Is war coming to Taiwan?
And if war does break out, will it turn into a world war
that ropes in other countries like the United States and Australia?
These are some of the questions being thrown around right now. China has been sending a
record number of warplanes into Taiwan's air defence zone and Taiwan's Foreign Minister
says tensions between the two are at the worst they've been in decades. The big fear in
the international community is that China is edging towards invading Taiwan.
An invasion has been on the cards for the past 70 years.
It hasn't happened yet, largely because
of the United States. But some worry that the careful balance of peace in the region is
starting to slip.
Before we look at the million dollar question of how likely a war
may be, we need to understand why China is so keen on taking this small island and why the
US are even involved in any of this in the first place.
Let's start with some background.
There's a good chance that you know of Taiwan as a part of China, or at least connected
to China in some way. The reason why there's so much tension between the two is
because they both very fiercely disagree on what their relationship actually is.
For starters, Taiwan and China both refer to themselves as China
even though most of the world only recognises this China as China.
Taiwan refers to itself as the Republic of China.
It's led by President Tsai Ing-wen and sees itself as its own independent country
with its own flag, military, economy, etc.
China, on the other hand, which is led by
President Xi Jinping, and officially known as the People's Republic of China,
says that Taiwan actually belongs to them. They see Taiwan as a renegade province
destined to be unified with the mainland one day.
So, how did we end up with two places
that call themselves China?
It goes back to World War 2.
At the time, the Republic of
China was a member of the Allied forces. It was a military dictatorship led by
Chiang Kai-Shek's Chinese Nationalist Party, the Kuomintang. At the end of the
war in 1945, Japan was defeated
and land that had been occupied, including
Taiwan, was returned.
Unfortunately, another thing that returned to China was
Civil War, which had been fought on and off for decades between the nationalists and
communists.
By the end of 1949, the Communist Party, and its Red Army, led by Mao Zedong, had
defeated Chiang Kai-Shek, who fled with more than a million of his anti-communist
supporters to the island of Taiwan.
This is how one China became two.
Mao and the CCP
established the People's Republic of China
with its capital in Beijing.
Meanwhile, Chiang Kai-Shek announced
that Taipei would be the new temporary capital of the
Republic of China and maintained that its government was the only legitimate
authority in China. If you're wondering why Mao didn't just head over to Taiwan to finish
the job and crush the nationalists,
this is where the United States comes into the story.
As the Korean War kicked off in 1950, Western countries were getting more
nervous about the spread of communism in the region.
If aggression is successful in Korea, we can expect it to spread throughout Asia and
Europe and to this hemisphere.
So, the US established an alliance with Chiang Kai-Shek's regime, making an
invasion by the People's Republic of China a lot more unlikely.
With war pretty much
off the table, the situation turned into a political fight for international recognition.
Countries around the world were basically forced to pick a side as to who they
recognised as the legitimate government of China. Chiang Kai-Shek's Republic of China
had a head start. It was a founding member of the United Nations in 1945.
Even after Mao's victory in the civil war in 1949, Chiang Kai-Shek's government
continued to hold China's seat at the UN and was recognised by most Western countries as
the legitimate government of China in the 50s and 60s. Over time, things started to
change. By 1971, the PRC had gained enough allies to unseat the ROC at the UN. This is
around the time when many countries started to think of the People's Republic of China
as China and the Republic of China as Taiwan.
By the end of the 70s, the US and Australia
joined the growing tide of countries that were switching their recognition to the PRC.
The PRC was a lot bigger and more influential on the world stage than the ROC and had
become an attractive trading partner.
Not only that, but a breakdown in the relationship between communist powers
China and the Soviet Union led to China becoming friendlier with
the West. This was extremely valuable to the United States during the Cold War.
Now, I admit this might seem confusing. If the US switched sides in the 70s, why is it
seemingly in Taiwan's corner today? The thing is, even though the US switched its
recognition because of the economic and geopolitical benefits,
it’s still maintained a form alliance with Taiwan that continues to this day.
Countries like the United States and Australia officially recognise the PRC
as the legitimate government of China.
But, in official terms, they only acknowledge,
not recognise, China's claim to Taiwan.
So, they acknowledge the fact that
China believes it owns Taiwan, even if they may not agree with it themselves.
This creates a bit of a grey area that allows countries to still maintain informal relations
with Taipei, even if they don't officially recognise Taiwan as an independent country.
Right now, Taiwan exists in a weird kind of limbo, a de facto state of
independence. It enjoys a lot of the benefits of being an
independent nation in how it runs itself,
but officially, it isn't seen as an independent country by the
majority of the world, and it faces constant pressure from China to unify. This brings us
to three key questions:
Let's start with that first one:
China's obsession with unification.
A lot of this comes from the importance that China places
on nationalism and being proud of one's Chinese identity.
Nationalism in China is like a religion these days. It is absolutely rammed down your
throat, through mass media, through the film industry, through daily propaganda,
through banners on streets.
