IT'S BECOMING A DISASTER.
>> NBC NEWS IS --
LIVE FROM LVIV.
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING
US.
AND AS RUSSIAN FORCES PUSH
DEEPER INTO UKRAINE TODAY,
CAPTURING THE CITY OF CARSON
AND CIRCLING OTHER STRATEGIC
CITIES LIKE MARY A POLL.
RUSSIAN TROOPS ABANDONING THEIR
VEHICLES WITHOUT A FIGHT --
THE NEW YORK TIMES PUT IT THIS
WAY.
THE REPORTING THAT SOME RUSSIAN
SOLDIERS --
HAVE QUOTE, SURROUNDED ON MASS
OR --
THOSE REPORTS APPEAR TO CONFIRM
VIDEOS POSTED ONLINE BY
UKRAINIANS ACROSS THE COUNTRY,
SHOWING ABANDON RUSSIAN
MILITARY HARDWARE WITH RELIABLE
BATTLEFIELD INFORMATION --
BY ONE OF THE PEOPLE WHO HAS
PROVED MOST ADEPT AT EXAMINING
THESE --
AND PROVING CONTEXT ON --
HE'S AN EXPERT ON RUSSIAN
DEFENSE POLICY AND RUSSIAN
MILITARY HARDWARE.
HE IS A FORMER MARINE --
AND A FORMER --
HE JOINS US.
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING
WITH US.
WHAT IS YOUR IMPRESSION AFTER
SEEING THIS NEW YORK TIMES
REPORT BASED ON U.S. INTEL THAT
ENTIRE UNITS ARE ABANDONING
THEIR VEHICLES, LAYING DOWN
THEIR WEAPONS, RATHER THAN
FIGHTING IN UKRAINE?
DOES THAT COMPORT WITH SOME OF
THE REPORTING YOU ARE ABLE TO
SEE ONLINE?
>> YES.
I THINK IT CONFIRMS WHAT WE ARE
SEEING ONLINE.
A LOT OF THE VIDEO --
MANY WHO ARE SURRENDERING OR
BEING CAPTURED, A COMMON THEME
IS, THEY DID NOT KNOW THEY WERE
GOING TO WAR.
THEY THOUGHT THEY WERE DOING A
TRAINING EXERCISE.
IT IS CLEAR THEY WERE NOT TOLD
--
IT'S REALLY BEWILDERING FOR
THEM.
THEY DID NOT KNOW WHAT THE
PURPOSE OF THIS WAR WAS.
THEY DON'T KNOW WHY THEY ARE
THERE.
IN MANY CASES, BUT CIVILIAN
RESISTANCE THEY ARE SEEING IS
--
IN MANY CASES, THEY ARE BEING
TOLD TO MOVE INTO UKRAINE, THE
PLANNING IS NOT CLEAR --
THEY ARE SEEING ABANDON
VEHICLES AND VEHICLES THAT
APPEAR TO BE IN WORKING ORDER
AND YET THEY'RE STILL BEING
ABANDONED IN LARGE NUMBERS,
WHICH INDICATES THAT, THIS
MIGHT BE DELIBERATE.
AND YET, THERE ARE SOME --
WHAT WE ARE SEEING FROM OPEN
SOURCES.
>> I'M SURE YOU'VE SEEN THIS,
BUT U.S. OFFICIALS TODAY, THEY
SAID THAT RUSSIA HAS PUT A
LARGE NUMBER OF RANK AND FILE
SOLDIERS ON THE GROUND IN
UKRAINE.
MAYBE 70% OF THOSE ALONG THE
BORDER.
BUT PERHAPS WITH INADEQUATE
RESOURCES.
THEY ARE YET TO CONTROL THE
SPACE, THE AIRSPACE, OVER
UKRAINE ENTIRELY.
ARE YOU SURPRISED BY WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR IN TERMS OF
HOW RUSSIA IS EXECUTING THIS
WAR?
>> YES.
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF
SURPRISING ASPECTS.
ONE THING I THOUGHT WAS TO WIN
THE --
OF AVIATION, AIRSTRIKES, ALL OF
THE THINGS THAT --
TRY AND KNOCK OUT THE UKRAINIAN
AIR FORCE, TO TRY TO --
ALL OF THE THINGS I THOUGHT
THEY WOULD ACHIEVE --
KNOCK OUT COMMUNICATIONS IN
KYIV --
AND WE HAVE NOT SEEN THAT.
IT HAS BEEN SURPRISING.
IT IS SPEARS --
IT APPEARS THAT THAT OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC GOALS OR IDEAS OF
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN.
I DON'T THINK THEY THOUGHT THEY
WOULD GET THIS MUCH RESISTANCE.
IT INCLUDES THE CITIES THAT
THEY HAVE TAKEN SO FAR --
IT SHOULD BE MORE --
THERE ARE STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RESISTANCE.
--
IT'S CLEAR THAT THE INITIAL
GOAL WAS TO TARGET KEEP AS
QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
FORCES.
--
THAT FAILED AND NOW THEY ARE
MOVING TO PLAN B.
IT'S NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR TO ME
HOW THEY'RE GOING TO TRANSLATE
MILITARY FORCE INTO ACHIEVING
LONG TERM GOALS.
IT SEEMS THE GOALS THEY HAD
WERE UNREALISTIC TO BE ACHIEVED
BY MILITARY FORCE.
>> YOU ALSO PROBABLY SAW THAT
RUSSIA TODAY ANNOUNCED THAT 500
OF ITS SOLDIERS HAVE DIED IN
THIS CONFLICT SO FAR.
TWO RUSSIAN OFFICIALS TELL NBC
NEWS TODAY THAT IS PROBABLY
MORE TO AROUND 6000 RUSSIANS
THAT HAVE BEEN KILLED IN
UKRAINE SO FAR.
THAT IS A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
LOSSES IN ONE WEEK.
IF TRUE, THAT MEANS MORE
RUSSIAN TROOPS HAVE DIED IN
UKRAINE IN SEVEN DAYS THEN U.S.
TROOPS DID IN AFGHANISTAN IN 20
YEARS AND ALMOST THE SAME
NUMBER OF RUSSIANS THAT DIED IN
CHECHNYA.
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THOSE
CONFLICTING REPORTS?
>> EVEN IF WE ACCEPT THE
RUSSIAN FIGURE, THE 500 AND THE
1500 WOUNDED IN ACTION.
THOSE ARE UNPRECEDENTED NUMBERS
FOR THE RUSSIAN MILITARY UNDER
PUTIN.
--
THAT WAS OVER MANY, MANY YEARS.
IT WASN'T OVER SUCH A COMPLIANT
TIME PERIOD.
IN GEORGIA, RUSSIA LOST FEWER
THAN 100 SOLDIERS, THAT WAS
OVER FIVE DAYS.
IN THE DONBAS IN 2014 AND 2015,
THEY LOST 2 TO 300.
AND IN SYRIA, THEY ONLY LOST A
COUPLE HUNDRED OVER A LONG
CAMPAIGN.
EVEN THE 500 K FIGURE IS
ACCURATE, THAT IS STILL
SUBSTANTIALLY MORE OVER A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME AND RUSSIA HAS
SUFFERED ANYTIME --
IF WE'RE TALKING ABOUT 6000,
THAT REALLY IS AN ASTOUNDING
FIGURE.
IT COMEBACKS TO, DID RUSSIA
EXPECT TO SUSTAIN THESE LOSSES.
I'M NOT SURE THEY DID.
IF IT'S ON THE HIGHER, AND IT
REALLY A SIGNIFICANT.
AND ONE OF THE BIG PROBLEMS,
BUT I THINK IS UNIQUE ABOUT
THIS WAR, IS THAT WHEN YOU
COMPARE TO THE IRAQ WAR, THE
BUSH ADMINISTRATION HAD A
YEARLONG MOBILIZATION CAMPAIGN.
THEY WERE TRYING TO MOBILIZE
PUBLIC SUPPORT.
PUTIN DID NOT DO THAT.
UP UNTIL A FEW DAYS PRIOR --
SO, THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT DID
NOT MOBILIZE THE PUBLIC.
IT'S A BIT OF A QUESTION, IF
THIS DRAGS ON, WHAT IS THE
PUBLIC BACKLASH?
I THINK IT'S A REAL QUESTION.
I DON'T REALLY KNOW.
BUT I THINK IN THE NEXT FEW
WEEKS, WITH THE ECONOMIC
DISRUPTIONS, THAT COULD BECOME
SIGNIFICANT.
AND I THINK IT'S VERY POSSIBLE
THAT PRESIDENT PUTIN WILL BE
FACING POSSIBLY THE GREATEST
DOMESTIC THREAT TO HIS TIME IN
OFFICE IN YEARS OR MAYBE HIS