Finland's Unique Position in the World and Why It Can't Be Invaded by Russia
The Ukraine war has been going on for 80 days now.
Amidst the tension, Ukraine might not be the only country facing Russia's wrath.
On the sidelines of the Ukraine-Russia crisis, the ongoing developments in Nordic Europe,
related to the Ukrainian invasion, may just lead to further instability in the region.
Russia is alarmed by its western neighbors, mostly by Finland joining the NATO forces.
Putin attacked Ukraine to prevent the country from doing the same.
And now if Finland and Sweden follow the same course, it is a cause of major worry for the
Soviet nation.
Russia’s foreign ministry expressed its displeasure on the development saying that
if Sweden and Finland were to become members of NATO, it “would have serious military
and political consequences”.
Russia’s response came following NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s welcome of the formal
application by Sweden and Finland to join NATO.
In an event on May 18, 2022, the ambassadors of the two nations handed over the applications
to Stoltenberg at the NATO headquarters in Brussels.
While Stoltenberg welcomed the move dubbing it "a historic moment, which we must seize",
Putin certainly isn't too happy with it.
The applications are now up for discussion by
the 30 member countries.
It usually takes about 8 to 12 months for a country to finally become a member, given
there is general consensus on their candidature.
But with Russia increasing the heat, NATO really wants to get this done as quickly as
possible, maybe within a month or two.
The Kremlin has clearly expressed its displeasure about the move and threatened both countries
with the consequences.
However, Russian threats didn't seem to scare either Finland or Sweden from putting their
bids for NATO.
Even despite repeated threats from Russia, Finland is poised to join the U.S.-led NATO
military alliance.
The Finnish President and Prime Minister have already announced the Nordic nation's intention
to join the bloc, calling it "a historic day."
Finland now seems to ditch its decades of neutrality prompted directly by Putin's ongoing
assault on Ukraine.
The historic move which is also mirrored by Sweden will effectively double the length
of NATO's land border with Russia.
This is an alarming situation for Russia.
But the major question is, Can Russia stop Finland?
The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, which is primarily a military alliance, can
have serious military and political consequences, which would require Russia to make response
steps.
In this video, we will tell you about how Finland joining NATO might be a hard one to
digest for Russia and if Putin can actually do something about it?
But first, let's look at The Historical Backdrop
Both Finland and Sweden chose to remain militarily neutral since the second world war.
However, that stance changed when they joined the European Union in 1995.
But, by not joining NATO, both Finland and Sweden were upholding their policies of military
non-alignment till now.
However, over the past few years, the increase in Russian aggression has prompted discussions
of a potential NATO membership for them.
Both Finland and Sweden have deep historical, cultural, and economic ties with Russia.
Before 1917, Finland was a part of the current territories of Sweden and Russia.
Before that, until 1809, Finland was a part of Sweden for close to 700 years.
Finland became an autonomous part of the Russian Empire after the Finnish War of 1809.
However, the Winter War of 1939 and the Continuation War of 1941-1944 heavily changed the relations
between Finland and the Soviet Union.
Still, Finland's foreign policy positioned it as a neutral country during
the Cold War.
This treaty was instrumental in the Finland-Soviet relations from 1948 to 1992.
To honor the treaty and not provoke the Soviet Union, Finland also declined funding from
the Marshall Plan.
This treaty was signed under pressure from the Soviet Union, but the move granted Finland
enough freedom to become a prosperous democracy.
And hence, regardless of its difficult history with Russia, Finland chose not to join the
western security alliance.
Sweden also has historical relations with Russia.
The country has not joined a military alliance or participated in any war since 1814.
That is a period of peace spanning over 200 years.
After World War II, Sweden was at a crossroads regarding its foreign policy as traditional
powers fell and new powers arose.
But it played smart.
Rather than joining the U.S. or the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the country developed
a third way to ensure its defense and regional stability.
It went to countries like Norway and Denmark to strike a neutral alliance, but its attempts
to create a neutral Scandinavian Defense Alliance failed, with Norway and Denmark choosing to
align with NATO in 1948.
Sweden had no other choice but to return to its policy of neutrality, alone.
Till now, both Finland and Sweden have maintained that neutrality.
But what do the people of Finland want?
Estonia’s former President Toomas Hendrik Ives wrote a paper on the Finland- NATO membership
in 2018.
The papers indicate that the possibility of Finland joining NATO depends on how much its
citizens want that membership.
At that time, the popular opinion was against membership both in Finland and Sweden.
Those opposed to Swedish/Finnish membership in NATO at that time were of the view that
the Nordic countries could join “if things get serious”.
Of course, the security environment did not call for joining NATO but the sentiment was
that if the situation were to change, both the countries would join.
The invasion of Ukraine has provided both countries with the opportunity.
Even Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin had said in January 2022, that Finland did
not plan to join NATO soon but would be ready to stand with its European allies and the
United States.
