On the battlefield, the war in Ukraine has been a major failure for Russia. Even so,
this is not the only bad political-military news the Kremlin has endured lately.
One of the main arguments Moscow used to try to justify its atrocious invasion was to prevent
NATO from continuing to expand eastward at all costs. According to the Russian government, this
was an absolutely unacceptable risk for them. Yet today, VisualPolitik viewers, things have
taken a 180-degree turn. The invasion of Ukraine made countries like Finland and
Sweden think about changing their status. If up until now they had preferred to stay independent,
the invasion convinced them that this was no longer advisable. They had to join NATO.
Finland did so in April 2023. tomorrow we will welcome Finland as the
31st member of NATO making Finland safer and our alliance
stronger we will raise the Finnish flag
for the first time here at the NATO headquarters
Sweden, however, has had it much harder... until now.
In the end, and despite all the back-and-forth that we will get
into in this video, Sweden will become the 32nd member of the Atlantic Alliance.
And, pay attention, because this is not something that Russia is at all amused about. In fact,
check out their typical reactions over the years. (18 June 2015: Russian Ambassador: If Sweden joins
NATO, there will be 'consequences'. "Putin pointed out that there will be consequences,
that Russia will have to resort to a military-type response and redirect
our troops and missiles," Russian Ambassador Viktor Tatarintsev said. – Business Insider)
(4 February 2016: Russia simulated nuclear attack on Sweden,
NATO admits –Telegraph) With an area of about 174,000
square miles or 450,000 square kilometers, and almost 11 million inhabitants, Sweden
is the third largest country in the European Union and the great Scandinavian powerhouse.
The question is, why is Sweden of such concern to the Kremlin? What exactly does the inclusion
of this country mean for NATO? Is this really something that Russia should be
concerned about? What will change from now on? Well, in this video we are going to answer all
these questions. And to understand this whole story, the first thing we need to do is to
start at the beginning. Let's get on with it.
(FROM EMPIRE TO NEUTRALITY)
In culture and in the popular imagination we tend to see Sweden as a calm and moderate state,
a bastion of social peace and a place synonymous with modern social democracy.
Of course, this was not always the case. This country’s past was much more... Intimidating.
The Swedish Empire was one of the most powerful European powers of the 17th century. At that
time its territory also included present-day Finland, Estonia and a large part of Norway.
But the question is, why are we telling you this on VisualPolitik? Well, because the
configuration of the current territory in this region of Europe responds to the events caused
by what is known as the "Great Northern War". We are talking about a conflict that took place
between 1700 and 1721. During those years the Swedish Empire maintained an armed conflict
against Russia, Denmark and Norway. They were fighting for supremacy in the Baltic Sea.
The conflict ended with the Treaty of Nystad in 1721. With this treaty,
Sweden was beaten down by Russian tsarism. And that's not all, a few decades later,
between 1808 and 1809 the so-called "Finnish War" broke out where Russia again prevailed
over Sweden. Following that war, the Grand Duchy of Finland came under the control of Russia.
And so, little by little, Russia became a great Baltic power. This sea ceased to
be a kind of exclusive lake of the Swedish Empire and over time became
the natural outlet of the Russian fleet to the seas of the world.
For its part, Sweden, starting in the 19th century and after having lost its
former imperial grandeur, adopted a policy of neutrality. The reorganization of the State
and the development of the country became its main priorities. We are talking about
a neutrality that for more than 150 years was basically only called into question during the
Second World War. Questioned but not broken. Officially, Sweden did not join either side.
And later, in 1949, when World War Two had already given way to the Cold War, Stockholm
opted to stay out of NATO and declared a security policy based on independence and neutrality.
In the 1990s, however, a wave of pro-European enthusiasm swept over Sweden, so that in 1995
the country finally decided to break with its historical State policy and join the European
Union. What’s more, although it remained outside NATO, it did strengthen its ties
with this organization. For example, during all these years it has participated as an "affiliate",
as an "ally" but not as a member in NATO missions in Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan and Libya.
And there’s even more. In 2007, Sweden joined Finland, Norway, Estonia, Ireland,
Latvia and Lithuania in the Nordic Battle Group (NBG), one of the European Union's battle groups,
whose headquarters are in the Swedish town of Enköping. A reserve group of 2,400 soldiers
from these countries is based there. In other words, Swedish neutrality began to
disappear at full speed. Something that, believe it or not, Vladimir Putin had nothing to do with.
