The invasion of Ukraine will go down as one of the greatest military boondoggles in modern
history.
Already the lessons learned are being taught in military academies around the world- but
how did Vladimir Putin end up grossly miscalculating his chance to win the war?
The war has been raging for one year and three months as of the writing of this script.
Estimates vary wildly, and neither side has any interest in letting real figures out-
but moderate estimates for casualties place the war at a total of 70,000 killed, and 310,000
wounded.
Of those, Russia is believed to have suffered 50,000 dead and 180,000 wounded, giving it
the lion's share of the death count.
Given Russia's extreme artillery advantage though, Ukrainian wounded are only about 50,000
behind Russian wounded, despite having less than half the dead.
This is because artillery is extremely good at wounding, but not so good atg killing entrenched
troops.
Russia has already suffered nearly as many confirmed KIA as the US did during the entire
duration of the Vietnam War, 20 years of direct involvement.
In terms of gains, Russia has at best temporarily secured large parts of the separatist east,
but has failed to fully consolidate the breakaway republics which are now, at least according
to Russian law, officially part of Russia.
The international community however does not recognize the illegal annexation of Ukraine's
east.
In exchange for tenuous control over the Ukrainian breakaway regions, Russia has lost immeasurably
more.
Over 1,000 western companies have either fully or at least partially pulled out of Russia,
taking a significant amount of investment capital with them, dealing significant damage
to the Russian economy.
Prices on many goods have doubled or more, though the Russian economy remains relatively
stable thanks to a significant war chest Putin had built up over the years for exactly this
scenario.
The bad news is half of that 600 billion dollar reserve was frozen at the onset of war, and
the remaining has been steadily draining away as Russia attempts to keep the Russian economy
afloat.
Exact economic data can be difficult to find, as Russia no longer allows for independent
verification of its market figures.
Instead, Russian officials have been feeding organizations like the IMF their own data,
which much to their discredit the IMF has happily published without an ounce of skepticism.
However, independent analysis of the Russian economy by multiple American and British groups
have found an economy in serious trouble, only kept afloat by significant government
spending.
But its deficit hit a record of 1.8 trillion at the start of this year, with revenues falling
by about a third and spending growing by 58%.
Russian GDP dropped by between 2.2% or up to 3.9%, depending on who you ask- and none
who you could ask has been granted access to internal Russian financial data.
The true GDP loss could be significantly higher than that, and only expected to continue.
Revenues from the export of energy have fallen significantly thanks to a painful European
embargo and the imposing of price caps on Russian oil by the EU.
This means that nobody using European ships, infrastructure, or any ships or infrastructure
insured by an European agency, is allowed to purchase oil at a higher price than the
$100 a barrel for products that trade at a premium to crude, and $45 for products traded
at discount such as fuel oil and naphtha.
The price cap was not meant to destroy the Russian energy sector though, and criticism
about its ineffectiveness is completely missing the point- Europe wants Russia to continue
selling oil, it just doesn't want it making a profit on it.
Given the increased distances to ship certain products out of the EU and to foreign markets,
as well as the inefficiency of Russian equipment, cost of setting up new trade routes, and infrastructure,
Russia is estimated to be at a break-even point on oil revenue.
This means it's earning just about as much as it spends on extracting, refining, and
shipping, which prompted Russia to begin to tax its oil companies on the price of brent
crude, rather than what its own oil is actually earning.
This is obviously unsustainable and will cripple the Russian oil sector for decades as it sucks
out funds for expansion, exploration, and basic maintenance.
While nations like China and India are greatly benefiting from the deeply discounted oil
and thus earning some amount of international ire, a complete boycott would be the exact
opposite of what the EU wants.
If Russian oil disappeared overnight, it would drive up the cost of other oil supplies through
the roof- hence why the EU wants Russia to continue selling its energy supplies.
Thingsare still getting worse for Russia, though.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive has already begun as of the writing of this script with
shaping operations utilizing HIMARS and Storm Shadow missiles deep behind enemy lines.
Ukraine is preparing the battlefield for the coming offensive, and part of that preparation
includes helping the Freedom of Russia Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps launch attacks
inside of Russia.
Multiple times now both groups have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia, with
their most high profile attack into Belgorod seeing them occupy multiple villages for two
days before pulling back.
The ongoing raids across the border are brazen, and are helping fuel panic amongst Russian
population.
A subsequent drone swarm attack against Moscow at the end of May fed even more fuel to that
fire, as Vladimir Putin was left looking incompetent and incapable of defending his own capital
from drone attack.
While the drones weren't armed with high explosives, at least three buildings were struck in wealthy
Moscow suburbs, injuring two and causing minor damage.
The real point of the attack was to erode Russian support for Putin, and to incite public
anger against the wealthy elite who have leeched off Russian society for decades.
When the attacks were announced, Russians around the country celebrated the fact that
they had struck inside the same communities were government and business elites live.
Putin is a president up a creek without a paddle.
So how'd he get here?
