This video demonstrates the Island Energy Scenario Tool developed for the Department
of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy's Technology-to-Market
program.
The scenario tool is designed to help energy managers on various islands determine the
best options for reaching their clean-energy goals.
The tool works by having the user set up an electricity demand-and-supply scenario for
a grid or set of grids using various energy technologies such as conventional fossil fuels
and renewable generation.
The tool can support up to five locations, or grids.
This is an important feature for modeling island scenarios, which might have one or
more small grids.
The tool provides a comparative analysis among different scenarios in terms of the cost and
level of generation required by each technology to meet demand—and reveals which generation
resources are the best investments for the long term.
Users of the tool will need to input a lot of data initially, but once data for the first
scenario is added, the tool allows scenarios to be copied.
This makes creating additional scenarios less time-consuming.
Before using the tool, it is important to understand all the data that is required to
create a scenario.
This video offers a step-by-step tutorial so that you can use the tool effectively.
Let’s get started.
We will now open the tool, beginning at the Scenario Details screen, which features the
main menu and serves as the starting point for using the Island Energy Scenario Tool.
On this screen, users can create a new scenario, copy and modify an existing scenario, review
an existing scenario, and delete scenarios.
Please note the left-hand navigation, which allows users to toggle between each tab in
the tool.
The first step on the Scenario Details screen is to either create a new scenario or copy
an existing scenario using the text boxes, drop-down menus, and buttons here at the top
of this form.
When an existing scenario is copied or opened for review, all of its existing data will
populate on all data entry screens.
On this screen you can also delete scenarios.
Please note that the Delete Scenario button removes the entire scenario, including all
data entry on the subsequent tabs, from the Scenario Tool.
This deletion is permanent.
The second step is to determine the scenario duration.
All scenarios are assumed to start in 2014 and can extend a maximum of 30 years, or until
2044.
Your next step is to select the number of locations to model in this scenario.
Each scenario comprises one to five locations, and each location must represent a distinct
electric grid.
For each location, you must also enter spinning reserves, which are added to total demand,
the clean energy target for the end of the scenario, and the renewable portfolio standard
target for the end of the scenario.
In the Scenario Tool, clean energy is defined as the combination of renewable energy generation
and reductions in demand due to energy efficiency.
After entering the data in this section, click the “Save Scenario Inputs and Locations”
button.
Your next step is to select the energy resource types to use in this scenario.
Both conventional and renewable sources are available.
Custom energy resources can be used for new technologies or to model projects that have
different capacity factors.
After selecting the renewable and non-renewable energy resources to be used for the scenario,
click the “Save Scenario Energy Types” button to save.
Next, go to the Shared Resources tab.
This allows an energy resource to be shared by multiple locations or grids—for example,
to model an undersea cable project connecting the grids of two islands where a wind project
on one grid is supplying a percentage of its power to another grid.
Only custom energy resources can be modeled as shared resources.
You can skip this tab if you have no shared resources.
Always click the save button before proceeding to the next tab.
We will now review the Baseline Inputs tab, where you will input three types of baseline
demand data for each location: projected electricity demand, energy efficiency, and electric vehicle
demand forecast.
Projected electricity demand data provides the foundation for demand calculations, and
energy efficiency is modeled as a reduction in that demand.
Electric vehicle forecast data is optional and can be left blank.
Baseline data can also be copied from previously saved scenarios using the “Copy Baseline
Data from existing scenario” menu.
This list of scenarios includes scenarios with locations that match the selected location.
Baseline data can also be created by inputting a starting value and then automatically increasing
over the duration of the scenario using the “Apply percentage increase over scenario”
check box and accompanying percentage data field below.
We will now move to the Resource Potential tab.
Resource potential is defined as the maximum generation level, in megawatts, that theoretically
could be installed for each energy resource.
In the Island Energy Scenario Tool, resource potentials serve as the ceiling for each energy
resource and must be set for each location and energy resource combination.
The tool will not allow a scenario to add more generation supply than the resource potential
established for each generation technology.
Data can also be copied from previously saved scenarios that include the same location.
The next tab requires the entry of capacity factors.
Capacity factors represent the maximum electric output a plant can generate under specific
conditions and are used to account for variations in generation profiles across technologies.
In the Island Energy Scenario Tool, capacity factors are percentages applied to the nameplate
capacity of generation projects.
The tool allows you to set up different capacity factors for the same technology using the
custom energy resource types set up on the scenario details tab.
For example, if a wind project in one location has a higher capacity factor than another
location, you can set up a custom energy type and apply the capacity factor in this table.
The next step in entering scenario data is to enter renewable generation project information
into the Renewable Generation Project Inputs tab.
