It was the deadliest day in the country since the military coup.
At least 114 people were killed by security forces, among them a 5-year-old boy.
Meanwhile, the country's military junta staged a show of might,
marking "Armed Forces Day." Among those attending the
parade in the capital Naypyitaw were officials from India, Russia, and China.
When the military seized power in Myanmar on February 1, detaining elected officials,
including the country's de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi, Chinese state media
avoided calling the coup a coup – instead reporting on a "major cabinet reshuffle."
Some anti-coup protesters have since accused Beijing of supporting the coup and the junta.
Demonstrations have been staged in front of the Chinese Embassy in Yangon.
So – what are China's interests in Myanmar?
And what does this mean for international efforts to stop the bloodshed in the country?
China has no [direct] access to the Indian Ocean. And so there are only two access points for China
to the Indian Ocean. One is Pakistan, which is a strategic ally of China. And then the
other is Burma [Myanmar]. The Burmese port is very vital for the Chinese.
Burma is a major strategic pipelined zone. Geostrategic interests could be one of the reasons
why China – along with Russia – has so far stopped the UN Security Council from taking stronger
action against the military junta in Myanmar. But there are other reasons, too.
China doesn't like protests. That's one thing – the logic that China doesn't support regime
change, even if the regimes are illegitimate, even if the regimes have taken over the power in a coup
like in Myanmar. It is still not the right of the people to overthrow a government – this is China's
reading of international relations. For China, the alternative to Tatmadaw
[the Burmese military] is a total anarchy. In a March resolution, the UN security council did
condemn the violence in Myanmar. It also called for the immediate release of Aung San Suu Kyi
and other members of the elected government. But it stopped short of condemning the coup.
The EU, the US and other countries have imposed their own sanctions against the military junta.
But Human Rights organizations, such as Amnesty International, are calling for
a stronger international response. So the question becomes – what can
the international community do without China? China is the biggest player. So without China,
it would be super difficult to do anything. And that is why China remains the key player.
This is a political fiction, but there would have to be a sort of effort to convince China to
change its position and to do it well, to convince China that Tatmadawis a part of the problem, not
the solution. But that would be super difficult given the current international circumstances.
There should be established a coalition of states with conscience and concerns – like what NATO
did in its backyard when a Serbian army and a Bosnian militia were jointly committing genocide
against Bosnian Muslims and back in the 1990s. I think the language that the military
understands, is the language of military intervention.
One of the languages protesters in Myanmar have mastered is that of social networks.
#WeNeedR2PInMyanmar is one of the hashtags often used by those opposing the coup.
R2P stands for Responsibility to Protect, a global political commitment by UN Member states to end
the worst forms of violence and persecution. It is absolutely impressive that the
Burmese people survived already so long protesting and being killed on the streets.
But the international circumstances are not favorable for the protesters. Unfortunately,
there is little hope that the external world can help the Burmese people.
If Western countries impose further sanctions on Myanmar,
that might actually end up benefiting China. China would be the biggest winner, because if the
generals win [against the protesters], then there will be a repetition of the situation after 1988
with Myanmar isolated internationally, at least from the West, with sanctions introduced on
Myanmar. And this isolation would play well into the hands of the Chinese because the
Chinese would then be in a much stronger position vis a vis the Burmese generals. I think
there is very little the divided world can do to resolve this dramatic situation in Myanmar right
now.