The clouds of an impending attack on Ukraine were obvious at that point and hence, Marin
was inclined to impose tough sanctions on Russia if it were to attack Ukraine.
“It would have a very substantial impact and the sanctions would be extremely tough,”
Marin had said.
Marin had also said that Finland can assert its right to join NATO if it chooses to do
so in the future.
“Nobody can influence us, not the United States, not Russia, not anyone else,” Marin
had said.
She said her country is not deterred by any Russian nuclear threats but was instead being
driven by them.
"I think that within NATO, it gives us security when it comes to nuclear weapons because NATO
also has nuclear weapons," she said.
And then as things turned out, Russia went ahead to attack Ukraine.
And it won't be very pleased with Finland trying to join NATO.
Meanwhile, Finland also took a strong stand against the invasion of Ukraine.
Several top officials of the country have openly condemned Moscow’s aggression.
Just days before the invasion started, Finland’s President, Sauli Niinisto compared Putin to
Josef Stalin.
He said Putin is acting with Ukraine in the same way Stalin did with Finland in 1939.
And now, Sweden has also followed suit in its condemnation of the Russian invasion.
Both Finland and Sweden have even offered various kinds of assistance to Ukraine.
Just hours after the invasion started, President Niinisto spoke with Ukraine’s President
Volodymyr Zelensky and allocated $50 million in aid on behalf of Finland.
Finland’s foreign ministry also used the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between
the two countries to reaffirm support for Ukraine.
The Finnish MFA tweeted: "Today we celebrate 30 years of diplomatic relations between Finland
and Ukraine.
Finland’s support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is firm.
Wishing courage and strength to the leaders and the people of Ukraine during this difficult
time,”.
Finland is seeming to go against all the Russian policies.
Hence, it is all but imperative for Moscow to be concerned with the situation in its
Western neighborhood.
Why is Finland not in NATO?
Of the 27 EU members, Finland is one of just six that is not also a member of NATO.
The other five are Austria, Cyprus, Ireland, Malta, and Sweden.
Finland does have relations with NATO, but up until now has believed it does not need
NATO membership to remain secure.
However, Russia’s actions may be driving Finland towards a NATO membership.
At that time, even Sweden’s Foreign Minister Ann Linde had said that the government had
no such plans.
“These kinds of sudden changes based on fairly weak majorities, it’s not good.
It undermines the credibility of Swedish security policy."
However, now the Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson echoed Finland's sentiments telling
Sweden's assembled lawmakers that the "historic change in our country's security policy line"
was needed to secure "formal security guarantees" in the wake of Russia's attack on Ukraine.
Russia isn't too pleased with the development.
It has explicitly warned both countries to stay away from NATO.
The Russian Foreign Ministry took to Twitter to say: “Finland and Sweden should not base
their security on damaging the security of other countries and their accession to Nato
can have detrimental consequences and face some military and political consequences,”
"We regard the Finnish Government’s commitment to a military non-alignment policy as an important
factor in ensuring security and stability in northern Europe."
But both Sweden and Finland are not very stressed about the Russian threat.
As the Finnish President Sauli Niinisto said: “Finland’s room to maneuver and freedom
of choice also includes the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO
membership, should we so decide.”
Finland's former Prime Minister, Alexander Stubb, also echoed the same sentiments and
said “at this rate, we have no other option but to join”.
Even a recent public poll has suggested the majority of the population also now supports
Nato membership.
But why is Russia so threatened?
Russia has long considered NATO a threat.
Putin has defended its war in Ukraine mostly to push NATO back from its borders.
Now this tactic can backfire spectacularly if Finland and Sweden also happen to join
NATO.
Moscow has threatened to react with unspecified "military-technical measures" if the Nordic
states commit the "grave mistake" of joining NATO.
Russia has warned that "the general level of military tensions will increase" in Europe
if the alliance does expand on Russia's doorstep.
But, the threat doesn't seem to hold much value to Finland.
Russia's war on Ukraine has triggered Finland's decision to join the military alliance.
But it also has to do with a much broader shift in public opinion in the country that
can make it politically possible.
Before Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine on February 24, only around 20% of Finns supported
joining NATO.
Now, about 75% do.
The citizens do not seem to believe in Russia anymore, given its expansionist policies.
And hence, they would also want a strong alliance partner for their country, should Russia happen
to attack their country too.
Finland has had its wars, so it knows what war can do.
And hence, it needs to take all the measures to protect its citizens.
Russia might bring another war to Finland's soil, and hence it will always be better to
be safe than sorry.
The Russian-Finnish Winter War that took place from 1939 to 1940 created a strong belief
in the military prowess of Finland.
Finland also makes adolescent males report for a short and intense period of military
training, meaning it has a large and capable citizen military reserve.
The country also has measures in place for its defense.
It has built thousands of nuclear shelters across many cities in case of a nuclear attack.
These shelters are a legacy of Soviet Russia's invasion of Finland in the early 1940s.
There are almost 5,500 shelters in the capital city alone providing enough space to protect
more than 900,000 people.
