Happy Friday afternoon everybody.
I'm meteorologist Tim Pantages here
with you Atlantic Tropical update and
we've got a hurricane to talk about
Danielle strengthening this morning
to become a category one hurricane.
The first of the season and the
first hurricane in over 330 days.
It's been a long time for the Atlantic.
Today is September 2nd, 2022.
Alright, here's the season by the
numbers for your wrap up today,
332 days since there's been a
hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.
By the way, the last hurricane was category.
Or Hurricane Sam back last year.
In the 2021 season,
12 named storms up to this point in 2021.
This year we're only at four
with one hurricane.
We had five hurricanes up
through this point last year,
and there are 88 days left in the
2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
Alright,
here's our scorecard when we put the
Atlantic up against the Eastern Pacific,
which, if you've been paying attention,
the Eastern Pacific has had
a very active season so far.
They're now up to #11 Javier just developed
as a tropical storm in the eastern Pacific.
Meanwhile,
we've got category one Hurricane
Danielle to focus our attention on,
even though it's not going to be impacting.
Anybody,
which is the best part of all of this news.
The hurricane in the middle of
the open Atlantic not causing
any impacts to human beings.
75 mile an hour winds look at
the speed moving to the West.
It's basically stationary moving
to the West at one mile per hour,
992 millibars,
its pressure has dropped down to
infrared satellite imagery here over
the last couple of hours certainly shows
that it has that look of a hurricane.
Even more so when we flip around and
show you visible satellite that at
times shows an eye trying to clear
on out in the center of Danielle.
Their butts.
When I show you water vapor imagery,
something very interesting
to take note of here.
Dry air, moist air, dry air and the yellow.
Notice it getting ingested
into its circulation,
and that could be putting a stunt
on any future intensification,
at least for now,
until it can work that dry air out.
So right now it's capped at
a category 175 mile an hour.
Winds forecast to get up to
100 mile per hour.
Cat 2.
So we'll see if this dry air will
have anything to do with that.
But nonetheless,
it's still going to stay away
from any landmasses.
Closest is the Azores there,
and of course Nova Scotia and
northern portions of Greenland or
southern portions of Greenland,
but not going anywhere near that.
So here's the forecast track of
Hurricane Danielle sitting over the
same general area for about the
next 48 to even 72 hours through
almost all of Labor Day weekend.
And then it starts to build N
tops out of cat 2.
The forecast is right now at
100 mile an hour winds.
Monday morning and then starts
to build its way off
to the north, and E Windfield expands and
it gradually begins to weaken a little bit.
So why such a strong system this
far north in the Atlantic? Well,
the water temperatures in this part of the
Atlantic are actually at record high levels.
Everything shaded in red or maroon here
is water that's at 80 degrees or warmer.
And that is what's needed
for tropical development.
And this far north is very, very unusual.
Now, on top of that,
the water is at a depth. Right.
So we've got warm waters that
extend down several, you know,
dozen meters at least in this
case this far to the north.
And that means that since this is
sitting and spinning over the same area,
it's mixing up the ocean water,
something we call upwelling.
So eventually this will run out of
the heat energy here as it keeps up
well in cooler waters from a depth.
But it's got a little bit to work with
there until it starts to drift its way
north and out of that upper ocean heat
content that's currently in that area.
So one of the models see with this
the GFS and the European model.
Both are pretty much right on target,
right on top of each other of this storm,
intensifying a little bit more in the
next couple days and then drifting
its way off into the North Atlantic,
maybe even up towards the Arctic
Circle by the time we get to the end.
Of next week,
so no threat to any land at the moment.
So now we've got to invest 91 L well to
the South as a separate tropical wave.
Here is the northern Leeward Islands.
This one's moving to the West,
northwest at 13 mph.
Pressure 1008.
Very discombobulated,
very broad circulation.
Satellite imagery here is not
all that impressive.
We are seeing some flare ups of convection.
You can see that with the cloud
top temperatures of yellow and
black here indicating very cold.
Cloud tops extending to a high altitude,
meaning they're stronger.
And if they start to wrap
around that center there,
we could certainly see this maybe
get an upgrade to tropical depression
or since it's somewhat near land,
it could certainly become another
potential tropical cyclone that we've
seen numerous times already this season.