It all began with a botched intelligence assessment of the situation inside of Ukraine.
Before the invasion was launched, Vladimir Putin entrusted his plans to only a few advisors.
Fearing leaks, and a western rush to supply Ukraine with arms meant to discourage an invasion,
the plan to attack Ukraine was kept secret and only within a very small, tight circle.
However this meant that nobody in the military was prepared.
Neither was Russia's intelligence apparatus.
As Putin was preparing his invasion, he decided to take the temperature of Ukraine by tasking
the FSB with the job of infiltrating Ukraine and gauging how a Russian invasion would be
met.
Details remain incredibly murky, but by all accounts Russian intelligence did not believe
Putin would be brazen enough to actually invade.
Given the extreme state of corruption inside of Russia, the intelligence agents assigned
this delicate task apparently fabricated their reports, pocketing the millions of rubles
assigned to them instead of spending them on their mission.
Thus as Putin reviewed plans to invade Ukraine, he was assured that Ukrainians would meet
the Russians as liberators.
Famously, the Ukrainians did not in fact meet the Russians as liberators.
Shockingly though, Russia's intelligence failure was so bad, that even in Ukraine's east which
is the most pro-Russian part of the nation, Putin's forces were met with violence rather
than jubilation.
The expected collapse of the Ukrainian military did not occur, and while a handful of senior
military officers and political officials did cooperate, it was not the flood of insider
support that Putin had expected.
The approaches to Mariupol had been demined, but the people of Mariupol resisted nonetheless.
Russia's second intelligence failure was in properly assessing the state of the Ukrainian
military.
Many Americans have some experience training alongside the Ukrainians as part of multiple
ongoing missions after the end of the Cold War.
One soldier we spoke with described Ukraine's military in the early 2010s as a quote- a
complete joke.
Discipline was low, facilites were terrible, training was worse, and the soldiers received
so little respect that civilian contractors regularly bullied them- even running through
a guard post they had erected to serve as a traffic check point.
Nobody respected the military, because Ukraine's military in the early 2010s still resembled
the Russian military of the same era- a husk of its former self from the Soviet days, with
corruption rampant and every soldier out for themselves.
What Russia's intelligence failed to take note of though was that it did not remain
that way.
After the 2014 invasion of Crimea, NATO stepped up its support for Ukraine fearing a wider
Russian invasion.
Along with this support came sweeping reforms, and while today the Ukrainian military continues
to struggle with its Soviet roots thanks to many older officers and NCOs who had their
start in the Soviet system, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are now a capable and competent
force.
Things aren't perfect, there is still some corruption and the UAF's military doctrine
is lacking in large areas- but Ukraine has proven its military is adaptable and a very
quick study of the western way of war.
Russia however missed what was taking place right on its own border.
It failed to see the restructuring of the Ukrainian military and the professionalism
that began to grow in the wake of the 2014 invasion when UAF forces largely cut and run
at the sight of Russian tanks.
It failed to take note of the battle-hardened veterans it had created through ongoing fighting
in the east of the country against Russian-backed separatists, and it specially failed to note
the influx of man-portable anti-tank and air defense weapons along with western training
instructors.
When Russia crossed the border into Ukraine it faced a military that had radically evolved
in the last eight years.
In large part though, Russia's invasion of Crimea helped Putin disastrously miscalculate
how the west would respond.
As Russian forces poured into Crimea, the west did little to stop Putin.
Sanctions were enacted, but these were weak and amenic, with most of Europe leery of angering
their number one energy supplier over a piece of a former Soviet Republic.
Sanctions would eventually be strengthened, and we would see just how effective sanctions
targeting dual-use technology would be as Russia entered into Ukraine with a critical
shortage of drones.
However, overall, the West's response was tepid at best, even as Moscow fueled an ongoing
violent civil war in Ukraine's east.
Convinced that the west would respond similarly, Putin was emboldened to invade again- only
this time to take not just a piece of the pie, but the whole thing.
To be fair, he had good reason to believe the west would once more let him get away
with his invasion.
America was, and continues, to be divided politically- in no small part to Russian influence
operations.
These same influence operations have been ongoing in Europe since the late 2000s, and
helped fuel Brexit while funneling money to right-wing parties and individuals.
Russia has been sowing xenophobia and nationalism in a bid to splinter the EU and the NATO alliance,
or at least to weaken it and distract it from his schemes in eastern Europe.
This has largely worked.
But nobody could predict that rather than fall apart, the US and Europe would come together.
Despite continued political division in the United States, the nation remains largely
united behind support for Ukraine.
Europe likewise has been strongly supporting Ukraine, with nations like Poland practically
declaring war on Russia on their own as they push every available piece of hardware across
the border as quick as they can.
Westerners have grown fat and lazy, too concerned with their own good lives to shoulder any
sacrifice- this is the thinking of many Chinese political scientists, who believe that the
west would crumble if its comfortable way of life was threatened.
Putin too believed the same thing, and nobody could have predicted the astonishing speed
and severity of sanctions that followed Russia's invasion.