Chinese nationalism is built on what we call the
There's a concept in China known as the 'Century of Humiliation'. The basic idea
is that for about 100 years, China pretty much lost every war that it fought, and it was
forced to give up a lot of
money and territory to foreign
powers. According to the
Chinese Communist Party, that humiliation ended in 1949 and since then, the CCP has been
determined to restore China to its former glory.
China bit by bit has reclaimed territory from imperial colonisers, like in Macau,
more recently in Hong Kong. Taiwan, it is sort of like the missing piece of the Communist
Party's great triumph.
Which will then further cement the Chinese Communist Party's narrative and status as
Failing to unify Taiwan would be seen as a bit of a disaster in China.
No regime in China can actually withstand the pressures coming through by
losing territory.
They will be judged historically as great failures if they don't do this if they
can't achieve it.
Okay, so we know why it means so much to China, but what about the US? It comes down to
a couple of potential reasons. Firstly, Taiwan is seen as a crucial player in the future
of technology.
Taiwan's semiconductor company produces more than half of the world's high end semiconductor
computer chips.
These chips are essential for practically any kind of computer or advanced
electronics, including digital infrastructure like 5G networks. Then there's
Taiwan's strategic value. This island chain is home to military bases of the US and
its allies. It becomes a lot less useful if China can just simply bypass them and launch
its forces from Taiwan. Finally, a decision by the United States not to step in
may impact its relationship with its allies.
The American alliance system kind of depends, to a huge degree, on what happens in Taiwan.
If in the end, it chooses not to, then it comletely undermines the confidence and faith that the
Japanese, the South Koreans, the Australians, and others would have in continuing their US
military alliances, if the Americans don't have the stomach to defend Taiwan.
This also goes the other way
and is a reason why an ally like Australia
would likely join the US if a conflict did flare up,
especially in light of the recent AUKUS security pact
and nuclear submarine deal.
Now, it's time to ask:
Things have changed a lot since the
authoritarian regime of Chiang Kai-Shek,
which hoped to retake the mainland and rule a
unified Republic of China.
These days, Taiwan is a thriving democracy led by the Democratic Progressive Party
and most Taiwanese people simply want independence from the mainland.
The problem is
the DPP is in a tough spot. If it openly announces that it wants independence for Taiwan,
it would drastically escalate tensions with China. In order to keep the peace, Taiwan is
stuck in this de facto independence limbo.
So, with the current stalemate, what happens next?
Over the years China has made an effort to peacefully court Taiwan. China
has also proposed a solution known as 'One Country, Two Systems'.
If that sounds
familiar, it's because it's the agreement that China currently has in place in Hong
Kong. It's supposed to allow places like Hong Kong to operate under a unique system
of government while still being an official part of China.
However, 'One Country,
Two Systems' isn't exactly inspiring a lot of confidence in the Taiwanese.
Obviously, as Hong Kong showed, the Chinese government will never really give the
Taiwanese people autonomy, the communists just don't have that in their DNA.
What happened in Hong Kong has probably been the worst thing ever for China's efforts to
persuade the Taiwanese that the communists would be benevolent rulers. And for
that reason, we're now seeing more and more military pressure.
Just a quick side note, Hong Kong and Taiwan's situations are very different. Hong Kong
has been an officially, universally recognised part of China for decades, unlike Taiwan.
The big, big thing which many people in Taiwan always point out is that the PRC has never
ruled Taiwan, the communists have never ruled Taiwan.
With persuasion not doing too well and military pressure increasing, it finally leads
us to the big question:
The answer is understandably not clear cut.
The likelihood of a war is very, very slim.
It's probably not imminent in the next couple of years, because the Chinese military
is going through a rapid expansion and why would they use it now? Why wouldn't they
wait another 10 years or 20 years, when the gap between their military strength and
the US military strength is even smaller?
So, unlikely at the moment, but even if it seems more likely in the future, it's
important to remember that war is almost always seen as a last resort, especially when
it involves countries that have a lot to lose, not to mention the fact that we're
talking about two nuclear powers going head to head.
What is at play is not just Taiwan alone, but China's international status. You
know, this recognition as the second largest economy in the world that is built upon free
trade globalisation. That is something that China cannot back off from.
All of this is a big reason why a lot of the moves being made right now are all about
trying to win this tussle without actually having to fight.
I don't think the aim is to, you know, build up to a point where China actually wants to
invade. I think the aim over 5 years, 10 years, 15 years, will be, first, say to the
United States 'hey, look, our military is almost on parity with yours'.
'If we do this,
and you come in, this will be an incredibly bloody war, it will be a stalemate and you'll
end up withdrawing, and we will win. So don't come in.'
The second thing is to send
the message to the Taiwanese that 'hey, look, Washington can't save you and we're going
to get you one way or another. So, your best bet is to come together and agree, on our
terms, to some sort of partial autonomy'.
You can already see this kind of thinking in action now. Just take a look at what
started this whole discussion in the first place, the record number of Chinese warplanes
being flown into Taiwan's air defence zone. It's all about showing what China is capable
of and trying to make things seem hopeless for the Taiwanese and defeat inevitable.
So, all things considered, unless there is a drastic change to the current situation
it seems like this stalemate isn't going away anytime soon.