And what, you may ask, did the Russian leader do? Well, basically, he did what he does best:
he launched a constant campaign of intimidation. His goal? To prevent Sweden from joining
the Atlantic Alliance at all costs. (11 September 2014: Russian military
actions in the Baltic "unprecedented." Polish Defense Minister Tomasz Siemoniak
said most of the activity took place in international waters and airspace
and Sweden was the most affected country – BBC) (24 March 2015: Sweden intercepts Russian military
aircraft flying with their transponders turned off over the Baltic region – Business Insider)
(26 October 2016: Russia beefs up Baltic Fleet amid NATO tensions. Sweden's defense minister
said his country was concerned about the warships' presence in the Baltic Sea,
and complained that the move would likely keep tensions in the region high – Reuters)
But why does Russia care so much about what countries like Finland or Sweden might
do? We'll get to that in a moment in this very video, and as I've already mentioned,
the implications of Swedish and Finnish membership are much greater than we might imagine.
But for now, what we have to be clear about is that the Russian strategy has not worked.
The invasion of Ukraine unleashed unexpected consequences for Russia. If the Kremlin's goal
was to put its foot down, in the end, fear of the irrationality of the Russian bear made both
Finland and Sweden understand that all that talk of neutrality and going it alone was no
longer an option. Being part of NATO was the only real way to guarantee their security.
And guess what? As we say around here: No sooner said than done.
The NATO flag is already flying at the bases in Helsinki. But why has
Sweden's accession to NATO taken so long? Well, basically because there were pending
accounts. What exactly are we talking about? Well, we are going to look at that right now.
(PITFALLS ON THE ROAD)
VisualPolitik community, in order for a country to join NATO, all its members
have to agree and give their approval. With Finland, that was relatively easy,
but in the case of Sweden... Well, let's just say that two NATO member countries
were determined to make things not so simple. The first country has been Erdoğan's Turkey.
For months, the Turkish government has alleged that Sweden was backing and
harboring militants from Kurdish organizations that the Turkish government considers terrorist
groups and enemies of the State. In addition, until September 2022,
Sweden, too, maintained an embargo on arms sales against Turkey because
of Turkey's operations in northern Syria. And of course, with those two precedents...
It was clear that the negotiations were not going to be a piece of cake.
Nevertheless, on 11 September 2022, there was a change of political color in Sweden. The
government changed from the Social Democrats to a coalition of conservative parties. A
change that facilitated the passage of a new anti-terrorism law that among other things
limited Swedish support for the Kurdish cause. Later in October, delegates from the Swedish
and Turkish justice ministries met to discuss some possible extraditions demanded by Ankara.
And so, despite the historical friction, everything seemed to be going smoothly...
And so it was until January 2023, when everything blew up yet again. At that time a Danish activist
protested outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm and burned a copy of the Koran. This sparked major
protests in many Arab countries and unleashed the wrath of the Erdogan government. Check it out.
We will not say yes to Sweden's entry into NATO as long as you allow our holy book
the Quran to be burnt torn apart and to be done with the approval of your
security personnel Of course, some say
that all this was nothing more than a kind of second-rate theatrics. And so,
Turkey's refusal all this time to accept Sweden's accession may have been a response
not only to Ankara's poor relations with Stockholm, but above all with Washington.
Yes, yes, you heard me correctly. With Washington.
Let me explain. US-Turkey relations have been pretty bad for years. In fact,
President Biden had several arms sales packages to Turkey on the table for months pending approval.
Among them the sale of state-of-the-art F-16 aircraft. And since the US was so
intent on Sweden joining NATO once and for all, Surprise!:
(11 July 2023: US Clears Path for F-16 Sales to Turkey Amid NATO Expansion – WSJ)
You see, Turkey seems to have seized the opportunity to put pressure on Uncle Sam.
The other country that has also hindered Sweden's integration has been... Hungary.
[Erdogan and Orban, what a duo!] The fact is that, within the framework
of the European Union, Sweden is practically the antithesis of Hungary in practically everything:
from immigration, to LGBTI policies, to social and environmental policy or the
position regarding the war in Ukraine. (5 October 2016: Sweden threatens to sue
Hungary over asylum denials. Sweden's Justice Minister Morgan Johansson said
Sweden will challenge Hungary in court unless it starts accepting asylum seekers
from other EU countries – Euobserver) (20 February 2019: Sweden-Hungary relations
freeze as diplomatic row escalates. Sweden's Social Democratic Social Affairs Minister Annika
Strandhäll wrote on Twitter that Prime Minister Viktor Orban's seven-point family planning
policy "reeks of the 1930s" and that "what is happening in Hungary is alarming." – TheLocal)
Why object to Sweden coming into NATO? Because the political relation between
Sweden and Hungary is awfully wrong and we have to improve first. We would
not like to import conflict into NATO first so first manage the disagreements
between the two countries and then we are ready to support them
Be that as it may, in the end, Sweden will join NATO. And the question,
the most important question of all and one that we have yet to answer, is:
Why on earth is the accession of two relatively sparsely populated countries
like Sweden and Finland so important to NATO? Why do we say that this is
a huge blow to Russia's interests? Why did Moscow want to avoid this scenario
at all costs for years? Well, we are going to take
a look at that right now. (THE FINAL PIECE OF THE
PUZZLE)
Look at what a 2016 report by the Estonia-based International
Center for Defense and Security said. (Without [Sweden and Finland] in NATO,
the Alliance lacks strategic and operational depth in the region,
as well as sufficient capacity to exercise greater control over sea and air space in the Baltic Sea.