Europe, who had been warned by the US to not deepen its energy ties with Russia as it provided
Putin leverage, took on the incredibly painful task of severing its energy dependence on
Russia, something which would have been unthinkable at the dawn of 2022.
Inevitably though, Putin made the mistake of invading.
And very quickly discovered that he had been drinking his own kool-aid.
Just two months before the invasion, major western publications were publishing articles
warning about Russia's quote- modern and proficient combined arms military.
Nobody questioned that Russia had the world's second strongest military, and thoughts of
Russian combined arms armies crossing the border into the Baltics terrified NATO military
planners.
We ourselves were drinking the kool-aid alongside the vast majority of analysts and think tanks
in the world, publishing a video on how formidable Russia's military had become months before
the invasion of Ukraine.
In a way, the world can't really be blamed too much for falling for this illusion.
Information is tightly controlled inside Russia, and the nation had put on a series of large
scale exercises showing off its combined arms prowess.
After the Zapad 2017 exercise, the US Defense Intelligence Agency noted that quote- Russia's
forces are becoming more mobile, more balanced and capable of conducting the full range of
modern warfare.
What the world missed however was that these exercises were highly choreographed, and Russian
troops would find that real military operations are a lot harder when someone's actively trying
to kill you.
Putin however, also fell for the lie that the Russian military was a modern and capable
force simply because it looked good in an exercise field or on parade, and here he's
both at fault but also not to blame.
The Russian military is thoroughly corrupt, the depth and scale of which has been kept
secret until the invasion of Ukraine.
Shortly after crossing the border, the Russian military revealed its rotten core to the world,
and it's this systemic corruption that helped fuel Putin's miscalculation.
Corruption exists at every level of the military.
Young enlisted troops, either volunteers or conscripts, prey on brand new troops, beating
and abusing them while stealing everything they can from them, sometimes even forcing
them to ask family for money just so they can steal it.
Few NCOs exist, because not many conscripts choose to remain to serve as professional
soldiers, and NCO training is non-existent in the form known in the west, where new NCOS
attend specialized training.
What NCOs do exist though prey on their underlings, as they themselves are preyed upon by their
officers.
At nearly all levels though is wanton and blatant theft, troops steal the copper wiring
from their own vehicles so they can sell it, and officers steal funds meant for training
or equipment upkeep.
A common practice in the Russian military is what's known as 'photo reports'.
Rather than file a detailed report on unit training goals, status, and results, Russian
officers simply take photos of their troops training and send it up the chain.
Naturally, this leads to incidents such as an officer taking his troops out to the firing
range, having everyone fire a few rounds while he takes a photo or short video, and then
immediately terminating training.
The officer can then pocket all the money not spent on training, while the unit fails
to maintain their proficiency or build even basic soldiering skills.
Further up the chain, unit commanders falsify records to show their units as having more
men than they actually have.
This is because soldier's pay is given directly to their unit commander, who's job it is to
divy it among the men.
Naturally, the more men in a unit, the more pay the unit will receive- with the commander
pocketing the pay of every 'phantom' soldier he lied about in his paperwork.
However, most will also skim some right off the top anyways, shorting their own troops.
At even higher levels, scams run rampant.
One Russian senior officer was imprisoned shortly after the invasion when it was discovered
that he had sold hundreds of gallons of fuel meant for his armored vehicles to local villagers.
These fuel scams are very common, as well as outright theft of military property such
as weapons, ammunition, or ordnance which can be sold on the black market.
At the acquisitions level, corruption is so common that the cost of it is baked into the
cost of acquiring new weapons.
Russia finds it cheaper to buy Iranian drones for example because the built-in cost of bribes
and kickbacks makes Russian-built drones too expensive to build and buy.
All this adds up to a military with a thoroughly rotten core and very little proficiency.
Putin, who's surrounded himself by yes-men that he can control, was aware of some corruption-
such is the way in Russia- but had no idea just how poorly prepared his troops were for
real combat operations.
This is where he is both at fault and not at fault, because while he couldn't have known,
it's also his fault that the Russian military is as corrupt as it is.
Having perpetuated the same culture of corruption that brought him to power, he should've hardly
found it surprising that everyone up the entire chain of command was also enthusiastically
engaging in it as well, hollowing out his military forces.
Putin believed that he'd be able to take Kyiv in three days after seeing the brutal speed
of American combined arms operations in Afghanistan and Iraq.
However, Putin had miscalculated just how poorly prepared the Russian military was,
both in terms of basic competency and logistics.
It doesn't help that Putin appears to remain largely blind to the troubled state of his
own military, as defectors with close access to the dictator have confirmed that he watches
no media except Russian state media, and doesn't even browse the internet.
This means we won't be getting a very special subscriber from the heart of the Kremlin,
but on the other hand that might be a good thing- because the bigger Putin's miscalculations,
the faster he ushers in the defeat of the Russian military and his own downfall.
Now go check out Analyzing Ukraine's Next Move Against Russia, or click this other video
instead!