so i hope he talks about boltzmann brains in this video but if he doesn't you can bet that's what
we're going to be talking about because i love this whole idea and you know simulation stuff is
awesome but i think this boltzmann thing is even crazier it's fun as hell to think about so
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for that as well is reality real simulation argument we humans are unable to experience
the true nature of the universe unfiltered our senses and brains can only process a fraction
of the world so we have to use concepts and tools to learn about the true nature of reality
technological progress not only widened our knowledge about the universe it also made
us aware of unsettling possibilities in the future it might become possible to simulate
entire universes but if this is an option how can we know that it's not already happened what if we
are not creators but creations is it possible that we are not real and we don't even know it
if our current understanding of physics is correct then it's impossible to simulate the
whole universe with its trillions and trillions of things but we don't actually need to anyway we
only need enough universe to fool the inhabitants of our simulation into thinking that they're real
who needs billions of galaxies we only need the space our subjects are allowed to explore
the vast universe could just be a flat projection and they would have no way to know ah it could be
but i think if it was we'd be able to figure it out uh we've figured out probably crazier things
already so yes it definitely could be though what about small things like cells or bacteria
we don't really need them when you use a microscope what you see could be instantly created
same with atoms the chair you're sitting on right now does not need to be simulated
with quadrillions of atoms we just need the outermost layer of it it might be empty inside
until you decide to break it open your body might feel like it's filled with bubbly things
but it might be empty until you open it the minimum requirement for our simulation is
only the consciousness of our virtual humans our subjects just need to think the simulation is real
okay so are we being simulated well maybe but there are a few conditions that need to be met
obviously we have no authority over this topic so please take everything we say with a grain of salt
based on a modified version of the original simulation argument by nick bostrom
we have five assumptions for you if they're true you dear viewer are living in a simulation
assumption one it's possible to simulate consciousness
nobody knows what consciousness is i think it's possible for the sake of argument let's
assume that you could generate consciousness by simulating a brain brains are pretty complex
if you count every interaction between synapses as one operation your brain runs at about 10 to the
power of 17 or 100 million billion operations per second let's generously assume we need 10 to the
power of 20 operations to simulate one second of human consciousness but we don't want to simulate
just one human we want to simulate all of human history at once so we can skip around let's say
we want to simulate 200 billion humans with an average lifespan of 50 years one year has 30
million seconds times 50 years times 200 billion humans times 10 to the power of 20 operations
so we need a computer able to handle a million trillion trillion trillion operations per second
a computer like this is just impossible except maybe it isn't so let me tell you about these
boltzmann brains it's such a weird idea the real problem is basically just the combination of you
know infinite time which is a real possibility the universe might be infinite and you know you're
combining that with uh the probabilistic laws of quantum physics you combine the two you have
boltzmann brains and a big problem so in the far future there will you know there'll be particles
you know floating randomly around the universe governed by quantum mechanics every now and then
you know on route to eternity they'll sometimes bang into each other right and uh you know
some weird stuff will happen and it won't happen you know very often because they're mostly
fairly isolated in the far future but if you wait an infinitely long time very strange things can
happen one of those weird things right is that these particles could smash into each other
and create a human brain just out there in the void floating around and you know these brains
they can have a thought and it gets even stranger so now let's just think about that
brain well it's possible that it could have the exactly the same you know you know brain as you
the atoms are all arranged in the exact same way as your brain right now and you guys might
think that doesn't sound very likely right what's the probability of that well you know
when when you're waiting an infinitely long time the probability of that is essentially one
it's bound to happen this boltzmann brain stuff is pretty bothersome because if you actually you know
think about where do we come from like where did where did your brain come from right a lot of us
are going to think you know you know you're born and you blah blah you trace it all the way back
you know to the very beginning of the universe right and that's a cool story bro but you know the
number of the number of brains that can uh come about in that sort of manner right is actually
infinitesimal compared to you know the amount of brains that can form in the void if you're waiting
for eternity for an infinite amount of time so if you if you ask yourself you know which one are you
one's very rare like the one we talked about with the big bang the one we think or you know you're
one of those infinite brains floating in the void and since there's so many more of those you
know compared to the typical you know the one we think well then you're actually probably a brain
floating in the void you know who's just imagined this story everything you think you know right now
it's all imagined in this boltzmann brain it's completely possible it gets even weirder you know
listen to this so it it kind of ends up being a pretty self-defeating conclusion because
the only reason we even you know anticipate this possibility is due to the laws of you know nature
the laws of physics and cosmology and you just extrapolate right but if they're real then our
recollections of have all mine of having learnt you know general relativity quantum mechanics
that's also you know false it's not real and all the data that you know we thought supported
you know quantum mechanics and general relativity that's also just a particle