If Russia were to succeed in forcing Stockholm and Helsinki to stay out of a Baltic conflict,
NATO's response options would become even more limited. Closing NATO's Baltic Gap,
International Centre for Defence and Security.) But why is it so important for Sweden and Finland
to join NATO? Well, you can see the answer clearly on this map:
Following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the United States conducted a variety of war games to
look for strategic weaknesses on NATO's borders. These games showed that the Swedish island of
Gotland would play a key role in the hypothetical case of having to defend the Baltic republics.
If Russia were to cut off the Suwalki corridor and seize Gotland in order to deploy air defense
systems there, as you can see on the map, the Baltic republics would be practically trapped.
It would be very difficult to come to their aid. And it would not even be necessary to go
that far. With Russia preventing NATO from using that island, a hybrid attack against the Baltics,
even with unidentified troops as already happened in Crimea, could be a nightmare
for the Atlantic forces. This is, or rather was, one of Russia's great long-term trump cards.
And that is not all. The integration of Finland and, above all, Sweden into NATO also wipes out
most of Kaliningrad's strategic value. Now NATO could very easily cut off communications
between this territory and the rest of Russia. Let's just say that the Russian Baltic fleet
deployed here ceases to be able to move freely. And not only that. In such a conflict scenario,
Russia would not even be able to deliver supplies to this enclave.
And, take note, because this reinforces the idea that many analysts have that sooner or
later Kaliningrad will end up beyond Russia’s borders. Something we will
tell you about very soon on Patreon. As a matter of fact, the same is true
for the flow of goods in and out of the global market. Russia relies heavily on trade across
the Baltic to supply and sell its products to the rest of the world. Now those communications
will be subject to NATO's approval. And that's not all either. The Russian
air force's ability to reach positions in the rest of Europe will also be severely limited.
In other words, while for decades the Baltic Sea was a body of water controlled by Russia
that gave its navy and its air force access to the very heart of Europe, this is no longer the
case. The integration of Finland and Sweden into NATO has nipped that possibility in the bud.
In fact, NATO, Finland and Estonia have already announced ambitious plans to have the capacity
to close the Gulf of Finland if necessary Also, in 2022, Russia announced plans to
rebuild its maritime power in the area. Now those plans are dead in the water.
("With the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO, the Baltic Sea will be surrounded
by NATO member states. The goal of establishing Russian maritime power,
proclaimed again in 2022 with the publication of the new Russian naval doctrine,
would now be unfeasible in this strategically important region." – The German Institute for
International and Security Affairs (SWP)) And if, with all this, Russia's Baltic Fleet
is practically history, the future integration of Ukraine into NATO would make the same happen with
the Black Sea Fleet, but that is another matter. Sticking with the subject of Sweden, although
this country has a relatively small army, it brings to the alliance an important military
industry. And keep in mind that Swedish factories produce not only small weapons, but advanced
systems such as combat aircraft, missiles, tanks, submarines, warships and air defense platforms.
("We believe that we will contribute to the defense of the Allies. We don't have
an Armed Forces as numerous as Finland, but we have the most advanced technologies and
very powerful Defense companies" – Teppo Tauriainen, Swedish Ambassador to Spain)
In other words, Sweden's accession to NATO is without exaggeration one of the
biggest leaps in terms of security for the whole of Europe in recent decades.
Putin's special military operation saw Russia go from sharing just 841 km or 522 miles of
borders with NATO in 2021 to more than 2,100 km or 1,305 miles after Finland's entry. Now
the integration of Sweden will mean that it will also lose all its influence in the Baltic Sea. The
disaster in strategic terms is colossal. But now it's your turn: How do you think
Russia will respond to Sweden's NATO membership? Do you think the next step
should be to separate Kaliningrad from the rest of Russia? Leave us your impressions
in the comments and let's open a debate. And now if you found this video interesting,
don't forget to like it and subscribe to VisualPolitik if you haven't already done so.
Once again thank you very much for being there, All the best and see you next time.