THAT BUT AN ICONIC FASHION NAME,
KATE SPADE AT 55 IS DEAD.
>>> MEANTIME ECONOMISTS ARE
LOOKING AT THE ECONOMY SAYING
THIS CAN'T GO ON VERY LONG, THAT
IS THIS RECOVERY THAT SEEMS NO
BOUND OF THE BY 2020 THE VIEW OF
THESE ECONOMISTS IT END.
THAT WILL BE YEAR OF RECESSION.
IF SO, LONGEST STRETCH WE'VE
SEEN IN POSTWAR ENVIRONMENT
WITHOUT A SLUMP OR RECESSION OR
TWO BACK-TO-BACK QUARTERS OF
CONTRACTION.
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR
BUSINESS ECONOMISTS SURVEY
ANALYST JACK KLEIN.
JACK, VERY GOOD TO HAVE YOU.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN, JACK?
THEY'RE SAYING BY 2020 YOU COULD
MAKE A CASE, CERTAINLY BY THEN
THAT IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY BUT
WHAT ARE THEY BASING IT ON?
>> I THINK IT'S A POSSIBILITY
AND IT IS THE BEST GUESS WE HAVE
THAT BY END OF 2019 OR EARLY
2020 THAT THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THAT WE MIGHT SEE
THE END.
OF COURSE WE ARE BEGINNING THE
SECOND LONGEST EXPANSION RIGHT
NOW AS WE GET INTO 2018.
THE GROWTH RATE WE'RE SEEING FOR
2017 IS NOT A BAD PACE.
CERTAINLY AT ABOUT 2.8% FOR THIS
YEAR AND 2.7% FOR 2019.
WE NEED TO RECOGNIZE THAT THE
ECONOMY IS FUNCTIONING FAIRLY
WELL.
NEIL: YOU COULD MAKE THE
ARGUMENT THINGS ARE PICKING UP A
LITTLE BIT.
ONE QUARTER DOES NOT A TREND
MAKE.
NEIL: WE'VE SEEN TRENDS, ALL OF
SUDDEN EMPLOYMENT REPORT,
INCLUDING THOSE AT THE ATLANTA
FED SAYING WE COULD SEE 4 1/2%
CLIP ACTIVITY.
FIRST OF ALL, DO YOU SEE THAT?
DOES THAT TYPE OF DATA PUSH THIS
DOOMSDAY SCENARIO BACK A BIT?
>> I THINK THERE IS DATA IN THE
SURVEY THAT SUGGESTS IT COULD
PUSH THINGS BACK.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION SENTIMENT
AT 20182.83% WHICH WE HAVEN'T
SEEN IN SOME SOMETIME AND
INVESTMENT IN NON-RESIDENTIAL
EXPENDITURES AND CAPITAL X, IS
VERY STRONG, 5.8%.
THAT COULD CARRY US ALONG.
DON'T FORGET THE DRIVER OF THE
ECONOMY CONTINUES TO BE THE
CONSUMER.
WE SAW IN THE SURVEY SUGGESTS
THAT WE HAVE 2.6% GROWTH RATE IN
CONSUMER SPENDING IF 2018.
IT IS A LITTLE BEHIND WHERE WE
SAY THREE MONTHS AGO, THAT HAS
TO REFLECT WE HAD A SOFTER FIRST
QUARTER.
I THINK AS WE LOOK AT SORT OF A
NUMBER OF FACTORS AND LOOK AT
SOME OF THE DATA THAT CAME OUT
LAST WEEK, NEIL, FOR INSTANCE,
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING WAS UP.
WE HAD VERY GOOD, THE DATA ON
RETAIL SPENDING EARLIER IN THE
MONTH.
WE THINK ABOUT THE DATA ON
MANUFACTURING LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD.
SO I THINK THERE IS A NUMBER OF
METRICS OUT THERE THAT REALLY
KIND OF SUPPORT THE
UNDERPINNINGS OF THE SURVEY.
NEIL: YOU KNOW, JACK, IT IS
ALWAYS DANGEROUS FOR ME TO SAY
IT IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME
BECAUSE PEOPLE ALWAYS REGRET
SAYING THAT BUT THE NOTE ON THIS
RECOVERY WAS MAYBE GIVEN THE
SEVERE RECESSION PRECEDED IT, IT
WAS SLOW.
IT WAS STEADY.
IT WAS RESPECTABLE.
IT WASN'T GANGBUSTERS THOUGH.
BECAUSE IT WAS SUCH A TEPID
RECOVERY, IT HAD LONGER LEGS.
AND THAT 2020 THING COULD BE
OFF, MAYBE BY YEARS.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> YEAH.
IT IS VERY POSSIBLE.
I MEAN, AGAIN, IT IS A
PROBABILITY FUNCTION FOR US.
NEIL: SURE.
>> IT IS OUR BEST GUESS WHEN
THIS COULD HAPPEN.
WE NEED TO NOTICE IN THE SURVEY
THERE ARE SOME RISKS AS WE LOOK
OUT OVER THE NEXT
YEAR-AND-A-HALF.
CERTAINLY TRADE POLICY IS ONE OF
THEM.
WE SEE THAT WE'RE WALKING UP
INTEREST RATES.
INFLATION IS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER
AS WE GO FORWARD.
SO ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE
CERTAINLY ENTERING INTO OUR
PERCEPTION OF HOW THE ECONOMY IS
GOING TO PERFORM.
BUT I THINK, YOU KNOW, IT'S NOT
100% PROBABILITY.
IT IS A MEDIAN ESTIMATE OF WHAT
WE THINK IS BEST EXPECTED AND IT
COULD BE PUSHED BACK AS YOU'RE
SAYING, NEIL.
I WOULD ARGUE THAT IS A GOOD
IDEA TO THINK ABOUT IT IN THAT
FASHION.
NEIL: THANK YOU VERY, VERY MUCH,
JACK.
THANK YOU FOR TAKING THE TIME.
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR