there are numerous military conflicts
border disputes and all-out wars
happening
right now with all of these
international conflicts comes the
question
of escalation how far will they go
could any one of these conflicts
escalate enough
to cause a nuclear war to answer that we
first have to look at which countries
actually have nuclear weapons as of now
there are eight states known to have
nuclear weapons
and they fall into two categories
countries that have signed the treaty on
the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons
or npt
and countries that have not the u.s
russia the uk
france and china all have nuclear bombs
and have all signed the npt
these five countries have agreed to stop
making nuclear weapons
they've also agreed to destroy their
current stockpile over time
the treaty has the lofty goal of a
nuclear weapon-free world
but it's not enforced by any one
governing body and the five states are
basically under the honor system
so progress is slow if moving at all
then we have three nuclear-capable
countries with bombs that are not part
of the npt
india pakistan and israel these
countries refused to sign the treaty
before it was put into effect in 1970
primarily because it capped the number
of countries who were allowed to have
nuclear weapons at five
the five countries that already had them
these three countries had not yet
developed their nuclear programs
india tested their first nuclear weapon
in 1974 and pakistan tested theirs in
1998.
israel has not confirmed or denied
having a nuclear arsenal and there is no
solid evidence of them testing a bomb
but according to the federation of
american scientists israel may have as
many as 80 nuclear weapons
there are also countries that might be
pursuing nuclear weapons
like iran which has a nuclear program
but they claim
it is for energy use only after a series
of embargos and sanctions iran has
agreed to scale their program down
but they also recently missed a deadline
with the un to provide specific
information pertaining to their nuclear
explosion experiments
so we can't really be sure what their
current status is
north korea who withdrew from the npt in
2003 has conducted three nuclear tests
and is said to have enough plutonium for
six to ten warheads
but they have yet to develop a
functional nuclear weapon we think
north korea doesn't share information so
no one really knows how close they are
so with all that said how worried should
we be about a nuclear war
well china and india have a no first use
policy meaning they won't use nuclear
weapons unless they are attacked with
one first
the uk has stated they won't use their
nuclear weapons unless an enemy state
uses a wmd
against their troops the us is vague
about it but claims to have nuclear
weapons as a deterrent
russia dropped their no first use policy
in 1993 and now claims that they will
only use their nuclear weapons
if the russian federation is under
threat france and pakistan have policies
similar to russia's
which just leaves israel who has not
made an official policy yet because they
haven't officially acknowledged that
they even have nukes
but that doesn't change the narrative no
one wants to be the first nation to
strike
using a nuclear weapon in this day and
age would bring large-scale retribution
from the international community
and possible nuclear counter-strikes as
it stands now the main argument for
nuclear weapons
is to prevent attacks by nuclear weapons
add in
all the agencies actively monitoring and
preventing the proliferation of nukes
the successful dismantling of libya's
nuclear program in 2004
south africa intentionally dismantling
their own program
and weapons in 1991 and israel
eliminating syria's nuclear reactor by
bombing their facilities in 2007
and the threat seems even less real if
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and their conflicts please
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