now let's get an expert's take on this weekend's meeting in Sweden between
working-level officials of North Korea and the United States on the regime's to
neutralization I'm glad to say we are joined on skype by dr. mark Pete berry
an independent Asian affairs analyst who has followed us North Korea relations
for nearly 30 years now so mark I'd like to start by asking these two sides the
u.s. and North Korea haven't sat down since the Hanoi summit collapse with no
deal around eight months ago now given that this is their first face-to-face
since February what are your expectations for these discussions in
Sweden well we expect the mark to meet for about a day day and a half obviously
nothing's going to be solved in a day or a day and a half but if they meet weekly
or every 10 days and they continue that process which was kind of the pattern of
the talks that began in 1993 in Geneva under the Clinton administration where
there were regular meetings that went all the way on through the agreed
framework of October 94 then you can see some fruitful product but I think it
would be absolutely incorrect to have expectations that everything will be
solved in one or two meetings but the fact that it's the foreign ministry in
North Korea that's leading the negotiations at this time and the fact
that the US side is has a new National Security Advisor then I think that
there's a much hopeful sign for for progress now as you touched upon briefly
there things really have changed quite a lot since Hanoi President Trump has
floated this new method of moving forward I guess a job John Bolton is out
of the White House kim yeongcheol is no longer the head of the North delegation
and we are edging ever closer to the 2020 US presidential election so Trump
really wants a big foreign policy win that he can sell to voters do these
factors mean the US will provide the flexibility North Korea has been
demanding from Washington for so long now well it's going to be a rough
nicosia if the media reports are even largely
correct that the u.s. is prepared to allow three years of of sanctions lifted
on the exports of North Korean textiles and coal in exchange for the freezing
enclosure of young beyond nuclear facility and possibly something else
that may be seen by the north as a lopsided bargain that's why it's going
to be a hard-nosed negotiation and if I were President Trump I'd be hoping for
some meeting this year but it may not be possible because the north will dig in
its heels and make the u.s. pay a greater price than perhaps it's
expecting but nonetheless this is the way to make progress but it has to be a
lot of really careful and considerate bargaining without either side giving up
wellyes talks are better than no talks at all now many were really surprised
when North Korea launched a ballistic missile just days ahead of this meeting
in Sweden as we know in North Korea the timing of these launches are never a
coincidence why do you think the regime pulled this potentially risky move so
close to these talks there are multiple reasons but the most important reason is
not only to gain leverage but it's a sign that North Korea cannot be
mistreated so it's always about the prestige of the state and the fact that
they want to be seen and and and dealt with by the United States almost as
equals even though the there's such a huge disparity between both countries so
the firing of such a missile with its potential lethality certainly upon the
entire Japanese nation is a very very strong signal for for Northeast Asia and
it's their way of saying to the United States you have to take it seriously you
cannot mistreat us and you cannot ignore us so to me that's a not inconsistent
message with how North Korea has been bargaining with the u.s. since the early
nineteen it's not a bad sign but I think it is a
bright product of the of the unfortunate events in Hanoi including a lot of miss
reading of each other's intentions in the month of August now before we let
you go do you expect Kim jong-un and President Trump to hold a third summit
soon and if so when do you think it'll happen and where and also do you think
there's any chance at all of Kim heading to the United States or Trump going the
other way I think Kim wants to have it in Pyongyang and of course he'd be happy
to have it by the end of the year we don't know if there's a next year Kim
that's been very clear in his own words that really something has to be settled
by the end of the year so I do think that's North Korea's deadline otherwise
they may pull some interesting stunts that will be very upsetting to the
United States and its allies on the other hand President Trump may be the
most he can do is invite Kim to Honolulu but Trump would prefer a third country I
don't think Kim wants to go to any country where he could be sent home
unexpectedly certainly not Mongolia and if he were to go to anywhere in Europe
whether it's Stockholm or Geneva the reality is that he could still be sent
packing but have to take an Air China flight back home which would be even
more embarrassing if I were Kim I would want it in Pyongyang and president Trump
may find that he has to relent to that but it all depends on what kind of deal
he can sign and that's always the million-dollar question what kind of a
deal does president Trump have and that he can politically accept in order to
use that to buttresses campaign into 2020 well seeing a president Trump in
Pyongyang would be quite something but I suppose with the way things have been
developing over the past year or 18 months you can never second-guess
anything these days you never know yeah exactly well thank you very much for
your perspective we always appreciate your insight welcome yeah and we will
see how this weekend unfolds and
hopefully we'll invite you back for a breakdown of how these talks went that
was dr. mark P berry thank thank you so much for joining us
sure