chinese narrative.