In 2020, as covid-19 spread around the world...
...a different kind of epidemic was sweeping across America
Even as other crimes fell, murders spiked by 30%
It’s the biggest jump in modern history
You had this perfect, horrible storm that resulted...
...in the massive increase in violence around the country
And it didn’t stop there
Homicides kept going up in many areas of America in 2021
I’ve never seen so many guns in the neighbourhood
And in 2022, there are no signs the national murder rate is significantly falling
So what’s behind the huge surge in violence?
And what can America do to avoid this becoming the new normal?
Roseland, Chicago’s South Side
A few days ago, there was a shooting here
Retaliation could be on the way
They know that we coming, they know why we coming
Got the whole group out there. They getting everybody rallied up
We see guys standing out on the streets...
...we’re going to engage with them
They know that I know that they did something
Terrance Henderson isn’t here to take sides
He’s here to stop the bloodshed before it escalates
He’s an outreach worker from Chicago CRED...
...one of the city’s many violence-interruption organisations
Groups like this attempt to prevent shootings without relying on police
It’s a model that’s being implemented across America
We just know there is going to be more shootings that happen...
...if we don’t step in and intervene
When a shooting does take place...
...violence interrupters race to the scene to try to calm the situation down
We got guys in front
We got guys in the back
We watching for cuts through the alleyways...
...and we always have a guy that’s trailing...
...just to make sure that if we have to...
...get some guys out this area quickly, it’s able to happen real fast
Stop the violence! Put the guns down!
Blow your horns for peace
Our singular mission is first and foremost to reduce gun violence and assess...
...the most at risk to shoot or be shot individuals in these high-crime areas
It’s an urgent mission
Although Chicago has a reputation as a violence hot spot...
...it’s actually fairly typical for America
Murder rates are above pre-pandemic levels across the country
The spike in killings has undone...
...almost three decades of progress in which homicide rates declined in America
Some cities like Philadelphia are now experiencing murder rates not seen since the 1990s
Even in New York, one of America’s safest cities, murders rose by 47%
The worry is rises like this could become the new baseline nationwide
It’s kind of like trying to put the genie back in the bottle once it is out
Sociologists call murder rates ‘sticky’
Once they’re up, it’s hard to bring them back down
Something outreach workers like Terrance have seen first-hand
When it comes down to the violence in the neighbourhoods...
...one incident will definitely spiral into multiple incidents
It’s going to always be retaliatory actions
His experience is personal as well as professional
Like many violence interrupters, Terrance was once involved in a criminal lifestyle
That past helps him step in and diffuse potential violence
The way that we move as outreach workers...
...is similar to how we moved when we was in our criminal lifestyle...
...just without the crime
Terrance spends his time reaching out to those...
...most at risk of being involved in gun violence
I have absolutely done a lot of the things that they’ve done
The best outreach workers come from that lifestyle
What up? What y’all doing?
We out here promoting peace
Alright that works
I don’t want anyone to feel the way that I felt for years
One of the programme’s newest participants is Wesley
I was losing so many people around me at a young age
I lost about 5 to 6 people in my life...
...mostly to gang violence. I got more involved in the streets, I’ll say
In this kind of environment, violence-interruption organisations are crucial...
...offering services like life coaching to help young men control their anger
Using these tools help you develop...
...more tools in real time on how to get yourself out of situations
But the spread of covid-19 only made things harder
The local tensions that Wesley experienced...
...were exacerbated by the lockdowns
Some people weren’t surviving during the pandemic
It was hard for them to figure out what they were going to do...
...how they were going to eat, pay rent
So it was like every man for himself
Ain’t no clubs open, ain’t no activities going on outside
So you had a lot of guys that was building in frustration...
...and a lot of violence definitely escalated from that
Many services, including violence-interruption work, had to stop—or go online...
...often leaving those at risk of being involved in gun violence with nowhere to turn
But the murder spike is a problem that goes far beyond Chicago’s South Side
What was quite remarkable...
...was that it was in cities and towns, and suburbs and rural areas across the country
People of all races were affected...
...but due to long-standing inequalities, black communities bore the brunt of the problem
These issues don’t just exist in America
Many countries have deep-rooted...
...disparities in their cities, as well as left-behind rural areas
And much of the world implemented lockdowns
Yet almost nowhere else experienced a sharp spike in its murder rate like America did
In some countries the rate actually declined
So what is it about America that could have contributed to the rise?
One factor is guns
America has more of them than any other country
Guns even outnumber people
And during the pandemic, sales soared
People went to gun stores and went to the internet and started...