Nonetheless,
the Hurricane Hunter aircraft staging
out of the US Virgin Islands is
currently in that system right now.
And I wish this actually was not laying
on top of each other because it does
show that they found winds of nearly
50 miles an hour within the center,
and their mission last night showed
a closed center of circulation.
Very broad and stretched out.
So we have the winds of at least 39 mph
that you need for a tropical storm,
and we have a closed center of circulation,
so we'll see if we get this
as an upgrade later today.
The next name on the list by the way,
is Earl, which would be the
5th named storm of the season.
Here's a look at it on
visible satellite imagery.
You can kind of see that center there.
It almost looks like there's a little bit
of some wind shear working that convection
off towards the east of that center there,
but nonetheless it does show
just kind of two like.
Two bulbs of convection,
one off to the West, another off to the east.
Potentially some wind shear.
Getting worked into the system as well.
Dry air, not so much of a problem.
It left a really dry air behind.
Far off to the east.
There and out ahead of it there
is some dry air, but not a ton,
very moist atmosphere in
its general vicinity.
At the current time.
In the atmospheric spin,
the relative vorticity is looking a
little bit more bundled at this hour,
which is indicative of these
closed circulation and it getting
a little bit more tightened up.
So that could be a sign of some organization.
There are the big question here,
and for a little while for the last few
days this looked like it was pretty much.
I don't want to say set in stone,
but close to it.
That would move off to the West,
Northwest and then take a turn
to the north taking advantage
of a weakness in the rich.
So what's propelling it to the West
is a big area of high pressure,
Bermuda, High Azores,
high in the middle of the Atlantic.
Pushing this to the West,
there's going to be a weakness in it so
that would allow this to escape to the north,
but check this out here.
These are all of our spaghetti plots.
Each line is a different computer model,
different run of a computer model.
Yesterday,
mostly all of these were showing
similar trends off to the West,
NW, North and then NE.
Now there's a handful on a growing number
of model members here that show it
continuing on a path farther to the West,
potentially impacting the Bahamas
here with a slower movement.
The overall steering pattern
is expected to break down.
So this is going to slow down,
meaning that it may miss that opening,
that weakness in the rich to drive north.
Check it out here on the GFS ensemble run.
So remember this is the GFS model.
On 30 different times changing
little variables to see if we get
a different outcome and there is
a developing split in the member
consensus here majority still
taking it along that N NE track
out to the southeast of Bermuda.
No threat to land.
Maybe some high surf in Bermuda
but then there was a growing
number again the outliers that
are taking it farther to the West
and potentially in the Bahamas.
So something to watch nothing set
in stone here so we'll see what
evolves as we go forward in time.
Anyway you should keep an eye
on this if you're
in the northern Leeward.
Plans for some tropical storm watches to
go up potentially within the next 48 hours.
Foursome, winds and some
rough surf in these areas,
so just keep an eye out for that.
If you're watching from the
Caribbean islands or the Bahamas
or the northern Leeward Islands,
keep an eye on this.
How do the model see things?
GFS and European comparison.
GFS here has been more bullish on this,
getting a stronger storm and then
lifting to the north and out to sea.
But I do want to show you that European
by Thursday still has it well to the far
South of what the GFS is depicting here.
So a big spread between our two long range
global models on where 91 L will go.
Still a lot of questions,
not many answers at this point in time.
I do want to jump over to the
Eastern Pacific because we've got
new brand new tropical storm Javier.
That should not be a problem
for any landmasses.
Well,
it is pretty close to the Baja California,
Mexico,
but that should be heading out to sea.
Away from that, it's this wave behind it.
It's got an 80% chance of developing here,
and I want to show you what the
models depict this one doing.
So there's Javier out to sea.
Here's that next wave really exploding
and then heading right up into the Baja
California by the end of next week.
And this could potentially throw
a lot of moisture into the desert
southwest of the United States.
So impacts from a tropical system,
likely not coming from the
Atlantic where we'd expect it,
but potentially from the eastern Pacific.
So something to keep an eye on as
we get into next week for some more
rainfall getting into the desert SW.
So until next time,
hope you enjoy your Labor Day weekend.
We'll have updates of course,
on the tropics throughout the
Labor Day weekend.
You could find me on social media,
Twitter, Instagram and on Facebook.
I'm also on on Tik T.O.K at Tim
T.O.K weather. A great Friday.