If the quantity produced goes up,
the money supply goes up,
and then also the velocity goes up,
what is going to happen?
The prices are going to increase.
The purchasing power of the US dollar is going to decrease.
And then, ladies and gentlemen,
I can tell you,
all of these models here are going to be invalidated.
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In this video, we're going to be discussing the price of Bitcoin
and why we're not even close to the top of the market.
Exciting times ahead.
I brought on Chris from MMCrypto YouTube channel to give us his thoughts.
So let's go ahead and jump in.
Hey, everybody! Welcome back to the show.
Today, I have got Chris from MMCrypto on the channel to talk Bitcoin.
And a lot of people are kind of floundering right now with the Bitcoin price,
wanting to know where it's going to go.
Other people are saying bull market's over. We got rejected again at $60K.
I want to know, Chris, what is happening in crypto, but, first, of course, welcome to the channel.
Thank you very much for having me.
I have actually prepared something very crazy for your channel really.
I took some time before the recording.
And I'm pretty sure that people will be pumped about that.
Thanks for having me, of course. Beautiful to be here.
Let's go straight into the content, man.
Yeah, let's do it. And just a reminder to everybody, if you want to subscribe to Chris's channel,
you can do that down in the link below.
Make sure you subscribe to his channel before you get this great content.
Thanks, man. Thanks. Yeah.
You know what?
- I will just start sharing my screen here. - Okay.
As I've said, I have something as prepared.
Let's go over into my chart here.
- So what we can see here, - Perfect.
and I already talked about that on my channel,
is I have something to add here.
This is actually a chart which is predicting right now that the bull market is over.
I have some evidence for you that we are not only going to break through also.
I have evidence that we are going to blast through and exceed everyone's expectations.
I want to talk about price targets as well, but before, I wanted to go into the short term
- because everyone is wondering where's Bitcoin going today, tomorrow. - Right.
So let me talk a little bit about what's happening here.
So first of all, you probably recognize that we got rejected here at the all-time high,
- at this visible resistance. - Yup.
Where's it coming from? Why did we get rejected?
And is it already over? Well,
the bears might say "yes" and I can actually-- I have news. The technicals are saying yes.
The technicals are even saying, "Well, maybe the bull market is over."
But as I said, I will come to that later on, right?
Personally, I am very bullish on Bitcoin still.
I am having all my trades open.
I'm betting on higher price targets for Bitcoin.
First of all, you can see here, we got this dump down,
and Bitcoin is already forming something like a W pattern.
I would say we are on crossroads right now.
This is just the 4-hourly candles.
When you bring it out, maybe we are already a little bit, a little bit lower.
The bottom line is if we are breaking above this specific level here,
let me mention it exactly which one it is,
the $58,474,
then I actually see good chances of this W to continue and also to complete at $60,600.
This will put us actually at a higher high.
And basically the last psychological resistance above is only the all-time high, right?
So if this W continues bullish in the immediate short term for Bitcoin,
also great news would be in this specific bullish case
that we are getting above the EMA ribbon on the 4-hourly,
and we just went below, got rejected,
and Bitcoin is going up for another retest.
Only in case we stay below, it would flip bearish.
And something like this scenario here,
or something like this scenario here could actually evolve.
But right now, we can see Bitcoin showing some strength,
getting back above and, well,
the bullish scenario which we are all hoping for is probably coming here into fruition
because, on the flip side, it's just horrifying
because if we would be breaking below here,
let me quickly show you the VPVR
just for the immediate short term, but, guys, stick until the end,
I think the long term is here much more interesting,
you can see at the previous low is the last class of support actually.
So if we were to break below here,
the next one is at the VPVR, and that's at the point of control,
the $47,500 levels.
This would bring us below the previous low and would actually activate basically
an M pattern breakdown, right?
I'm not looking out for that.
I will update you if something like this is happening.
So far, it is not looking all too bad for Bitcoin
as we are basically-- let me quickly show you just to give you some context, man.
- We're just 6% below the all-time high, right? - Yeah.
And people are already going crazy.
So that's it for the short term.
Of course, there was a potential long trade involved
for everyone who is interested in that,
but, of course, play from a position of strength and don't get too greedy here.
