It's often hard to tell which movies will be big hits and which ones are destined to
flop, but the 2019 film calendar has a number of potential major duds in waiting.
Be glad your salary doesn't depend on any of these films making money, and get ready
for a sneak peek at the biggest box office bombs of 2019.
Serenity certainly has a lot going for it.
It stars A-list Academy Award winners Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway, on screen together
for the first time since Interstellar.
But even their beautiful, million-dollar mugs are no guarantee it will make bank.
Sure, McConaughey has evolved from his rom-com and EdTV phase.
"Who's in that?”
“Burton Leon Reynolds Jr.’s in that, boys."
But the McConaissance has still been spotty at the box office.
Unfortunately, Serenity will most likely continue this trend, mostly because the movie looks…
well, indescribable.
Weird movies are fine, but they don't lead to box office glory.
And Serenity doesn't just look bizarre, it looks baffling.
The trailers defy comprehension and consequently nobody can tell what it's about.
Moviegoers want to have at least some idea what they're spending their bucks on.
Come January 25th, it probably won't be Serenity.
On the plus side, its competition that weekend seems pretty light, but it's also going up
against the second weekend of M. Night Shyamalan's much-anticipated Glass.
That movie is about as mainstream as it gets and is a case study in how to market strange
material.
So no matter how much fun in the sun Serenity offers, its outlook doesn't look bright.
Terminator, Titanic, and Avatar auteur James Cameron is producing Alita: Battle Angel,
a long-gestating sci-fi adventure based on the famous post-apocalyptic manga.
Meanwhile, director duties go to former indie darling turned Spy Kids creator Robert Rodriguez,
who's helming the $200 million film adaptation.
If you're getting a Last Airbender or Ghost in the Shell vibe from the trailers, you're
not alone.
Airbender made money.
Ghost, not so much.
Alita seems more like the latter, with its PG-13 rating likely to turn off fans of the
violent source material, while doing nothing to lure in kiddos.
"You made the biggest mistake of your life."
There's also Rodriguez, whose last film was 2014's mega-turkey Sin City: A Dame To Kill
For.
Rodriguez is notorious for stretching a dollar.
He made his first movie, El Mariachi, for just $7,000.
But this movie's budget is about 28,000 times that.
It's one thing for your movie to make money because it was so cheap to produce.
It's a whole different ballgame to turn a profit on a $200 million investment.
Chances are, you can look for this to bomb stateside when it hits theaters on February
14, with producers hoping it'll perform well overseas.
And if not, at least James Cameron has his four Avatar sequels to look forward to.
So Captive State looks tremendous.
Clever concept.
Compelling visuals.
John Goodman.
Vera Farmiga.
Any one of those is enough to earn our money.
Even so, it may not be enough to make this blend of horror and sci-fi action a hit, and
you can blame it on scheduling.
Captive State was bumped from August 2018 back to March 29th, 2019, where it will go
up directly against Tim Burton's Dumbo, the first of many Disney live-action remakes next
year.
Captive State has a great pedigree in Rise of the Planet of the Apes' director Rupert
Wyatt, but high-concept sci-fi is hit or miss.
For every District 9 or 10 Cloverfield Lane, there's a Jupiter Ascending or City of a Thousand
Planets.
"Federal agent on duty.
Leave me alone."
Sci-fi's a risky bet even under the best conditions but against Tim Burton and an adorable flying
elephant?
That's tough.
Captive State may have a chance at counter-programming, but only if it's really good.
We've all been burned by incredible trailers for bland movies, so hopefully Captive State
won't follow that trend.
"You and I both know those days are gone."
Beware of Oscar-bait movies that come out in the spring.
As a general rule, Oscar season usually starts in the fall.
With the notable exception of Best Picture winner Crash, springtime "message movies"
rarely make a dent in the public consciousness, let alone the box office.
Take The Best of Enemies, for example.
Slated for an April 5th release, the film is about a civil rights activist played by
Taraji P. Henson who co-chairs a community meeting about school desegregation with a
KKK leader played by Sam Rockwell.
Surprising nobody, the experience changes both of their lives.