...ordering and purchasing guns at about the highest rate in history
And more guns tends to mean more murders
There’s been a number of studies actually in the last two years...
...that really prove that the increase in sales of guns and the availability of guns...
...directly correspond to the increase in gun violence
Guns were used in almost 80% of America’s murders in 2020...
...the highest percentage since at least 1968
I’ve never seen so many guns in a neighbourhood like how I see them today
So it’s all kind of different military-style weapons that’s out there
Gun-carrying in Chicago increased by a massive 110% in 2020...
...despite the state of Illinois having some of the country’s strictest firearm laws
Carrying a gun is almost second nature out here, where we stay
Everybody’s carrying a gun in the city
But I feel personally, 60-70% of people are carrying guns for their protection
Nobody is just walking around with a gun because it looks cool
The pandemic made people scared, so there’s a run on guns
2020 was a scary year for America...
...and it wasn’t just due to the pandemic
On May 25th George Floyd was murdered by a police officer in Minneapolis, Minnesota
His killing sparked mass protests across the country...
...and the world
It led America to question yet again how its police officers treat people of colour...
...and it may also have contributed to the rise in murders
The thing is, it’s happened before
Last time there was a murder spike was in 2015
That year saw high-profile protests after police killings of black men...
...including Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri
There is growing outrage tonight after an unarmed African-American teenager...
...was shot and killed by police in the Saint Louis suburb of Ferguson, Missouri...
...and Freddie Gray in Baltimore, Maryland
Freddie Gray died from a severe injury to his spinal cord
Cell-phone video shows police dragging him into a van
People have talked about the Ferguson effect when Mike Brown was killed by police
The increase in distrust in police and therefore an increase in violence
After 2015 the murder rate did fall...
...but it never fully returned to where it had been
When you have distrust in police, you make it very difficult for police to solve crimes
When you have grieving mothers in communities who’ve lost their young sons...
...and they aren’t receiving what they think is justice...
What do we want?
Peace!
When do we want it?
Now!
...that increases the distrust, and what happens over time is a feeling...
...that we cannot trust law enforcement...
...and we have to take justice into our own hands
And so it really increases this retaliatory cycle of violence
And then the distrust, which leads to less co-operation, which leads to less...
...solving of homicides, has its own vicious cycle
This is where groups like Chicago CRED come in
The violence-interruption model...
...is expanding across the country as an alternative to broken policing
We await for law enforcement to finish whatever investigative work that they do
And we just go around those areas and show support...
...try to find the victims and get them some support if they need it
So just to be able to be that extra added resource to the community
Between 2016 and the start of the pandemic...
...Chicago had seen a 36% decline in violent crime
While it’s hard to measure what exactly causes crime to rise and fall...
...studies in both Chicago and elsewhere suggest violence interruption...
...can help reduce shootings
But it’s an uphill struggle
As soon as Terrance gets back to the office, there are reports of more shots fired
I’ve just had a couple of calls and some hits on a possible incident...
...that if it did happen...
...the police ain’t there, then I make the call to get the clearance for us...
...to go through and do a shooting response
They may sometimes beat law enforcement to the scene of shootings...
...but violence interrupters aren’t meant to be a replacement
Despite losing a lot of trust, the police will always play a vital role in public safety
Yet to get the murder spike...
...back down, America may want to re-evaluate how it enforces the law
Police departments have to make a real effort...
...at improving, increasing, regaining the trust of the community
There must be an acknowledgment that the trust is broken
The police are supposed to be able to know their beats, walk...
...their beats, and know stakeholders...
...and be able to converse with them and get intel from them
Because that’s how it used to be
That’s what we’re missing right now
Change may be needed, but the surge in murders has rattled lawmakers across the country
Law-and-order politics are back
It’s time that the reign of criminals...
...who are destroying our city, it is time for it to come to an end
When people are scared, there is fear of violence...
...there is fear of serious crime
Unfortunately, police reform is a much more difficult discussion
When we look at the data...
...we actually see there is no need...
...for the bad old days of arrest everybody
There is a very small number of people who are driving gun violence in any particular city
It’s less than 1%
We have to focus our efforts really strictly on the people who are...
...at the very highest risk of violence, and that’s a small number of people
Tragically, the national murder rate shows no signs of dropping to pre-pandemic levels
So however America chooses to tackle it...
...the country urgently needs to do something before the spike becomes a plateau
People are just adapting to their situations
Not everybody is a monster
They’re not
I’m Daniel Knowles, The Economist’s Midwest correspondent
To read my special report on violent crime in America...
...click the link. Thanks for watching and don’t forget to subscribe