Let’s talk about US sanctions on Iran
because the US president keeps piling them on.
Powerful sanctions will go into full effect.
but Iran isn’t bowing.
Now, according to this online tracker
America has more sanctions against Iran
than it does on North Korea, Cuba
Venezuela and Libya combined.
So what exactly are those sanctions
and more importantly, are they working?
The big picture is this:
the US and Iran are, in a way, at war.
States like these and their terrorist allies
constitute an axis of evil.
But they don’t fight face to face
Instead, they antagonise each other.
Iran gets involved in conflicts around the Middle East
by backing armed groups and US rivals like Russia.
And the US's main weapon?
Sanctions.
Now the simple definition of a sanction is:
“an official order, taken against a country
in order to make it obey international law.”
That could include bans on travel, transactions or trade.
And in Iran’s case, it’s all of those.
Any kind of exchange that directly or indirectly
might benefit the Iranian government or any agency of it
or any individual who may directly or indirectly be
affiliated with it is prohibited under American law.
Now we’ve read the US Treasury’s blacklist for Iran
and it is long.
The big ones are: a ban on Iran’s biggest industry
which is oil
and a ban on any kind of financial transactions with Iran.
Plus its entire steel, mining, coal sectors
dozens of individual people and ministries in Iran’s government
banks, insurance, construction companies
ships and aircraft.
There’s even a ban on Persian carpets
one of Iran’s biggest exports
and its pistachio industry.
Now, the penalties for violating those sanctions are serious.
The US government can fine a person or company up to $1 million
or hand down a 20 year jail sentence.
Even if they’re not American.
Because the US has such a strong dollar
and so many transactions are conducted in dollars
it means that US sanctions
would affect any EU company doing business with Iran.
Between having sanctions on its main industries
and being blocked from trading with other countries
Iran has become one of the most isolated economies in the world.
So when did this sanctions war start?
More than 40 years ago.
The US long supported Iran’s monarch the Shah
but in 1979, the Islamic Revolution swept
cleric Ayatollah Khomeini to power.
A group of Iranian revolutionaries stormed the US embassy
and imprisoned its staff for over a year.
That led to the very first round of sanctions on Iran
with the US freezing billions of dollars in Iranian government assets.
and it was just the beginning.
Over the next several decades, Iran came under more
international sanctions over human rights abuses.
Iran was also sanctioned for sending billions of dollars
to armed groups in the Middle East
like Hezbollah in Lebanon, or Hamas in Palestine.
But it was Iran’s decision to develop nuclear power
that really got the US worried
because Iran now had the tools to build a nuclear bomb.
Since 2003, a nuclear crisis has been brewing between Iran
the United States and its European allies
when it was revealed that Iran has two nuclear
facilities that it did not declare to the IAEA.
So in 2011, the US together with the UN issued
a massive heap of economic sanctions on Iran
to (a) stop any money flowing to its nuclear programme
and (b) to pressure Iran into potentially striking a diplomatic deal.
And that part worked.
In 2015, after long and tough negotiations, a deal known as
the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was signed.
“A historic deal.”
“The landmark nuclear agreement will mean that Iran
has to sharply curtail its nuclear programme.”
“The Iranian foreign minister receives a hero’s welcome back in Tehran.
International sanctions against Iran will now be lifted.”
We've achieved this historic progress through diplomacy
without resorting to another war in the Middle East.
But the truth is that many US lawmakers
Republicans in particular
didn’t trust Iran would keep its end of the deal.
Neither did one of America’s closest allies.
Iran's rulers promised to destroy my country.
Murder my people.
Perhaps you can now understand why Israel
is not joining you in celebrating this deal.
So as soon as Donald Trump became president, he backed out.
I am announcing today that the United States
will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.
All the old sanctions came back.
And more than 700 new ones were issued against
Iranian individuals and companies.
It’s what the Trump administration
calls its “maximum pressure campaign."
So when people ask:
has the US sanctions programme worked on Iran?
Well, that’s debatable.
These new sanctions have nearly killed the entire Iran nuclear deal.
And in response, the Iranians have said:
Well, what’s the point of us holding up our end?
So they’ve now restarted some low-level nuclear activity.
And they will probably continue to do so until the EU takes action
to deliver on some of their commitments
which they are not able to deliver because of US pressure.
The eventual outcome could be an Iran withdrawal
from the nuclear accord and also the death of the whole deal.
Sanctions have managed to cripple Iran’s economy.
But Iranians are getting around them.
“Human mules have carried smuggled
goods across the border for years.
Electronics, phones, beauty products
medicines, cigarettes, the list goes on.”
Long years of sanctions have led the Iranians to develop many
of their own domestic products inside that have substituted
for those things that they can’t bring in.
When sanctions come, there’s a dip.
And then, somehow, the economy starts reacting
and responding and compensating
and within three or four years, it’s back to growth.
Another question is whether Iran’s government
can survive many more years of instability.
Don’t get me wrong, it still has a lot of support.
But recent protests across Iranian cities have
exposed some discontent with those in power.
“Anger, frustration and growing concern in Tehran.”
The protests erupted after Iran’s government
which has been strapped for cash
increased the price of fuel to raise funds.
In November, thousands of people were arrested
rights groups say more than 300 were killed
and at one point, there was a total internet shutdown.
Iran’s leaders say they were responding to a bigger threat.
The bottom line is: it’s not clear whether the US’s huge web of sanctions
is going to lead to any kind of breakthrough with Iran.
And there’s a whole debate about whether those pressure tactics
have ever forced any big changes in places like Cuba or North Korea
where sanctions have been around for decades.
Those who defend sanctions say the alternative is an actual war.
But neither the US nor Iran, nor anybody else seem to want that.