AS PRICES WERE GOING UP A TAD
MORE THAN THAT.
THE READ RIGHT NOW, FOR JASON FU
RMAN, THE FORMER
BARACK OBAMA ECONOMIC COUNCIL
CHAIRMAN, ALSO HARVARD PROFESSOR
JASON, GOOD TO HAVE YOU.
I CAUGHT YOUR COMMENTS, I THINK
IT WAS IN THE WASHINGTON POST
TODAY, WHERE YOU SUMMED IT UP I
THINK PRETTY NICELY, WHERE AT
THIS WEIRD MOMENT, WHERE YOU
SORT OF WANT THE ECONOMY TO SLOW
, YOU JUST DON’T WANT IT TO
GO INTO REVERSE.
WELL IF THE RETAIL SALES NUMBERS
ARE TO BE BELIEVED AND THEY
STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE, IT’S
NOT GOING INTO REVERSE.
HOW LONG DO YOU THINK THAT LASTS
>> YOU KNOW, I DON’T KNOW.
IT’S A STRANGE ECONOMY RIGHT NOW
INFLATION IS TERRIBLE BUT
CONSUMERS ARE CONTINUING TO
SPEND MONEY, IN PART, MONEY THEY
HAD SAVED UP FROM THE LAST YEAR
OR TWO, THE STIMULUS CHECKS AND
OTHER THINGS.
WHERE IT GOES, I DON’T KNOW, BUT
WE NEED TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
ABOUT BRINGING INFLATION DOWN.
NEIL: YOU’VE ALSO SAID THOUGH,
THAT THE STAGFLATION THREAT
LEVEL, SO MUCH THAT WE ASSOCIATE
WITH THE CARTER YEARS, IS THE
HIGHEST IN A LONG TIME, AND
I’M WONDERING IF YOU SEE THAT
HAPPENING, WHERE THE ECONOMY
SLOWS, PRICES RISE, WE’RE
CERTAINLY AT THE POINT WHERE
PRICES ARE RISING, THAT’S NOT
DISPUTED, BUT THE ECONOMY IS
REMARKABLY HOLDING UP FAIRLY
WELL.
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT?
>> YEAH, I MEAN, THE ECONOMY IS
GOING TO SLOW, OF COURSE.
LAST YEAR, IT GREW 5.5% THAT WAS
BECAUSE IT WAS COMING OUT OF A
DEEP HOLE.
THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DOES IT
SLOW?
NEIL: BUT IF THIS IS A
CONTRACTION, I’M SORRY JUST WANT
TO BE CLEAR, IF WE HAVE A
CONTRACTING QUARTER, JASON, THE
QUARTER WE JUST FINISHED,
THAT WOULD REACH FOR SOME THE
TECHNICAL DEFINITION OF
RECESSION.
YOU’VE HAD BACK TO BACK NEGATIVE
QUARTERS.
DO YOU SEE THAT?
>> WE DID NOT HAVE A RECESSION
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THIS YEAR.
EVEN IF WE HAD TWO NEGATIVE GDP
PRINTS, JOB GROWTH WAS
INCREDIBLY STRONG, CONSUMER
SPENDING WAS DECENT, SOME OF
THOSE NUMBERS MAY ULTIMATELY BE
REVISED.
NOW, I CAN’T GIVE YOU AN ANSWER
FOR WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN IN
THE NEXT SIX MONTHS.
I’M A LITTLE BIT LESS WORRIED
ABOUT THE NEXT SIX MONTHS THAN I
AM ABOUT THE NEXT YEAR.
IT TAKES A WHILE FOR THE FEDS
POLICY TO HAVE AN EFFECT AND
THAT POLICY IS DEFINITELY
CONTRACTION AND STARTING TO WORK
ITS WAY THROUGH THE ECONOMY.
I DON’T THINK THOUGH QUITE YET
TO A RECESSION, BUT I’M NOT SURE
NEIL: YOU KNOW, MUCH HAS BEEN
MADE, JASON, ABOUT THE FORMER
TOP ECONOMIC OFFICIALS TO
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT LARRY
SUMMERS WHO SERVED UNDER BILL
CLINTON, OF COURSE YOU SERVED
UNDER BARACK OBAMA, WHO WORRY
THAT THE ADMINISTRATION IS NOT
RESPONDING AGGRESSIVELY ENOUGH
TO THIS OR ACKNOWLEDGING THE
SEVERITY OF THE PROBLEM.
YOU DIDN’T SAY THAT OUTRIGHT,
BUT YOU DID TALK ABOUT THE WAGE
CONTRACTION GOING ON HERE, OR
THAT THE SITUATION FOR REAL
WAGE GROWTH WAS TERRIBLE.
THAT ADJUSTING FOR INFLATION,
BECAUSE WAGES ARE RUNNING UP AT
A FIVE OR 6% CLIP, BUT AS YOU
ALSO REPORTED, INFLATION IS
RUNNING AT A MUCH FASTER CLIP.
THAT’S GENERALLY NOT A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR A PRESIDENT WHO
SEEKS A SECOND TERM.
