litecoin it stood the test of time and if i'm gonna make a bet what's going to be here 10
years down the road that's gonna be bitcoin and then it's gonna be litecoin number two
welcome back everybody to altcoin daily my name is aaron joined with my brother austin and today we
have on the legendary this guy is a ta expert he's got a great youtube channel his name is tom crown
he's bullish on bitcoin i believe he believes litecoin is undervalued he's going to give us his
long-term projections at least you know year-long or end-to-cycle projections for bitcoin litecoin
but we're talking about the whole market today tom crown how are you doing today what's up man thanks
for having me guys this is awesome you're you're both amazing thank you so much yeah i appreciate
that appreciate that dude you're amazing as well now besides expert trader i mean is that how you
introduce yourself that's how i know you but give us an introduction for the audience a guy with
sunglasses man i love charts i love crypto and that's that's pretty much it i'm pretty simple
cool cool now before we jump into stuff i guess just big picture what is your
current thoughts on the state of the market today just anything that interests you in
the market today how do you think about it i think it's right right where it needs to
be you know we've had some exciting times we've had some boring times and it's really the boring
times i weed out i feel like the weekends and i think that's why we're experiencing
a lot of a lot of 20 21 and uh i'm i'm still absolutely bullish i don't see any reason why
people would be looking forward to bear market out of nowhere or something like that don't know
it isn't that isn't that when bear markets show up out of nowhere ah crap well yeah you got me
guys if you appreciate us keeping it real smash that like button let's get this video out there
to as many people as possible and again before we jump into the charts uh just one more question tom
are you purely a trader or do you huddle coins as well is there coins that you believe in for longer
periods of time yeah of course i i think everyone in the space really should be splitting up what
they're doing i don't think there's one perfect path i think that maybe that perfect path is a
combination of everything you know you're looking for a little maybe some staking or apy yielding
you're doing some trading and then i think the part that new traders miss is the holding part
that is that is the biggest part you don't have to have your entire portfolio sitting doing
nothing but you should have something that's really what my thoughts not have always been
excellent excellent and everybody's different just because you hold something doesn't mean
i should hold it but for the folks at home who are wondering which coins do you hold
that you don't mind sharing in your opinion long-term holds yeah i'm a bit of like an
unorthodox bitcoin maximalist um my goal is to get more bitcoin but i do have coins that i like as
well and that's pretty broadly defined by anything proof of work that has a natural fair origin um
here it comes here comes guys litecoin one of my favorites fits that description it has a very long
block chain it stood the test of time and so that has an umbrella of coins underneath it but at the
end of the day i'm really in them for their growth and so that i can use that to acquire more bitcoin
i like that let's jump into the charts let's start with bitcoin then we'll get on to litecoin
here's how i see bitcoin first off you gotta put your chart on log this is not a useful chart it
looks like essentially bitcoin never did anything for years and then all of a sudden had a little
bump and now we're out in space so when we put it on the logarithmic chart i think we can see kind
of the true nature of bitcoin and this is how i view it this is how i view the cycle burn now
previous cycles and probably cycles going forward
by essentially measuring in price and time there's two dimensions on our chart
and there's more than one way to measure really what's happening in bitcoin a lot of
people are stuck on the lows to highs so let's say 2015-2017 and that's what they're looking for now
they're looking for where's the next cycle top i think that's a great question but it needs to be
answered in different ways and this might look a little weird but there's what i'm trying to imply
here is we can measure a cycle from the lows so this arrow from low to low in 2015 to 2018 from
low to high 2015 2017 or from high to high and my entire career really on youtube i've
been saying the same thing is i'm looking for essentially the same move i can guarantee it's
not going to be exactly the same but i think it's the best model that we have and the best
thing that we can use to guesstimate or at least take a swing at where we might be in the future
this is a little lot probably a lot to process at once but essentially what this
is is doing all of those measurements so if we look at our 2014 to 2017 high to high move
we have about a fifteen hundred percent that's what i'm looking for now from 20k
uh the same is true from low to low it's 163 dollars to three thousand one hundred dollars
and that's uh eighteen hundred percent gain uh if we do the simple math on it and apply those same
percents i've been looking for this three hundreds probably three hundred just level and then i'd
expect to see a same retracement that we've seen time and time again which is roughly 84 85
so my views on bitcoin is we have not seen the parabolic leg we're looking for that real run-up
and we may end up in a bear market retracing back to around these levels i would say 61 to maybe 50
000. that's really the long-term view that i've held on bitcoin now for years so i think i'm
just going to stick to it now tom uh take me back to that first chart if you would