Let me evaluate on this.
I don't know many people saw it.
I made a video that got like 120,000, 130,000 views.
It was very popular.
This is the monthly candles on Bitcoin.
And, BitBoy, please interrupt me if you have a question,
if you want to say anything.
- This is a truly interesting thing. - No, I'm just watching.
I'm amazed right now.
I'm just watching. I'm taking it all in.
Exactly, and please, guys, watch until the end.
First of all, it sounds very apocalyptic, but I have very good news for you.
So you have here every single candlestick actually representing one month.
And as you can see, it's the perfect fit.
I tried to play around with that orange line.
If I'm zooming out, you can try to pull it up, but then the previous high here is not fitting anymore.
So this is the perfect fit.
- However you draw it. However you pull it. - Yeah.
And you can see here,
the first touch point in May 2011.
Then we had another one in '13
and, of course, the famous one in December 2017 with the CME futures launch and the bear market.
Every single time, that's the bottom line,
we hit it,
then very next month, Bitcoin was starting the bear market.
Well, it is the next month.
Technically, we should start the bear market now just judging from the history for Bitcoin, right?
Why do I think that this time it's different?
And it's one of the most dangerous things to say as an investor, "This time it's different,"
because the laws of the market are not changing and usually it's a foolish thing to say
because things are never changing.
In this case, yes,
because Bitcoin is the first asset where things are different.
Bitcoin is the first asset where you cannot inflate the maximum supply over a specific amount.
I mean, everything has an order book, right?
Even this bottle of glass.
If the demand for water is increasing,
well, in a capitalistic system, someone is coming,
rent-seeking and producing more of that water inflating the supply, right?
For Bitcoin, you have elastic demand at a fixed supply.
Usually, you have always both sides being elastic.
And that's why the only point of regulation is the price.
That is why I think the stock-to-flow model,
models like this one here I was just showing you,
are going to be invalidated in this specific point of time here.
And the reason for that is one thing.
I want to show you this mod-- this thing here.
It's very easy to understand. I will just talk about it a few seconds.
But this is basically the law of money.
How is the price of the purchasing power of the US dollar going higher or lower?
It all comes down to this.
Everyone who's following me knows I'm basically an economist.
I was studying economics back in the days.
You have the demand side of money, and you have the supply side of money.
So you have the money supply,
the circulation, the velocity, v, the velocity of which this money is in circulation.
So whenever you spend money,
you are increasing the velocity.
Whenever you are hoarding money,
you are decreasing the velocity.
Then, of course, the price representing also the purchasing power
and the quantity produced.
So what was happening last year in March when this C pandemic started?
- I don't want to say it. - Yeah.
I don't think YouTube likes it, but what--
what has ever happened then?
Well, the quantity produced was just skyrocketing.
Of course, the money supply was skyrocketing.
Why are the prices-- they are increasing,
but why are they not as much increasing as the quantity?
Because the circulation, the velocity,
the speed in which money is in circulation is not increasing that heavily.
And this is why I want to show you this chart here.
It's economic data.
You can see this orange field here,
it's the start of the pandemic.
Whenever they started, the velocity actually went significantly lower off the money,
so because we have these lockdowns,
people are not spending their money as much and as fast as usual.
This is why they are printing, printing, printing,
and we are not seeing this very, very high inflation.
Only like 10%, right?
- It should be 20%, 30%, 40% - Yeah.
because that's actually the speed of the expansion of the monetary supply.
So I can tell you something.
When this V's, I don't want to say the name again, are coming out,
and the lockdowns are going to stop,
well, what is going to happen?
People are going to continue and start spending their money much faster again.
If the velocity goes up, and now let's go back into this law of nature here,
if the quantity produced goes up,
the money supply goes up,
and then also the velocity goes up,
what is going to happen?
The prices are going to increase.
The purchasing power of the US dollar is going to decrease.
And then, ladies and gentlemen,
I can tell you,
all of these models here are going to be invalidated,
and I think it is going to happen this time here
because this time, not only things are different with Bitcoin as an asset,
which is absolutely scarce,
no, we have this unseen, political and economical environment right now.
We have unseen money printing.
And we have, for the first time in history, a complete new group of buyers
buying something which is absolutely scarce.
