New reporting out of Ukraine indicates that Russia seems to be
retreating in its invasion, although they're trying to spin it as
an effort to move closer to peace negotiations.
Regardless of what their intentions are here any
movement away from parts of Ukraine is a good update.
But let me tell you what they're saying, what Russian officials are saying, and
then we'll kind of debunk some of the narratives coming from the Kremlin.
So, as Reuters reports, Russia promised on Tuesday meeting today to
scale down military operations around Ukraine's capital and north,
while Kiev proposed adopting neutral status in confidence building
steps that were the first signs of progress toward negotiating peace.
So, so far it sounds rosy, it sounds like things are headed in the right direction.
But I want you all to keep in mind how much Vladimir Putin really
miscalculated this war.
The fact that the economic sanctions have in fact taken a toll on Russia,
including its oligarchs.
And there's also a clear signs that now the military
in Ukraine is no longer playing defense.
There recapturing territory that was taken over by Russia and
we'll get to those details in just a second.
Now, Russia's deputy Defense Minister said this, in order to increase mutual
trust and create the necessary conditions for further negotiations and
achieving the ultimate goal of agreeing and signing an agreement.
A decision was made to radically by a large margin reduce
military activity in the Kiev and Chernihiv directions.
Now, they're saying that they're gonna retreat from essentially
the northern part of Ukraine.
However, we're still seeing pretty heavy and
aggressive fighting in the eastern portion of Ukraine.
And notably that statement didn't mention where we're seeing
the heavy fighting places like Kharkiv, Sumi and yes, Mariupol as well.
One US official says, that the real rationale behind this announcement isn't
about peace, but it's more about the fact that Vladimir Putin is losing.
So he's looking for
a way out this US official who didn't go on the record with his or
her name said, we believe any movement of Russian forces from around Kyiv.
A redeployment is a redeployment not to withdraw.
They are shifting gears and
probably because they failed with their initial offensive.
So Cenk I actually think that that analysis or
that statement from that unnamed US official is correct.
I think that Putin is obviously having a hard time in certain portions of Ukraine.
And so they don't have the funding necessary to continue on with this so
called military operation.
So, I can totally see him really focusing his efforts on eastern Ukraine while
kind of retreating from the northern portion.
>> Yeah, so, I think that statement is accurate, although not that helpful.
Another retired general talked about how Russia is getting its ass kicked.
I'm cool with that kind of talk, because the reality is there isn't that much
of a difference between losing and peace.
I mean you get to peace either by someone winning or getting to a stalemate
situation where both sides realize there isn't much more to gain here.
So let's get to a negotiated settlement.
You don't often get the peace in the middle of
war because one side had a change of heart, that's just not how it works.
So, the fact that he's losing is what's leading to peace and that's great news.
So, I don't want people to lose sight of what the story is about.
This is fantastic news.
So if the Russians are really withdrawing to Eastern Ukraine,
it doesn't mean the war is over.
It doesn't mean that they won't do tremendous damage.
It doesn't mean that they're gonna get to an easy peace settlement.
But it does mean that they are no longer trying to take all of Ukraine and
that the Ukrainians that did a brilliant job of standing up to them.
And are now, actively driving them east.
And the chances of peace now are much greater than they were obviously
during the initial invasion or really any time up until now.
So this is terrific news.
>> Right, and I understand the importance of of drawing that distinction, right?
What the real purpose is for
Vladimir Putin retreating from the northern portion of Ukraine.
It's because you want to ensure that what Putin is doing
is based on a genuine good faith effort to negotiate a peace deal.
And if that's not the case, well, it's very possible that once everyone's
guard is down, he might pursue the northern portion of Ukraine again, right?
Like I understand like wanting to really decipher what the intentions are here.
And I think that the analysis is right.
I agree with you.
I don't think those statements are very helpful,
especially when you're dealing with someone like Vladimir Putin who has,
I mean he's very similar to Donald Trump in that he has thin skin.
He's a narcissist and egomaniac and you don't want to persuade him to
continue acting irrationally and to continue with this war.
But at the same time, I do think that the way Biden has handled this so
far based on what we know, how he has managed to kind of toe that line
to avoid any type of escalation, how he's refused to do a no fly zone,
how he's prevented this from turning into a serious nuclear threat.
That is not an easy task to do.
I would not have expected that Biden of all people would know how to tow that
line as well as he has with this particular issue.
But it seems like the sanctions are working.
And it seems like Vladimir Putin deciding to surround himself with a bunch
of yes men who constantly tell him exactly what he wants to hear, is not really
a smart strategy if you wanna make informed decisions on an invasion.
>> Yeah, so look, my overall point is take the win.
So, for the generals talking about kicking Russian ass.
No, no, no, no, don't go them.
What are you doing?
Like, if their withdrawn, let them withdraw,
there's no reason to antagonize anybody.
Let's make this war as short as possible.
And then, secondly, does Putin need a face saving gesture?
Of course he does.
He like people always like pretend that there's only one country like
our domestic politics matters.
But Ukraine domestic politics,
that maybe that they matter a little bit because they're our allies.
But Russian domestic politics don't matter at all.
No, Russian domestic politics are really, really important to ending the war.
So, if Putin can find a way of saying yes, we have taken new breakaway Republics and
we did exactly what our goal was that will allow him to leave good.
Is it true?
It's definitely not true.
He clearly wanted all of Ukraine.
That's why they tried to surround Kyiv,
that's why they bombed the most western cities.
That's why they had a 40 mile caravan of tanks.
And 200,000 ground troops.
It's definitely not true.
But who cares?
It's good that he is falling back on a position that is less
than taking all of Ukraine.
That is a terrific development that we should encourage.
And then finally, look, why is Biden so competent here.
I'm not naive about it.
It's because corporate interests are aligned and
they're both aligned internally.
All the corporations agree, what's best generally speaking for them, right?
There might be some dissenters.
The defense contractors presumably would like a longer war.
But overall, most of the other corporate interests are on the side of let's resolve
this relatively quickly.
So we can get to continuing trade and by the and most importantly for
Europe to get its oil and gas from our corporations versus Russian corporations.
And so, that seems to have been accomplished.
So, corporations are coincidentally on the correct moral side of the issue here.
Now they wanna end the war and cement those deals.
So that is why you're seeing the Biden administration show competence.
Because when there are corporate interests involved, they're perfectly competent.
So for example, if they wanna defeat $15 minimum wage while pretending to be in
favor of it so they can do marketing.
When they wanna defeat progressives, you've seen Democrats be very,
very competent.
The only times they are incompetent is when golly G we just couldn't
find a way to get you guys higher wages or health care,
I guess drug companies are gonna continue to make all that money.
And the Chamber of Commerce is gonna be really, really happy ghali G.
It's a feigned incompetence.
And you see here where it matters both from a foreign policy perspective and
from a corporate perspective, the Biden administration was perfectly competent.