Welcome to Tesla Economist.com
Alright, I am very excited today to present to you a special treat.
I have created a new tool for analyzing Tesla's stock price.
A web site that gives us all the financial data for all the quarters, and allows us to
analyze and compare each quarter to help us get a good idea of what is really going on
with this company.
As I like to say, the numbers don't lie, and everyone has the same numbers, whether you
are a retail investor with 10 shares, or a billionaire hedge fund manager, the data is
the same.
It's how you infer it that makes a difference.
So I created something that will help you better interpret and analyze the actual data.
CHARTS
Let's get started.
The web site is tesla economist.com, it's currently completely free to use.
When you first arrive you will see your first chart.
By default the first chart is total production, displaying production for all quarters since
Q1 2021.
As you can see the bar chart displays the value for each quarter and you can hover the
cursor over any bar to get the actual value.
If you scroll down you will see more charts.
In fact a dozen different charts, all showing data from Q1 2021, about the last 2 years
of numbers.
Like total deliveries, auto revenue, operating margin and the other major things investors
look for when researching Tesla numbers.
Data that I had to continually look up in the financials, all displayed in one convenient
place.
SIDE NAV
There is also a side navigation that shows you all the charts that we have available
to view.
By default, these are the popular charts.
Clicking on any of the links on the side nav, will take you to the specific chart, and again
you can view the historic data.
Ok, that's handy, but likely nothing too new.
However on the side nav, as I said we are viewing the popular metrics, there is also
a link to view all the metrics.
By clicking on that we add in all the metrics we have available.
About 50 or so now, so lots to see.
METRICS I have split the metrics up into 3 categories.
The first is the financial data, like revenue and profit.
Again you can click on any of these links and we can see the historic data of each metric.
Then below financials, we have operations, like production, deliveries, storage deployed
or even the number of supercharger connectors.
Then the third section is vehicle.
This contains some of the metrics that are then divided by the number of deliveries,
so you can see how revenue, or expenses relate on a per vehicle basis.
For example auto revenue per vehicle is going to be on the lines of ASP of the vehicles,
at least certainly enough to get an indication.
It doesn't stop there though either, you can actually click on the link in the side nav
called Customize.
Here you can select just the metrics you want to view by selecting them or unselecting them,
then clicking on update navigation.
QUARTERS But Tesla is a massive growth company, and
although there has been a lot of progress since 2021 that we can see, it doesn't give
an accurate enough representation of the true exponential growth.
So there is another link on the side nav called Change Quarters.
If you click on this then we can select which quarters we wish to see.
And it now goes back as far as mid 2018.
I would like to add more data eventually, but it wasn't all as available with some of
the older reports and does become harder to extract, but this site is new, we can keep
building it if it becomes popular.
You can click on the years, or the specific quarters, and you can choose absolutely any
quarter you so choose, that you want to compare.
Then once selected you click update, and then you can see the charts for all those specific
quarters.
If you select them all, then you get all the data for all these metrics as far back as
2018.
And when you have that much data, you can really start to see some trends.
However you can just select specific quarters too.
For example if you just wanted to compare Q3 for each year in the past, then you can
select just those quarters you want the data for.
DATA TABLES
Below each chart there is also a link that says show data.
If you click on this, it will display a table with all the specific figures for the data
that you are viewing for each quarter you have selected.
So all the data that we want is stored and available to you as well.
All designed to save you time, to give you the data you want, so you don't have to go
digging through all the financial reports.
FULL SCREEN
There is another link below each chart too called Full Screen, this takes you to a new
page that just shows this chart.
You can then share this as a url for other people to view.
I think there are more features we could add to this page too.
COMPARE
In the top navigation there is also a link called Compare, that goes to another page.
Now here you are able to compare two metrics against each other.
For example Automotive Revenue vs Operating Profit.
But you can literally compare any of the metrics you so choose against another, to help your
further analysis of this company.
HIDE NAV Also if you are on a mobile device, or a smaller
resolution screen, you can hide the nav with the link at the top that says hide nav, and
then you should be able to view all the charts fine too.
EXAMPLES And that's pretty much it, I think its fairly
quick and easy to easy to use.
To give you an idea of how you can use this tool, and customize what you want, I thought
we could take a look at earnings.
Now if you look at earnings this year.
I click on change quarters, and set the quarters to just this year, then click update.
Then click on the chart for Net Income GAAP.
Now, if you look at earnings so far this year, it actually doesn't look that good, Q3 net
profits weren't even as high as Q1, and there was a massive dip in-between them called Q2.
This isn't what you expect when Tesla have launched two new huge factories producing
their highly profitable Model Y.
Of course we have gone in depth many times explaining why this is the case.
But for an analyst looking at the figures, it certainly doesn't look like great performance.
Like I said we know the issues with the new factories explain the reason profits are not
doing well this year, but if we take a look at revenue too, that too also shows minimal
growth for the company, which doesn't look close to how you expect a growth company with
a round of p/e 60 to be performing.
10% growth in revenue from Q1 to Q3, and a massive drop during Q2.
Of course we have explained why this is the case many times also.
There is often noise in short term data, freak events occur, but it doesn't stop the overall
growth, ramping, and expansion.
So that when you actually zoom out, as people like to put it, you can see the growth clearly
then.
Instead how about for this unimpressive Q3, we compare it to all other Q3s instead, and
see how it looks then.
If I click on change quarters again, and just select Q3 from each year, and update the charts.
Then the pattern changes.
Revenues see a clear upward trend significantly.
And even more so again with earnings.
Giant leaps in fact when it comes to net profits.
Now do you think that after seeing this exponential growth for the last several years, its suddenly
all about to taper off?
Or do you think that there is chance it may continue.
Especially given that Tesla have 2 massive factories barely even started and even further
behind with their new in-house cell production, and significantly lower cost methods of production?
Well that's for you to decide, but I think you can guess what I believe.
IDEAS Anyway, feel free to play around with it and
test it out, remember tesla economist.com.
And if you have any ideas of any other features we could add to this site, what you might
like to see, or what you think could also be useful, then please do comment.
Whether it's ideas on adding to the analysis, or simply more tools that could help the community
analyze Tesla, then let me know, and perhaps we can build this into something really cool.
The more popular it proves to be, and the more people use it, the more it will certainly
motivate me to keep building and expanding the site.
Or even if there are certain ways this site is working that could be more intuitive, let
me know and I will try and make it easier to use.
My hope is that this could become a powerful resource for the community.