absolutely perfect very i love the perspective super interesting for this one specifically
how come it has to repeat like if it's only happened once how come it has to do the exact
thing again of course i think that's even an argument of why you know it we guarantee
it isn't the exact same but i don't see really a reason to use any other guide if that makes sense
so we only have this example here that's what happened in the last uh seven years now um and so
instead of kind of just guessing you know i've heard i've been in bitcoin forever it feels like
and every year i always hear bitcoin can't do this it can't go to this height it can't fall
this far and people really at the end of the day are just making up numbers you know i can't see
it being over a hundred thousand so it can't at every single time i've heard anything in with that
rhetoric it's been proven wrong and so i feel that the best way to do it is approach it from
what happened before look for it again and then we can plan our trading or investing around that
excellent so look tom i'm a simple man i buy i hold i sometimes sell let's just break this down
real simple for me so you're talking about this cycle you believe bitcoin is going to touch 300
000 i believe that it's very likely very likely using your you know the bottoms of the next bear
market you believe that where we are right now is right around where bitcoin will bottom out
in the eventual bear market yup wouldn't that be wonderful just the biggest prank on all of us
yeah what what probability would you get it give it because obviously i mean nobody nothing's 100
but just in your opinion probability oh the probability of it playing out exactly the way
i'm looking at it i'd say zero there's just no way to know uh price discovery highs and lows
it i don't think there's anyone on the planet that knows exactly where bitcoin will stop
but i think i can say that people aiming for maybe a hundred thousand
it just doesn't fit what we've seen that would be only a 5x from our previous all-time high
that that really is dwarfed by any other four-year period in bitcoin um
it just doesn't fit the chart that we've seen and so i'm going to keep looking for this
and i don't plan on doing nothing until then but i do
think it is wise for people to create a plan where they're using this as a guide
and instead of saying i'm selling everything at this exact price which never comes or it comes
and you get just suckered blows past um you can slowly wade in and out and this is how i do most
of my trading it's very slow uh very swing tradish where i'm just leaning kind of in each direction
against the market as it goes up i'm taking profit because as it goes down i'm rebuying my positions
excellent my final question on bitcoin as we wrap up bitcoin and then i want to transition over to
litecoin is we named a price target do you have a time target bitcoin cycle could last in this
range yeah that's where it gets really rough too you know we saw almost exactly four years
last time from high to high and so that would mean by end of year we should see another high
there's been a lot of talk about extending uh length cycles i think there's probably some merit
to that but it would be out of i think it would be out of the probability that it is beyond maybe q1
or q2 of next year excellent tom let's transition to litecoin i know you're a huge litecoin bull
oh yeah i love it i love it first of all what's the secret what's the secret to thinking about
litecoin it's basically anything fundamental or you're just taking a look at the price chart and
you trust that the fundamentals are there that this will continue being valued well i am a
big chart guy i i'd put that first but litecoin for me crypto it is a new type of real uh with
verification you know this is a new type of real we haven't experienced and the history of that
of that reality of that verification i think is important and litecoin is honestly the only
or is the second oldest traded asset at the moment i don't believe any of its precursor
predecessors are still trading um and that's important to me it stood the test of time and if
i'm going to make a bet what's going to be here 10 years down the road that's going to be bitcoin and
then it's going to be litecoin number two okay so what are we looking at how undervalued is litecoin
so this chart here is litecoin versus bitcoin's value this has been used against me a lot lately
um deja vu on that but uh it's been used a lot a lot against me saying litecoin you know this
is never going to go up well i've heard that about every coin i i really like these bitcoin
value charts because they show you not the change in dollars so most people think of coins
in dollar value a lot of the older investors we think of coins in terms of bitcoin value
when we look at litecoin's chart we see that even right now it's at basically historic lows a lot
of the new coins that came out this year and a few of the older ones have made actually new all-time
highs in value against bitcoin if we're using our heads here and we're thinking i want to buy low
do you want to buy something that's near its historic low valuation
against bitcoin or at its highest evaluation against bitcoin i think the answer is obvious
low so how undervalued is litecoin uh what are your thoughts uh at the moment
let's see uh it's currently trading one litecoin cost zero zero three ish bitcoin and to return
to its highest valuation that would be zero two or point zero two five and so that would
suggest maybe close to ninety percent well let me ask you this tom i'm seeing i love how you're
using measuring it the value against bitcoin if i'm looking just in 2021 up to 2022 i'm seeing
lower highs i'm not saying it can't it can't break that but could you see it going past you know that
where we saw it at the beginning of 2021 around 0.07 or 8 for this cycle of 0.07 or 8.007.