Russia is a different country today, but its recent aggression against neighbors has made
some Finns glad to have these nuclear bunkers at their disposal.
Tomi Rask, of Finland's Civil Defense Department, said that just as Finns aren't afraid to venture
out onto the roads in the Nordic winter thanks to traffic lights, winter tires, and seat
belts, they aren't afraid of a new war with Russia, because they're prepared.
Joining NATO, the country's leaders and most of its people now believe, will make it even
better prepared.
The United States lauded Finnish leaders' decision to seek membership in NATO.
It believes that their participation will further strengthen the alliance.
The sheer speed with which Finland and Sweden are trying to join NATO is unprecedented.
But with Russia getting increasingly isolated and unpredictable, the leaders in both countries
are left with little choice.
According to reports, the public support in both Sweden and Finland for joining NATO has
increased over the past few years.
In December 2020, a Swedish parliamentary majority was in favor of readiness to join
NATO as a possible security policy option.
However, the Swedish government remained opposed to such a move.
To be granted NATO membership, the countries would need to demonstrate substantial public
support for the move which is quite possible now.
What are the chances of Russia invading Finland?
Russia has directly warned both Finland and Sweden against joining NATO, threatening military
action.
Ukraine joining NATO was also a huge touchpoint in its invasion.
But what are Vladimir Putin’s true intentions?
This is a question people across the world are asking, as his Russian forces continue
showering Ukraine with missiles.
Very few people on the planet know the answer.
There are fears that President Putin may not stop in Ukraine.
He may attempt to expand his empire into neighboring countries such as Moldova and Georgia.
Putin aims to reverse history and go back to Russia’s status as it was over 100 years
ago.
And this directly affects other neighbors like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.
Even the Baltic states, despite being Nato members, cannot be ruled out.
Another potential target is Finland, which shares an 830-mile border with Russia.
With the Ukrainian invasion not reaching any particular closure as of yet, Finland joining
NATO could be a massive problem for Putin.
But, he would have to tread rather cautiously.
Major world powers have not directly entered the Ukrainian war as of yet and they would
just be looking at further excuses to counter Russia globally.
And if Putin happens to invade Finland, it would be an ideal opportunity for the US and
the European nations to resort to a full-blown global war.
The UK defied the Russian warnings and had sent 'medium-range' rocket systems to Ukraine
at the start of the conflict.
Finland, like Ukraine, is not part of NATO.
It is, however, part of the EU.
The EU has a mutual defense clause for any member nation that is a “victim of armed
aggression on its territory”.
This means if Russia were to invade Finland, it could find itself at war with all 27 EU
member states, which could then engage Russian forces directly.
UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has said Britain will join its Baltic allies in moving from
“deterrence to the defense” on its borders.
"If Putin starts to slowly expand his empire, there will be several other NATO members that
are going to be getting extremely stressed out.
It’s very unclear at this stage that anyone can convince Putin to do anything other than
what he wants to do.
Lizz further stressed the UK's commitment to the Baltics and Article 5, describing it
as "unyielding.”
Meanwhile, Russia will also face a threat from NATO if it chooses to invade Finland.
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are all part of NATO.
And NATO uses a principle of collective defense under Article 5 of its treaty.
It means an attack against one NATO member is considered an attack against all.
Lizz said, "The UK is reinforcing NATO's eastern flank and supporting European security through
the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force.
We are here in the Baltic region.
We lead and have doubled our enhanced forward presence in Estonia.
Our allies are leading troops across the Baltics."
The Foreign Secretary echoed comments made by Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius
Landsbergis, who said it is vital the Baltic states move from “deterrence to defense”.
He also went on to stress the need for a change in political approach.
“We also need practical means for that and they are needed for all three Baltic states.
“So that if Putin decides to test NATO resistance in this region it would be responded to right
away.
“It would get a political response and also a clear defensive response if that would be
needed.”
These comments only imply that if Russia were to attempt to annex any of the Baltic states,
Nato would respond with full military might, plunging the West into a war with Russia.
What's next?
It isn't so easy to read Putin's mind.
While the Western powers are applying a lot of pressure on Putin, one can never be too
sure of his actions.
NATO and the EU didn't get too involved directly in the Ukrainian conflict.
But, the same can't be said if Putin happens to attack Finland next.
It might also be possible that the US and NATO are just about waiting for this to happen
so that they can unleash their full forces against Russia.
Even if Russia is a fully capable state to annex or invade its western neighbors, it
surely knows that it can blow into a massive world war.
And no state, not even Russia can afford it.
But given the shrewd mind of Putin, it can be said that he doesn't care about the consequences
too much.
But he might have to care about it this time around.
What will Putin do next depends heavily on what Russia can get out of Ukraine?
As of now, the invasion seems to be going nowhere with Ukrainian forces giving Russia
a hard time.
Will Putin's patience pay off for him?
Or will he try to invade Finland and Sweden out of desperation?
Well, only time will tell.
Let's see what happens.
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