It sounds like either a really saccharine made-for-TV movie or a really twisted SNL
skit, but it's actually based on a true story.
Henson recently starred in the Oscar-nominated blockbuster Hidden Figures, as well as the
award-winning hit TV show Empire.
Rockwell, meanwhile, recently snagged an Oscar for his supporting role in Three Billboards
Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and has consistently proven himself as a versatile character actor.
Hopefully the star power will be enough to give The Best of Enemies a fighting chance
at the box office.
But more likely, The Best of Enemies will disappear from theaters just as fast as every
other "awards contender" released in April.
The New Mutants is about a group of teenage mutant superheroes who aren't turtles, so
that's already a huge mark against it.
Not helping matters is the confused genre-splicing of horror and superhero action in what will
be the 13th film in 20th Century Fox's X-Men franchise.
Take a moment to consider how much of your life you've spent watching X-Men movies.
To its credit, the series hasn't been overly cautious about about mixing genres.
The comedy-superhero hybrid Deadpool spinoffs have made millions at the domestic box office,
and are the highest-grossing films in the entire X-Men franchise.
But those films had a huge plus factor in their favor people actually wanted to see
them.
"Join us - use your powers for good.
heads up!
Be a superhero!"
The reception for The New Mutants was much more muted.
The incredibly dark, murky and dread-filled trailer even had some fans mockingly saying
it looks like a DCEU movie, which are fighting words in the superhero genre.
Is there really an appetite for a Hostel-esque X-Men movie?
Not long ago, Will Smith could star in a dog shampoo commercial and it would be a surefire
hit.
But a string of bad, bland, and just plain bizarre choices has damaged the Fresh Prince's
bankability — and perhaps more importantly, his credibility.
Which brings us to Gemini Man, which is being helmed by Ang Lee.
More importantly, it reunites Smith with his Bad Boys and Enemy of the State producer,
Jerry Bruckheimer.
"Now back up, put the gun down, and get me a pack of tropical fruit Bubblicious."
The story an older hitman faces off against a young clone of himself sounds like a lazy
Looper ripoff, except Gemini Man was in development for 20 years before being greenlit.
Maybe there was a reason for that?
It certainly feels like a movie that would have been fresh in 1997.
Gemini Man won't light the box office on fire, but should at least get plenty of play on
basic cable.
Because when it comes to movies, there is life after death.
It's called the TNT network.
Here's the latest attempt to get the Terminator franchise back on track.
You're probably thinking "Wait, another one?
Didn't Terminator: Whatever bomb?"
It did.
Terminator: Genisys was a dud in 2015… in the U.S., anyway.
It made enough overseas to justify another trip to the post-apocalypse.
Every new Terminator movie is basically another attempt to resurrect
an aimless franchise.
Honestly, the most interesting thing this series could do is send the T-800 back in
time to stop these movies from being made.
And that's exactly what it sounds like is going happen.
T6 is supposed to be a direct sequel to T2, with Rise of the Machines, Salvation, Genisys
and The Sarah Connor Chronicles wiped from history.
You can do that with a time-travel movie, right?
Linda Hamilton is even returning as Sarah Connor, and James Cameron is producing and
contributing to the story.
That's good enough for a little interest, and hopefully it will be enough to save this
film from bombing harder than Judgement Day.
Big-screen musical adaptations are pretty hit-or-miss at the box office.
Sure, Chicago did pretty well financially, but you can't say the same for Rock of Ages
or Rent.
And while Andrew Lloyd Webber is one of the most bankable names on Broadway and the West
End, his film record isn't nearly as impressive.
Could Cats end that string of box office blandness?
It's based on one of his most popular musicals, and features perhaps his most famous song,
"Memory."
However, his most popular musical, and Broadway's longest-running show, was the Phantom of the
Opera, which only scared up $51 million and change in U.S. theaters.
There's also the fact it's coming out on December 20th, 2019, the same day as a quiet little
indie drama currently known as Star Wars: Episode IX.
With that kind of box office competition, chances are slim that crowds will show up
to watch a bunch of dancing cats.