configuration of my brain right now so you see it winds up defeating all logic
a lot of physicists that you know take this seriously you know we don't we hope we're not
one of these boltzmann brains but what they use it for is to basically uh you know calibrate theories
you know so we can't arrive at this boltzmann brain scenario so it's useful but i am saying
it is possible that you're a boltzmann brain so this is all going to come back to the second law
of thermodynamics right so let's explain a little bit of physics here so you can understand this
you know it should really probably be called the second like tenancy you know the the most probable
uh tendency of the universe right because it's a probabilistic statement it's it's basically just
very likely that you know if you have a bunch of stuff you know it's going to evolve in a way that
increases its entropy right but it doesn't always go like that
it can be temporarily violated a good example is like you know a 50 50 scenario like coin flip
um you know how many times out of 100 do you think you're gonna get hit
right everyone knows it's roughly 50 50 right but you know it is possible to get 100 heads in a row
it's very unlikely but it is completely possible this is kind of how it is with the laws of physics
in the universe so just like the universe you know a move towards you know more complex
configurations of things to move towards order low entropy extremely unlikely completely possible so
if you combine that with infinite time what are you going to get that's right boltzmann brains
hopefully one day we can uh you know like just get rid of this idea and it doesn't end up being
you know a possibility and have some confidence back in physics but we're not there yet
it really is still a possibility assumption two technological progress will not stop anytime
soon if we assume that technological progress continues in a similar fashion as it has so far
then there might be galaxy spanning civilizations with unlimited computer power at some point
beings on a technology level so advanced that we could barely distinguish them from gods
a computer that can handle a million trillion trillion trillion operations is serious business
but there are actually concepts for computers which could handle this
the matriasca brain is a theoretical megastructure made up of billions of parts orbiting a star
feeding on its radiation a computer of this scale would have enough power to simulate many thousands
if not millions of humanities at the same time other technologies like high-end future quantum
computers might lower the size drastically so it might be possible to do this with a structure the
size of a large city or even smaller but only if there's still someone around to build the computer
assumption three advanced civilizations don't destroy themselves if there is a point at which
all civilizations destroy themselves this one's not looking good this whole discussion ends here
looking into space you'd expect a universe filled with millions of alien civilizations
but we see nobody not necessarily the reason for this might be great filters great filters are bad
we watched his video on the great filter so you should go check that out is life
has to overcome like nuclear war asteroids climate change or a black hole generator
if life is inherently self-destructive then there are no simulations we explain this in more detail
in our fermi paradox video assumption 4 super advanced civilizations want to run simulations
when we speak of post-human civilizations we don't know what we're dealing with to think
we know what beings as powerful as gods want is pretty arrogant imagine the smartest ant on earth
living next to an amusement don't you think if you had the power to create such simulations of like a
realistic universe why would you ever like sprawl out amongst the universe why wouldn't you then
just create it in a computer adjust the rules a little bit so it's you know a little bit more
enjoyable or something that seems more logical to me rather than trying to do
something that's really hard which is you know getting to other star systems if you have that
sort of power it almost seems better to just hang around your planet you know make sure stuff's you
know gonna be fine for a long time and then uh simulate all kinds of incredibly fun places right
park it's curious about what humans are up to so you try to explain unfortunately the ant just
doesn't understand the concept of roller coasters and standing in lines and holidays and fun doesn't
make sense to an ant living and and life it's the same with us and a post-human being compared to
them we are ants running simulations for fun or science might be an absurdly stupid idea to them
but if they do want to run simulations for whatever reasons and assumptions one
to three are true too then the chances are not zero that you are living inside a simulation
assumption 5 if there are a lot of simulations you are probably inside a simulation
if there are simulated civilizations it's likely that there are a lot of them
after all we assume that post human beings have access to practically unlimited computing power
so if they run simulations it would be convenient to run millions or even billions of them
if there are billions of simulated universes there are probably trillions and trillions
of simulated conscious beings which would mean that the vast majority of all conscious beings
that will ever have existed are simulated so for every conscious being made of flesh
a billion simulated ones exist since we have no way of knowing if we are simulated or not
in this case the chances of you being one of the 999 million 999 999 simulated ones are pretty high
so what you consider reality might not be real at all you really might be simulated all of this
is based on a lot of assumptions that we can't really test right now so many scientists disagree
with this whole thought experiment so don't burn your house down to test if there will be glitches
if you are simulated not that much changes for you you might be on a small planet speeding through
eternal nothingness or a simulation inside a computer your existence does not become more
or less scary and bizarre all we can hope to do is try to live good lives and have a good time
and hope that if we actually are simulations in a supercomputer nobody trips over the power cable
oh oh oh no i think i just unplugged the simulation but what if that doesn't matter
what if we are in one right now what if you are simulated so we've already done a video
on this you know idea of a simulation so if you want to hear me talk about it you know far more
extensively go check out this matrix video i made where we talk about lots of crazy stuff