And these group of buyers,
they have infinite currency.
It's Michael Saylor who can lend against the Bitcoin he's already holding.
Yeah.
When you have something which is infinite like the US dollar
and something which is absolutely finite like Bitcoin,
then I can tell you, guys, sky's the limit.
And this is what I wanted you to tell you.
This is why $62,000, in my opinion, is by far--
I can be wrong, guys. Make your own research--
is by far not the top for Bitcoin.
This is why I'm looking personally for prices
I was saying in the beginning of the bull market
before I knew about these lockdowns,
before I knew how crazy the money printing is going,
I was predicting $200,000, $300,000.
I think we are going to blast through that.
I think we are going to exceed everyone's expectations.
And I think we are going to see prices which you and me, BitBoy,
we have never dreamed of before.
And, yeah, let me know what you think about that.
Well, if it's bigger than you and me have dreamed of,
I mean, who knows how high it can be?
Because we're being dreamers, I think.
Yeah, I mean, Chris, I think you've hit the nail on the head here which is
at some point, all these residual effects of the money printing
is going to drastically increase the price of Bitcoin,
and, you know, a lot of people--
if people remember John McAfee's famous bet that he made
that if Bitcoin didn't hit a million dollars by, I think it was by 2020,
that he was going to eat something.
And, you know, the funny thing is, about that, is of course he didn't do the bet,
or whatever, and he would have lost,
but his argument the whole time was not
the value of Bitcoin was going to drastically increase.
It was that the value of the dollar was going to drastically decrease.
And he said that four years ago.
And so it's just interesting to see it all playing out.
And I also agree with you. It is a little concerning when we see these types of charts,
but charts are meant to be broken,
and eventually, you know, we are going to see even these logarithmic moves come down.
So I'm very excited to see where it's going to go this year.
Obviously, the money printing can only help it.
You know, a lot of people are angry about our political situation over here,
but if you're in Bitcoin, the people in charge, they just keep printing the money,
you've got to be thankful for them, so.
Chris, anything else you want to add today?
Yeah, just a quick thing.
Now that we know that all of these models are probably going to be invalidated
because, well, you are measuring against the US dollar.
What is the right approach?
Because we all like these price prediction models.
It's giving us a glimpse into the future, right?
I would personally use something like this here.
- A quick shout out to Digitalik. - Yeah.
It's completely free to use website.
And gold versus Bitcoin, it's the stock-to-flow model,
but instead of plotting Bitcoin against the US dollar,
you plot Bitcoin against ounces of gold.
And, well, in a system where currency is going to be printed,
and gold is just going to increase as much,
well, you might as well compare Bitcoin to an asset which is at least
close to be as scarce as Bitcoin.
And this is probably the closest we can get.
And as you can see, even on that chart, Bitcoin is increasing in ounces,
and if ounces are increasing in dollars,
then, of course, we can already project
that something like hyperinflation is going to loom here on the horizon for Bitcoin.
And I think this is maybe one of these price models we can still look at it four years or in eight years.
Yeah.
And I think hyperinflation is something that I'm very concerned about here in America.
But the funny thing is all of our top economists say there's nothing to worry about.
They say America is too strong. It just can't happen.
But, you know, it certainly happened in Germany in the 1920s,
which was a pretty powerful country as well.
- So you never know exactly how it's going to-- - It's the last man standing, man.
US might be the last man standing, but like in the end of the day,
the whole monetary system is probably going to collapse.
It's just about who is going to fall first.
Well, it was third world countries with Venezuela and so on.
Now, second world countries are starting, Argentina.
And in the end, it's going to roll over to Europe, and then it's going to be the US probably.
Nothing goes up in a straight line forever.
And the currency supply is doing that right now.
Yeah, absolutely. Very concerning. They're having to change the models.
Having to change the currency models because they're going too insane for the charts.
Well, Chris, as always, thanks for joining us.
And, guys, make sure to subscribe to Chris's channel down below in the video description.
Everybody, let me know what you guys want us to talk about next week.
Always excited to have Chris come on and talk some charts and some big ideas like hyperinflation.
So, everybody, drop those comments down below.
That's all I got.
Be blessed.
BitBoy out.