>> YEAH, I’M NOT A POLITICAL
SCIENTIST BUT LOOK THIS IS WHAT
SHOULD BE DONE ON INFLATION.
THE FED SHOULD MOVE AGGRESSIVELY
TO RAISE RATES.
THE ADMINISTRATION SHOULD DO
WHAT IT CAN, FOR EXAMPLE,
REDUCING TARIFFS ON THINGS
COMING FROM CHINA.
CONGRESS SHOULD DO WHAT IT CAN.
IT SHOULD PASS DEFICIT-REDUCING
LEGISLATION.
NEIL: AND I TAKE IT BY THAT, YOU
DON’T MEAN NEW SPENDING, RIGHT?
YOU DON’T MEAN SOME OF THE
THINGS THAT FOR EXAMPLE, JOE
MANCHIN SHOT DOWN.
>> LOOK IF YOU WANT TO RAISE A
TRILLION DOLLARS AND SPEND HALF
OF IT AND USE HALF OF IT FOR
DEFICIT REDUCTION, THAT
WOULD HELP TOO.
NEIL: BUT THEY AREN’T GOING TO
DO THAT.
>> I HOPE TO HAVE A
CONVERSATION ABOUT HOW TO, LOOK,
THERE’S THINGS WE IMMEDIATE TO
DO.
I DON’T WANT TO SEE MILLIONS OF
PEOPLE COME OFF THEIR HEALTH
INSURANCE AT THE END OF THIS
YEAR, IT’S NOT A GREAT WAY
TO CONTROL INFLATION, SO DO
OVERALL DEFICIT REDUCTION BUT DO
THINGS TO PROTECT THE PEOPLE WHO
OTHERWISE ARE MOST VULNERABLE
AND REALLY BE HEARD IF THEIR
SUBSIDIES GO AWAY.
NEIL: THERE’S BEEN A LOT OF
CRITICISM AND THIS OFTEN HAPPENS
WITH THINGS GOING WELL IN THE
ADMINISTRATION AND THE POINT
PEOPLE THEY HAVE IN CHARGE OF
THESE ECONOMIC ISSUES, JASON,
AND MUCH HAS BEEN SAID THAT THEY
NEED A SEASONED TEAM TO COME IN.
YOUR NAME COMES UP, CERTAINLY
LARRY SUMMERS NAME COMES UP.
I KNOW YOU GOT THIS VERY CUSHY
JOB AT HARVARD
AND ALL THAT STUFF.
BUT WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THAT IF
THEY ASKED YOU, CALLED YOU UP
AND SAID JASON, COULD YOU COME
OUT HERE AND HELP US OUT, YOU
WOULD SAY?
>> LOOK, I LOVE MY CURRENT JOB
SO I’M NOT MOVING TO WASHINGTON.
HE ALSO HAS EXCELLENT PEOPLE
WORKING FOR HIM.
IT’S A VERY DIFFICULT SITUATION,
BOTH ECONOMICALLY.
NEIL: DO YOU THINK THE ECONOMIC
TEAM IS EXCELLENT?
BECAUSE THAT MIGHT BE ONE WEAK
LINK IN THE WHOLE THING.
>> I THINK HE HAS A LOT OF, I
THINK HIS TOP ECONOMIC ADVISORS
ARE EXCELLENT.
THEY ARE JUST DEALING WITH A
VERY HARD SITUATION, ECONOMIC
ALLY, AND ALSO POLITICAL
LY.
IT’S HARD TO WORK WITH THIS
CONGRESS AND GET THINGS
DONE THAT YOU MIGHT WANT TO, TO
HELP, BUT I DON’T WANT TO GET
THE LACK OF TALENT.
IT’S COMPLICATED.
NEIL: A LOT OF PEOPLE SAY IT
STOPS AT JANET YELLEN, AND FROM
THERE, IT GETS WORSE.
YOU DISAGREE?
>> OH, DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL
ECONOMIC COUNCIL BRIAN DEESE IS
OUTSTANDING ONE OF THE MOST
BRILLIANT ECONOMIC MAKERS I’VE
WORKED, IS JUST EXCELLENT AND
THAT’S STANDING TOO SO I DON’T
THINK THIS IS A LACK OF QUALITY
ADVISING, THAT’S NOT, YOU KNOW,
THIS IS A REALLY REALLY
DIFFICULT SITUATION.
NEIL: BUT IF THEY’RE SO SMART
THEY SHOULD BE UP TO THE TASK.
>> I MEAN, I’M HAPPY TO KEEP
TALKING POSITIVELY ABOUT THAT.
NEIL: [LAUGHTER]
ALL RIGHT, ALL RIGHT SO THE
PRESIDENT CALLS YOU, IT
SOUNDS TO ME LIKE YOU’LL HAVE A
NICE CONVERSATION BUT THE ANSWER
BE NO.
>> I DON’T THINK HE’S CALLING
ME AND I DON’T THINK HE NEEDS TO
BUT I DO THINK SOME POLICIES
NEED TO BE, MORE POLICIES ARE
NEEDED TO COME OUT OF THEM.
NEIL: ALL RIGHT, SO
ELECTRONICALLY I’M GOING TO GIVE
YOU A FIST BUMP THANK YOU FOR