hey don't get me excited um i could honestly we i don't think this is a super bullish looking
chart yet yeah that is that is like kind of the universal thing in crypto is as soon as
things look the worst is when they turn around when they look the best is when they turn around
can i see it returning to lowe's here uh yeah i could even see this technically
trading even lower you know the traded pair here saw some liquidity issues many years ago
and we have wix down to crazy prices across exchanges so i think it's totally possible
but when we're dealing with probability i think it is much better to bet here
betting on a move to the upside than it is to bet on exploring kind of new
lows in valuation especially with a coin that does have active development and it really is
and has functioned as a test net for bitcoin for years there's a lot of uh big characters involved
so let's get to a litecoin price prediction how many because you let's look at a bitcoin and then
we can just think about it or in us dollars and we can just times it by the current price of litecoin
but how many x percentage gains do you think litecoin will hit or in us dollars what price
that's a spicy one um so we could measure that makes total sense to measure it against bitcoin
and then say well if i think bitcoin is going to 300 000 and litecoin is going to return to its
valuation or its previous uh high valuations would that put it at um a lot a lot i don't think if the
answer is going to be that simple i think that if we're going to look at the usd pair the best
way to do it is to use a technical analysis tool that we use all the time which is the fibonacci
extension tool or retracement and extension tools if we place it here using 420s 2018 high and uh
the 2018 bear market low at 22 we actually can see some pretty crazy upside targets on litecoin uh
people may still think this is i think i'm crazy for saying this but we do this on my streams and
on my channel all the time and we have just seen the impossible happen when we break these all-time
high resistances and enterprise discovery crypto does have a knack of just exploding on us right
uh our extension tool here is suggesting that if we break our high the price discovery will seek
out the one six one eight and that's currently at two thousand five hundred eighty six dollars
i still think that there is potential for more upside than that i don't wanna get everyone too
excited but i could see like coin trading closer to eight thousand at a bull market cycle peak
wow that would be that would be crazy crazier things have happened um i really appreciate you
sharing this perspective that is a 32x by the way from here oh yeah well it the math gets crazier
because if we consider the possibility of litecoin breaking its valuation against bitcoin there's one
kind of logical price point that we would look for and we don't have to use the chart to do it
what we do is basically look at litecoin and say its max supply is four times that four times that
of bitcoin and so we could look and say well maybe against bitcoin's value it could be 0.25 that
would be an insane gain i'm not going to think or i'm not going to claim that's a very likely
possibility but i think that something closer to the 0.1 range is in the realm of possibility
the question if it didn't do that in 2017 and if arguably litecoin was more relevant in 2017
like would you could you see it breaking past that valuation against bitcoin
in 2022 the founder has no more coins to sell exactly he's out he's out
everyone i love charlie lee everybody hates on him because he was a great trader
yeah i mean dude he's the only one who was honest about it all the other founders just sold secretly
i love it i had an interview with him great guy all right let's take us off the screen share and
we'll wrap it up tom crown the great the man the legend thank you so much for being on the stream
today everybody from our audience i encourage you to go click through that link in the description
give tom a chance give him a sub see what he's all about tom final thoughts for our altcoin
daily audience ah well thank you guys so much for having me your community is awesome uh final
thoughts is you know we have these big eyes in a bull market and the impossible does happen
we've seen it happen but we need to manage our risk and we need to limit our losses and make sure
we're not investing more than we can afford to lose and i think if you follow those simple rules
you'll do great sage advice thank you thank you so much for being on today thank you guys