For decades,
the Chinese leadership made no secret of their intention
to unify Taiwan by force if necessary.
The difference is in the past,
they've never had the capacity to actually carry it out.
We will comprehensively strengthen military training, enhance combat preparedness,
and improve the people’s military’s ability to win.
We’ve heard that 2027, 2025
could be the time that
Taiwan could possibly face an invasion from China.
And these kinds of warnings are really making
Taipei officials more and more uneasy.
Complete reunification of our motherland must be realized
can, without doubt,
Chinese President Xi Jinping
has made unifying Taiwan with the mainland
a key part of what he calls
2027 is the year Xi Jinping
could secure his fourth term in power
and it’s also when he aims to build
a world-class military force.
Beijing has rejected speculation it's moved up any timeline for invasion.
And some US officials said the 2027 prediction is guesswork.
But in Taiwan, the government has picked up the pace
of strengthening its defenses.
My understanding is that 2027 represents a capability shift,
in a sense that this is the year
that the CCP may feel that they have the requisite levels of confidence
to engage in such military action.
Chinese capabilities have increased
enormously over past years.
So it's clear at this point
that Taiwan cannot keep up,
in terms of spending the same amount of money
that the Chinese are able to put in the PLA.
There has been a transition here in Taiwan over the past years
to this idea of asymmetric defense,
asymmetric meaning that we're going to have defense capabilities that are mobile,
that are survivable, that are nimble
and that are able to utilize our unique geographical advantages.
We engaged in politically difficult reforms of our reserves
that have changed from 4 months to 12 months
in terms of the conscription time.
If a conflict scenario were to break out,
local governments are actually extremely important.
As we look at what's happening in Ukraine,
I would say that local governments play an enormous role
not only in organizing defense locally,
but also to ensure that we have volunteers
for police and other public safety duties.
One of the big issues here in Taiwan
is that many people just don't know what to do
if a worst-case scenario were to break out.
As China’s military strength and aggression towards Taiwan grows,
the US is increasingly concerned about the island’s security.
According to assessments leaked earlier this year,
the Pentagon is especially worried about Taiwan’s air defense capabilities.
Chinese state run media, such as CCTV,
have run animations showing the Chinese PLA
overwhelming Taiwan's defenses
using air strikes and missiles.
But how realistic is an attack?
China may have a strong military,
but it's still an enormous gamble for it
to engage in any kind of hot conflict over Taiwan.
The US has signaled that it would be willing to step in
and defend Taiwan,
even though there is no formal defense treaty between Taiwan and the US,
but only if China were to attack Taiwan unprovoked.
For China, the best-case scenario would be
to issue a warning
that's credible enough to induce Taiwan to capitulate
without China ever having to fire a single shot.
We have been living with neighbors like this for decades.
We are threatened every day.
But the most challenge is information warfare.
In 2022 alone,
Chinese fighter jets flew over into the ADIZ
The government departments
were attacked by hackers
5.9 million times per day.
We've seen a massive amount of disinformation
released to play up China’s military strengths,
undermine Taiwan and create divisions
among Taiwanese people and demoralize its army.
But if China amplifies military threats,
it risks driving away Taiwanese investments,
which is really critical for the Chinese economy,
particularly in the technology sector.
With just around just 24 million people,
Taiwan has an economy that’s close to the world’s top 20.
It is home to some of the world's leading semiconductor companies,
such as TSMC, which produces
used in everything from smartphones
to computers and EVs.
Predictions of future conflict have hurt Taiwan,
as foreign investors begin to pull back.
But they've also hurt China.
Taiwan is one of the mainland's biggest investors,
and the companies have been looking elsewhere.
to $6.9 billion.
We've also seen Wang Huning, China's number four top official,
say that China still welcomes investment from Taiwan
and it wants to better integrate Taiwanese companies
into the Chinese economy.
But there's already a shift in mood,
not just reflected on the economic front,
but also in the emergence of civil society schemes
that are aimed at preparing Taiwan for potential military scenarios.
We can never speak for China to tell you
how will it happen and when will it happen.
But we have been preparing for the worst.
It's a whole lot of homework to do,
preparedness and education for the generation who never experienced a war.
We're doing everything we can to avoid conflict
by ensuring that we have the necessary defense capabilities,
by ensuring we have international support.
All of this is designed to forestall a 2027 scenario
and push it back for years to come
and perhaps indefinitely.