Projects are added to the scenario one by one using the “Add Generation Project”
button, and more projects can be added or deleted at any point.
You need to specify a name, energy resource used, the year the project came online, and
the nameplate capacity.
To model project renovations or expansions, you can also add a one-time increase in project
installed capacity during the scenario using these fields.
For residential and commercial solar, the Island Energy Scenario Tool allows you to
create an incremental increase in the levels of penetration over the scenario.
Simply enter a starting capacity and an ending capacity, and the tool will distribute the
increase evenly over the time period using the “automatically increase to meet target”
radio button.
Unlike renewable generation, non-renewable generation is modeled as the total amount
of generation rather than as projects.
On the Non-Renewable Generation Capacity screen shown here, you can enter data in two tables
that capture the total amount of all non-renewable generation capacity and the distribution of
that capacity across fuel types.
In the “Non-Renewable Generation over Scenario Duration” table, the user enters the total
combined amount of non-renewable generation at each location in the scenario.
The user can also use the “Use Non-Renewable Generation to meet demand” checkbox to automatically
calculate the difference between annual electricity demand and supply met by renewable generation
projects.
The second table for non-renewable generation data enables you to enter the allocation of
the fossil generation that is from each energy type.
The percentage of the total allocation to that type must be entered, and the total must
equal one hundred percent.
The Island Energy Scenario Tool also allows you to change the distribution over the length
of the scenario.
The “Use constant distribution over scenario duration” checkbox above this table can
be checked to speed up data entry and use the same distribution for each year of the
scenario.
You will enter all financial data for the energy resources used in the scenario from
the Financial Data tab, which brings up the Financial Inputs screen shown here.
Similar to the other data entry screens, financial data is entered for each location in the scenario
individually.
However, once data for a single location has been entered, that data can be copied to the
other locations in the scenario using the “Copy Financial Inputs to All Locations”
button.
The next category of costs on the Financial Inputs screen is fuel data.
The fuel costs entered here are used to calculate the total cost of fuel consumption for the
scenario.
All of the fuel types used in the scenario will populate automatically so that you can
input the associated cost.
There are several units of measure available in this drop-down menu, and a fuel escalation
percentage can also be applied if you want to reflect rising fuel prices over the scenario
duration.
The third category of costs captured on the Financial Inputs screen is energy efficiency.
Costs for energy efficiency are entered as a cost per megawatt hour of avoided demand.
You can also apply the same cost to each year of the analysis using the “Use constant
cost of energy efficiency in scenario” box above the table.
The fourth and final financial data type entered on this screen is investments in grid upgrades.
You can model these costs as flat additional costs, and they can be incurred every year
of the scenario or only for years you specify.
The Scenario Dashboard tab displays the status of data entry for the scenario and shows all
output metrics.
The information on this screen is read-only and shows data that has been entered and saved
previously.
You’ll want to pay attention to the Data Requirements table, which shows the status
of data entry for the scenario.
Red circles in the table indicate missing data, yellow circles indicate incomplete data,
and green circles indicate that data entry is complete.
The first table on the Scenario Dashboard shows the scenario start year and duration
for reference.
The second table shows the clean energy and renewable portfolio standard targets for each
location and for the scenario overall, as well as the actual percentage for each.
This dashboard also gives you the ability to run reports, which are spreadsheet downloads
of all the data shown in this dashboard.
Below the Scenario Energy Targets table is a drop-down menu that controls the view of
the tables below it.
This menu allows you to view the output metrics as scenario totals or as an individual view
for each location.
The Electricity Demand and Supply table shows a number of summary metrics including the
projected demand, energy efficiency, fossil fuel energy supply, renewable energy supply,
and more.
The Distribution by Energy Resource table shows supply and cost outputs for each of
the energy resource types in the scenario.
Below these tables are two charts that display the energy distribution for the scenario and
the amount of total supply over the duration of the scenario.
Using the radio buttons above the pie chart, which shows the distribution of energy types
for the final year of the scenario, you can select all energy types, renewable energy
only, or non-renewable energy only.
In the area chart, energy efficiency is displayed as having a negative impact on demand.
The final table on the scenario dashboard shows supply and cost outputs, separated by
new projects and existing projects, for the scenario.
As with the other tables on the dashboard, the financial details table can be viewed
for the entire scenario or for an individual location using the drop-down menu toward the
top of
the screen.
This concludes our demonstration of the Island Energy Scenario Tool.
We hope that it has helped you understand the data you will need to create a scenario
and use the tool successfully.
In addition to watching this video, we recommend that you reference the tool’s user guide,
which is also available on this Web page.